5/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.0
Actual: 50.7
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.96
1st Peak @ 91.06 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks
Reversal to 90.87 – 1001 (1 min)
-19 ticks
2nd Peak @ 91.26 – 1005 (5 min)
30 ticks
Reversal to 90.83 – 1018 (18 min)
43 ticks
Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast causing a small but indecisive :01 bar as it spiked long for 10 ticks, then reversed for 19 ticks and settled near where it started. After the :01 bar, it rallied for 20 more ticks up to the 100 SMA in 4 more min. Then it reversed for 43 ticks in 13 min down to the low established a few min before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with 1 tick of slippage at 91.02. You would have seen it hover between 90.96 and 91.06 in the first 20 sec, before it would have taken out your stop loss if left alone at 90.90. You could play this 2 ways…1) move the stop up and look to close out near Breakeven after the observed hovering, or 2) Note the low at 90.82 that held as a level of support a few min before the report and move the stop to 90.81 (21 ticks risk), then wait for about 10 ticks on the following bars as this report reaction always pans out slowly and there is no resistance barrier until the 100 SMA. You could exit around 92.12 to 91.17 on the :03 bar.