Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.2.2015

Sep 062015

9/2/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.6%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -3.10B
Actual: -2.46B
Previous Revision: -0.12B to -3.05B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.7036 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7005 – 2130:11 (1 min)
)))-31 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7026 – 2130:18 (1 min)
)))21 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.6998 – 2139 (9 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.7025 – 2236 (66 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7017 (in between the PP / S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.7056 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The retail sales report fell well short of the forecast by 0.5% with a modest downward previous revision while the trade balance report exceeded the forecast by a modest margin. The retail sentiment dominated the reaction as it fell 31 ticks in 11 sec. It crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the S1 Pivot before reversing. This would have filled the long entry at 0.7017 then hit the 10 tick stop just a few sec later. It reversed 21 ticks in 7 sec to the PP Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 8 min. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 57 min as it crossed the PP Pivot / 100 SMA.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.6.2015

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Sep 062015

8/6/2015 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7334
1st Peak @ 0.7352 – 2130:30 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7340 – 2132 (2 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7365 – 2231 (61 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.7359 – 2245 (75 min)
6 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia and its major trading partners has continued to grow after the slackening in 2nd quarter. This caused a long move of 18 ticks that started after 20 sec and peaked 10 sec later at the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have been filled long at 0.7337 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit near the top where it hovered at 0.7350 with 13 ticks. After that it reversed 12 ticks in 1 min before stepping higher for a final peak of 13 more ticks in about an hour. Then it reversed 6 ticks in 14 min and traded sideways.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.4.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Sep 062015

8/4/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor point @ 0.7280
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7291 – 0030:13 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7284 – 0030:16 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7314 – 0032:46 (3 min)
)))30 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7301 – 0036 (6 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7369 – 0223 (113 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 0.7357 – 0242 (132 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7260 (in between the PP Pivot / OOD) / 0.7247 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7302 (on the R3 Mid Pivot) / 0.7317 (on the R3 Pivot)

Notes: The RBA made no major change in this cycle but signaled the AUD 22% drop against the USD was doing enough to boost the economy. This caused a 11 tick long spike in 13 sec that started on the R2 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the R2 Pivot / HOD. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 3 sec before climbing 30 ticks in the next 2 min to nearly reach the R3 Pivot. Cancel the order as it did not approach the inner short entry until the :31 bar was expiring and it was slowly approaching. It developed into an Upward Fan as it stepped higher for another 55 ticks in about 2 hrs. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 19 min.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.1.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Sep 062015

9/1/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7129
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7150 – 0030:23 (1 min)
)))21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7140 – 0031:04 (2 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7150 – 0031:16 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7130 – 0033 (3 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 0.7148 – 0033 (3 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7116 – 0123 (53 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7108 (in between the PP Pivot / OOD) / 0.7096 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 0.7149 (in between the R2 / R2 Mid Pivots) / 0.7162 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The RBA made no major change in this cycle and is waiting to see when the FED will act to raise rates for the USD. This caused a 21 tick long spike in 23 sec that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the R2 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 41 sec before pulling back for a double top. This would have filled the inner short tier as long as it was placed at 0.7150 or lower. Then is would have allowed for an exit with 5-9 ticks on the first reversal, or up to 17 ticks on the second reversal. The second reversal fell 20 ticks from the double top to the 100 SMA before pulling back 18 ticks. Then it reversed 32 ticks in 50 min after crossing the R1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.5.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Sep 062015

8/5/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.2K
Employment Change Actual: 38.5K
Previous Revision: -0.3K to 7.0K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.3%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 6.1%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7338
1st Peak @ 0.7383 – 2130:03 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.7316 – 2136 (6 min)
67 ticks

Pullback to 0.7333 – 2138 (8 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Strongly bullish report with 38.5k jobs gained – 28K above the forecast offset by a 0.2 worsening in the rate while the previous report was revised worse. This caused a long spike of 45 ticks that crossed the R2 Mid Pivot and was shortly sustained due to the conflicting results. The jobs numbers bear more sway and caused the initial rise, then the rate caused the quick and strong reversal. With JOBB and an 8 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 0.7354 with 8 ticks of slippage. This is where a profit target is crucial as a setting of 28 ticks or less would have filled. A larger profit target or no profit target would have seen the best possible exit with 20 ticks (if immediate), but more likely between 5 and 10 ticks as the :31 bar progressed. The reversal fell a total of 67 ticks in 6 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 2 min and traded sideways.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.10.2015

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Sep 062015

8/10/2015 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 4
Previous Revision: -2 to 8
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7358
1st Peak @ 0.7349 – 2130:15 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.7357 – 2130:48 (1 min)
8 ticks

Double Bottom @ 0.7348 – 2132 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.7372 – 2135 (5 min)
24 ticks

Triple Bottom @ 0.7348 – 2139 (9 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report came in 6 pts lower than last month with a reading of 4 along with an large downward previous revision. This occurred just after a large short move in the market of 69 ticks in 10 min and a subsequent pullback. Then the report caused a 9 tick short spike in 15 sec that started just above the S1 Pivot and fell to the LOD. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 0.7354 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with about 3-4 ticks of profit where it hovered at the peak just above the LOD. After that it reversed 8 ticks before falling for a double bottom 1 min later. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 3 min to the 20 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot before falling for a triple bottom 4 min later. Then it stepped lower in the next hour due to the continued sentiment from the original short move.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.9.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9_9_2015 6A 09-15 (Second) 9_9_2015

9/9/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 5.2K
Employment Change Actual: 17.4K
Previous Revision: +0.7K to 39.2K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 6.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.6949
1st Peak @ 0.6986 – 2132:14 (3 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 0.6967 – 2136 (6 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7010 – 2337 (127 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 0.6991 – 0040 (190 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.6957 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.6985 – 28 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.6987 (in between the OOD / HOD) – move lower to just below the S2 Pivot.

Notes: Spike was initially choppy as the 200 SMA and S3 Mid Pivot held sway. Then it broke away and peaked after 2+ min. Exit quickly with the hovering if profit target did not fill with a few ticks. Then it developed into a long trend stepping higher.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.14.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_14_2015

10/14/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 7.2K
Employment Change Actual: -5.1K
Previous Revision: +0.7K to 18.1K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 6.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7319
1st Peak @ 0.7280 – 2130:04 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 0.7295 – 2048 (18 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7275 – 2103 (33 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 0.7306 – 2123 (53 min)
31 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7329 – 2237 (67 min)
54 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7306 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7281 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7282 (just below the R1 Pivot) – move lower to just below the S2 Pivot.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.11.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_11_2015

11/11/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 14.8K
Employment Change Actual: 58.6K
Previous Revision: +4.3K to -0.8K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 5.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7050
1st Peak @ 0.7110 – 1930:40 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 0.7099 – 1931:18 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7143 – 2049 (79 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 0.7123 – 2131 (121 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7066 (long)
Slippage: 8 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7109 – 43 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7103 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Very large offset caused a large spike and subsequent 2nd peak. Perfect trade for the initial spike for about 40 ticks then another 25+ on the 2nd peak.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.9.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12_9_2015

12/9/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: -10.0K
Employment Change Actual: 71.4K
Previous Revision: -2.5K to 56.1K
Rate Forecast: 6.0%
Rate Actual: 5.8
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7240
1st Peak @ 0.7312 – 1930:54 (1 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 0.7294 – 1934 (4 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7333 – 1942 (12 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 0.7315 – 1951 (21 min)
18 ticks

Double Top @ 0.7334 – 2002 (32 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7283 – 2203 (153 min)
51 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7256 (long)
Slippage: 8 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7311 – 55 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7300 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Very large offset caused a large spike and subsequent 2nd peak. Perfect trade for the initial spike for about 50+ ticks then another 25+ on the 2nd peak.

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