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10/3/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.6M
Actual: -0.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.55
1st Peak @ 89.90 – 0432 (2 min)
35 ticks
Reversal to 88.64 – 0503 (33 min)
126 ticks
Notes: Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a moderate long spike for 35 ticks in 2 min. The spike went against the grain of the bearish dive to hit the 50 SMA, but could not rally any higher. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 89.69 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 12-18 ticks as it hovered around 89.85 for several seconds. As the market was already in a downtrend, the reversal quickly took over and fell methodically over the next 30 min for 126 ticks.