May 072013

6E 06-13 (1 Min)  3_22_2013

3/22/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast:  107.8
Actual: 106.7
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 1.2914
1st Peak @ 1.2927 – 0401 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2900 – 0401 (1 min)
-27 ticks

Notes:  The reading came in 1.1 points below the forecast to disappoint.  This caused an indecisive reaction for unknown reasons, but it was the second such occurrence in the last 3 events, even though the last 7 were safe.  Due to the trend, this will be a RISK 4 for the immediate future.  We saw a quick pop of 13 ticks, then a reversal of 27 ticks to stop us out.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.2920 with 2 ticks of slippage.  Then it would have reversed immediately to hit the stop loss and opposite entry at the same time.  This would have activated the “knife switch” to prevent any follow on orders (stop losses) from presenting on the chart.  After the indecisive :01 bar, it chopped higher in the next 2.5 hrs in spite of the bearish news.  This is another indication of underlying conditions that created the indecision in the first place.