Monthly Retail Sales | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.2.2015

Sep 062015

9/2/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.6%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -3.10B
Actual: -2.46B
Previous Revision: -0.12B to -3.05B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.7036 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7005 – 2130:11 (1 min)
)))-31 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7026 – 2130:18 (1 min)
)))21 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.6998 – 2139 (9 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.7025 – 2236 (66 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7017 (in between the PP / S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.7056 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The retail sales report fell well short of the forecast by 0.5% with a modest downward previous revision while the trade balance report exceeded the forecast by a modest margin. The retail sentiment dominated the reaction as it fell 31 ticks in 11 sec. It crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the S1 Pivot before reversing. This would have filled the long entry at 0.7017 then hit the 10 tick stop just a few sec later. It reversed 21 ticks in 7 sec to the PP Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 8 min. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 57 min as it crossed the PP Pivot / 100 SMA.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.1.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_1_2015

10/1/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7019 – move 2 ticks lower to 0.7017
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7030 – 2130:34 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7022 – 2130:47 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7028 – 2131:21 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7018 – 2144 (14 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.7027 – 2146 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.7009 – 2213 (43 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7005 (on the OOD) / 0.6997 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7029 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7039 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7029 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7022 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7018 – just below the PP Pivot – move up after the hovering.

Notes: Delayed release of about 30 sec. Still a nice inner tier trap trade that fell off of the R1 Mid Pivot on a matching report.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_3_2015

11/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -2.85B
Actual: -2.32B
Previous Revision: +0.39B to -2.71B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7169 – shift up 4 ticks to 0.7173
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7181 – 1930:28 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7174 – 1932:06 (3 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7181 – 1935 (5 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.7165 – 2009 (39 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7157 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7190 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small reaction due to the second match in 2 months on Rtl sales. Good reversal trade opportunity after the double top at 1935.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12_3_2015

12/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7335
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7346 – 1930:09 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7333 – 1931:18 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7339 – 1932:02 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7319 – 2021 (51 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7325 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.7315 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7346 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7356 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7046 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7334 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7332 to 0.7336 (in between the 100/200 SMAs)

Notes: Good setup for 10+ ticks on the reversal. Nice reversal after the pullback could not go above the 200 SMA.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.7.2016

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 142016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1_7_2016

1/7/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.6996 – shift up 5 ticks to 0.7001
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.6992 – 1930:02 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7002 – 1930:52 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7319 – 2021 (51 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.6991 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.6980 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7012 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.7020 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching report caused a nice whipsaw that was a couple of ticks short of the inner long tier. Cancel the order.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Feb 242014

2/5/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -0.27B
Actual: 0.47B
Previous Revision: +0.20B to 0.08B
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.8912 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8896 – 1930:04 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8946 – 1931:04 (2 min)
)))50 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.8930 – 1933 (3 min)
16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8959 – 1943 (13 min)
63 ticks

Pullback to 0.8939 – 2046 (76 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8897 (below the OOD/HOD and above the 200 SMA) / 0.8887 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8929 (on the R2 Pivot) / 0.8937 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report matched the forecast with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report strongly exceeded the forecast by 0.74B, with a sizeable upward previous report revision. This caused a dip downward of 16 ticks that quickly reversed course after hitting the 200 SMA, OOD and LOD to nearly reach the R3 Mid Pivot just after the :31 bar expired. Your inner tier long entry should have filled then given you about 30 ticks on the reversal long if you left it unchanged. If you moved it further up, as many as 50 ticks could have been captured easily. After the top was established, it pulled back 16 ticks on the next 2 bars before gearing up for an extended reversal of 13 more ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it traded sideways above the R3 Mid Pivot and eventually retreated to the 100 SMA about an hour later.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.2.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 192013

12/2/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.9%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9106
1st Peak @ 0.9123 – 1931 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9106 – 1936 (6 min)
17 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9077 – 2025 (55 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a safe and decisive long spike for 17 ticks. The peak crossed the PP Pivot and no SMAs as the market was already trending slightly upward. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9112 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 0.9120 as it hovered in that area near the top on two occasions for a profit of 8 ticks. After the :31 bar, it started reversing and returned to the origin and the 50 SMA in the next 5 min as the resistance of the PP Pivot weighed in. After a brief attempt for a 2nd peak that fell short, it fell into an extended reversal for 46 ticks in the next 45 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it retreated back to the S1 Mid Pivot and traded sideways as volume dried up.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.3.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 012013

11/3/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9440
1st Peak @ 0.9466 – 1931 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.9456 – 1943 (13 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9468 – 2004 (34 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.9453 – 2034 (64 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.3%, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a safe and decisive long spike for 26 ticks. A second safe report is a good sign of a trend back to safety. The peak crossed the R2 Mid Pivot and no SMAs as the market was already trending upward. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9450 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 0.9460 with 10 ticks when it hovered for 12 sec. After the :31 bar, it mostly remained between the HOD and the R2 Mid Pivot as it reversed for 10 ticks to the 20 SMA, then rebounded for 2 additonal ticks on the 2nd peak in 30 min. The final reversal gave 15 ticks back to the 100 SMA after another 30 min. Beyond that, it returned to trade between the HOD and the R2 Mid Pivot.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9.30.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 222013

9/30/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9272
1st Peak @ 0.9289 – 2131 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9279 – 2148 (18 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, with no previous report revision. This caused a safe and decisive long spike for 17 ticks. This is a welcome result after 3 straight indecisive reports. The peak crossed the PP Pivot and the HOD at 0.9287 and held its gain. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9279 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 0.9287 with 8 ticks. After the :31 bar, it traded sideways just under the PP Pivot for about 12 min before falling 10 ticks back to the OOD. After that it traded sideways between the OOD and HOD for hours.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 9.2.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Sep 292013

Caption for 9/2:

9/2/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9011
Fake Spike @ 0.9017 – 2131 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.8990 – 2131 (1 min)
21 ticks (from origin)

2nd Peak @ 0.8984 – 2138 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.8999 – 2149 (19 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8964 – 2217 (47 min)
47 ticks
Reversal to 0.8977 – 2229 (59 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.3%, with no previous report revision while accompanied by another lesser influential report that was also bearish. This caused a small bump long for 6 ticks, followed by the true short move of 21 ticks. This report used to be a tame and reliable opportunity, but since June it has been unsafe. The initial long move may have been noise, but the thin Asian trading session makes it hard to determine. The 1st peak crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the R2 Mid Pivot, before retreating to the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9016 with about 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with a 10 tick loss with no slippage as it fell. After the :01 bar, it continued to fall for a 2nd peak to 0.8984 on the :38 bar at the OOD. Then it reversed back to the 200 SMA for 15 ticks in 11 min, before falling for a final peak of 47 total ticks in about 30 min. After that it chopped sideways as volume dried up.

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