-101812.jpg "Click to enlarge")
10/18/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 367K
Actual: 388K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.15
1st Peak @ 92.05 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks
2nd Peak @ 91.84 – 0236 (6 min)
31 ticks
Reversal to 92.18 – 0243 (13 min)
34 ticks
Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 21K jobs. This was partly anticipated due to the artificially low report from the previous week which excluded California. Since the market was already bearish in the very short term, the initial spike was small, but the next few bars made up for it to deliver 31 ticks total. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 92.08 with no slippage, then seen it hover just below your fill for the rest of the bar. You could play it conservatively and close out with a tick or 2, or check the result, and patiently wait for a larger reaction due to the disappointing result. The S1 Pivot is a convenient target, so set your buy limit there. The reversal was able to bounce back for 34 ticks in about 7 min.