May 032012

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

5/3/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Started @ 1.3147
1st Peak @ 1.3161 – 0146 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3147 – 0148 (3 min)
14 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1.00% in line with all economists expectations. Mario Draghi did not hint at any move, and stuck to the baseline scenario of recovery Where LTRO is allowed to run its course. With little mystery before or after the rate announcement, the 6E made a quick jump for 14 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot, then fell to the starting point 2 bars later with nothing in the news able to sustain the bulls and the resistance powerful. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.3155 with about 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with a few ticks at the S1 Pivot. With all the indicators there as it stalled on the gain, get out before it reverses. Notice the drop after the Press conference started at 0230, followed by a 30 min strong rally. This was due to the eventual realization that the ECB was not acting in any fashion to ease.