Caption for 3/1:
3/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 52.7
Actual:54.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.62
1st Peak @ 90.87 – 1001 (1 min)
25 ticks
Reversal to 90.58 – 1005 (5 min)
29 ticks
Final Peak @ 91.10 – 1108 (68 min)
48 ticks
Reversal to 90.29 – 1146 (106 min)
81 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a healthy margin and rose above 54 for the strongest reading in 8 months. This caused a 25 tick spike on the :01 bar that crossed the 50 SMA near the origin, and the 100/200 SMAs near the top of the bar. Eclipsing the SMAs caused it to retreat sharply in the next 54 min to just below the origin. Then after a failed second attempt, it was able to breakout long on the third try for 48 ticks on a slow developing 2nd peak. Then it reversed for 81 ticks in about 30 min to extend the LOD by 15 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 2 ticks of slippage at 90.71. Note the location of the 100 and 200 SMA, then place your exit just above the 200 SMA at about 90.84 for 13 ticks. With the bullish news, and the double bottom that the CL had established prior to the report at 90.55, buying the dips below the 50 SMA would be a smart play.