Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.7.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/7/2015 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.7%
Actual: 7.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 11.5%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8048
1st Peak @ 0.8066 – 1931:18 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.8060 – 1933 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8068 – 1938 (8 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.8051 – 2000 (30 min)
17 ticks

Double Top @ 0.8068 – 2007 (37 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.8054 – 2033 (63 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast to cause a long spike of 18 ticks that started on the R1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD. It gained 15 ticks in 7 sec, then struggled for the remaining 3 ticks in the next minute. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 0.8055 with 4 ticks of slippage, then allowed about 6 ticks to be captured on a conservative quick exit or about 10 ticks with a target placed just above the R1 Pivot. After a small 6 tick reversal, it climbed for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 6 min. After treading water around the R1 Pivot, it reversed 17 ticks in 22 min as it crossed the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a double top in 7 min followed by reversal of 14 ticks to the 100 SMA.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.2.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jul 262015

7/2/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7612 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7596 – 2130:10 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7603 – 2130:50 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7585 – 2132:10 (3 min)
-18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7593 – 2133:14 (4 min)
8 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7583 – 2143 (13 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7600 (just below the LOD) / 0.7590 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7622 (just above the HOD) / 0.7632 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast by 0.2% with a 0.1% downward revision. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks in 10 sec that started on the 100 SMAs and fell to cross the 200 SMA, R1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. This would have filled the inner long entry then quickly reversed and fallen to settle about 1-3 ticks in the red. It hovered for 40 sec to allow plenty of time to exit there. Then it fell another 11 ticks in the next 2 min to cross the PP Pivot before reversing 8 ticks in 1 min. After trading sideways for 7 min, it fell 8 ticks as it approached the CNY Services PMI report.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.7.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jul 272015

7/7/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor point @ 0.7448 (on the S2 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7465 – 0030:25 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7435 – 0031:26 (2 min)
)))-30 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7459 – 0032:55 (3 min)
)))24 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7441 – 0047 (17 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7471 – 0133 (63 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.7457 – 0146 (76 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7413 (in between the S3 / S3 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.7480 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: After the last 4 reports had much volatility and larger moves, we used a single larger tier of 35 ticks. The RBA made no major change in this cycle after previous action. This caused a 17 tick long spike in 25 sec that started on the S2 Mid Pivot200 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA near the origin, then reach the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing. This would have fallen short of the tier, but it did hover for 10 sec near the top before reversing to allow an adjusted short entry at about 0.7462. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 1 min to cross the S2 Pivot / LOD to allow up to 25 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 24 ticks in 1 min to cross the S1 Pivot before reversing 18 ticks in 14 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 46 min before reversing 14 ticks in 13 min.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.13.2015

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Aug 092015

7/13/2015 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 10
Previous Revision: +1 to 8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7379
1st Peak @ 0.7394 – 2130:46 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7389 – 2032 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7407 – 2217 (47 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.7398 – 2220 (50 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts higher than last month with a reading of 10 along with an upward previous revision. This caused a 15 tick long spike in 46 sec that started on the 13 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.7382 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with about 11 ticks of profit where it hovered at the peak just above the R1 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 5 ticks before stepping higher for a final peak of 13 more ticks in 45 min as it eclipsed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 9 ticks in 3 min to the 50 SMA and traded sideways as volume dried up.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.20.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Sep 042015

7/20/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7354
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7345 – 2130:06 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7363 – 2130:27 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7338 – 2136 (6 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7346 – 2141 (11 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7335 – 2148 (18 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7349 – 2209 (39 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7338 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7370 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short move (opposite of the cash rate from 2 weeks ago) of 9 ticks that crossed the PP Pivot and hit the LOD before reversing. Due to the last several months seeing larger volatility and reactions we just used the outer tier. This would have made the report dull as it did not get near the tier so cancel the order. It reversed 18 ticks in 21 sec as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 5 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 8 ticks in 5 min to the 13 SMA. After that it fell for a final peak of 3 more ticks in 7 min before reversing 14 ticks in 21 min to the 100/200 SMAs.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.22.2014

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jul 312014

7/22/2014 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9351
1st Peak@ 0.9396 – 2130:13 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.9380 – 2130:41 (1 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9404 – 2141 (11 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.9395 – 2153 (23 min)
9 ticks

Notes: This report was a match across the board but still brought the bulls off of the bench for large long spike. This resulted in a quick large long spike that rose for 45 ticks in 13 sec, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and the recommended limit order, you would have filled long at about 0.9360 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 0.9392 with 32 ticks, near the R2 Mid Pivot when it hovered for about 8 sec. After the peak, it backed off by 16 ticks to the R1 Pivot late in the :31 bar. Then it climbed for a final peak of 8 more ticks in the next 10 min. As the volume and volatility calmed down, we saw only a small reversal of 9 ticks while it remained near 0.9400.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 12.1.2014

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 042015

12/1/2014 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: 5.2%
Actual: 11.4%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -11.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8481
1st Peak @ 0.8496 – 1930:02 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.8481 – 1936 (6 min)
15 ticks

Continued reversal to 0.8472 – 1945 (15 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report came in at the highest level in over a year to cause a long spike of 15 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD in 2 sec. It backed off about 10 ticks, then rebounded quickly to hover around the HOD position. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 0.8488 with 4 ticks of slippage, then allowed about 5 ticks to be captured when it hovered for over 30 sec. After that it reversed 15 ticks in 5 min to the 100 SMA, then another 9 ticks in the next 9 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.2.2014

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 042015

11/2/2014 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.9%
Actual: -11.0%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 3.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8727
1st Peak @ 0.8704 – 1930:06 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.8713 – 1932 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8685 – 1946 (16 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.8706 – 1952 (22 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8680 – 2002 (32 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 0.8697 – 2004 (34 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in very disappointing to cause a short spike of 23 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD in 6 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 0.8724 with no slippage, then allowed up to 16 ticks to be captured when it hovered near the bottom for over 30 sec. After that it reversed 9 ticks in 1 min to the S2 Mid Pivot, before falling another 19 ticks on a 2nd peak in 14 min as it crossed the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA before falling for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 10 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 2 min to the S2 Pivot.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.30.2015

Quarterly PPI Comments Off

Sep 052015

7/30/2015 Quarterly PPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7279 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span – 0.7279
)))1 tick
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7271 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7263 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7287 (just below the HOD) / 0.7294 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 0.1% higher than the forecast to cause a dull initial reaction that failed to move but did move modestly short over the next 20 min to the LOD. Cancel the order with no fill after 20 sec.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Sep 062015

8/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -3.06B
Actual: -2.93B
Previous Revision: +0.07B to -2.68B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7252 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7277 – 2130:03 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7259 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7274 – 2131:45 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7265 – 2134 (4 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7285 – 2206 (36 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.7276 – 2213 (43 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7233(just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7272 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Both reports exceeded the forecast with the retail sales by 0.2% and 0.13B with trade balance. This caused a long spike of 25 ticks in 3 sec that reached the R2 Mid Pivot and reversed. This would have filled the short entry at 0.7272 after 3 sec. Then it fell quickly 18 ticks to the OOD but pulled back. This would have allowed about 5 ticks to be captured where it hovered at 0.7267. After that it pulled back 15 ticks in 2 min before reversing 9 ticks in 2 min. Then it climbed for a final peak of 8 more ticks in 32 min before reversing 9 ticks in 7 min.

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