6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.2.2015

 Monthly Trade Balance  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.2.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12_2_2015

12/2/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.61B
Actual: -3.31B
Previous Revision: -0.08B to -2.40B
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7295
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7282 – 1930:03 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7289 – 1930:08 (1 min)
)))7 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7281 – 1937 (7 min)
)))8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7288 – 1955 (25 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7305 – 2139 (129 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7287 (No SMA / Pivot near / 0.7280 (below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7302 (just above the HOD) / 0.7310 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7287 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7289 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7295 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Spike was just short of the outer tier by 2 ticks, then did not reverse much. This scenario is rare, but look to exit near breakeven.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.7.2015

 NAB Business Confidence  Comments Off on 6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.7.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9_7_2015

9/7/2015 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.6936
1st Peak @ 0.6944 – 2130:04 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.6931 – 2130:45 (1 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.6969 – 2143 (13 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.6932 – 2234 (64 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 0.6959 – 2249 (79 min)
27 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.6940 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.6943 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.6950 (above the HOD) – move lower to just above the 50 SMA.

Notes: Exit quickly with the hovering if profit target did not fill with a few ticks. Large 2nd peak and subsequent reversal may have been due to another spontaneous news event.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.12.2015

 NAB Business Confidence  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.12.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_12_2015

10/12/2015 NAB Business Confidence (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 5
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7313
1st Peak @ 0.7319 – 2030:51 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.7299 – 2105 (35 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Price did not move more than 1 tick until 49 sec after the release, so cancel.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.9.2015

 NAB Business Confidence  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.9.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_9_2015

11/9/2015 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.7033
1st Peak @ 0.7029 – 1930:00 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.7035 – 1930:38 (1 min)
6 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7029 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7031 – 2 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7023 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Quick spike that reversed immediately. Move the stop closer to exit with a 2-4 tick loss.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.7.2015

 NAB Business Confidence  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.7.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12_7_2015

12/7/2015 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 5
Previous Revision: +1 to 3
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7262
1st Peak @ 0.7265 – 1930:48 (1 min)
3 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel after 10 sec with no impulse above 4 ticks.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.22.2014

 Quarterly CPI  Comments Off on 6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.22.2014
May 072014
 

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4_22_20146A 06-14 (1 Range) 4_22_2014

4/22/2014 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.6%
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9342
1st Peak@ 0.9281 – 2130:04 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 0.9310 – 2130:16 (1 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9263 – 2155 (25 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 0.9280 – 2233 (63 min)
19 ticks

Notes: This report was moderately negative, falling short of the forecast on both parts of the report by 0.2%. This resulted in a quick large short spike that fell for 61 ticks in only 4 sec, crossing the major SMAs near the origin, and nearly reaching the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 29 ticks 14 sec later to the S2 Pivot. With JOBB and the recommended limit order, you would not have filled on the short move as the 7 tick bracket with 10 limit setting was slipped, then the retracement missed the order by 5 ticks. Still, it would have been prudent to manually short it around 0.9307 when it reversed, then look to get about 20 ticks just below the S3 Pivot as it kept falling for a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks in 25 min as it crossed the S4 Pivot. Then it reversed for 19 ticks in the next 38 min , crossing the 50 SMA and reaching the S4 Mid Pivot.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.1.2015

 Quarterly GDP  Comments Off on 6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.1.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9_1_2015 6A 09-15 (Second) 9_1_2015

9/1/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7024
1st Peak@ 0.6981 – 2130:02 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.7014 – 2130:52 (1 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.6977 – 2141 (11 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 0.7022 – 2159 (29 min)
45 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7004 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.6982 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.6983 (below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Exit quickly with the hovering if profit target did not fill. Beautiful reversal trade after the 2141 bar tested the S2 Pivot and gave a bullish hammer.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.1.2015

 Quarterly GDP  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.1.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12_1_2015

12/1/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7320
1st Peak@ 0.7340 – 1930:03 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7307 – 1955 (25 min)
33 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7337 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7339 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7362 (above the R2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Exit quickly with a few ticks after it showed reluctance to go above 20 ticks. Very strong reversal.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.27.2015

 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure  Comments Off on 6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.27.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8_27_2015

8/26/2015 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.5%
Actual: -4.0%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -4.7%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7120
1st Peak@ 0.7106 – 2130:08 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.7147 – 2141 (11 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 0.7115 – 2321 (51 min)
32 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7114 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7107 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7095 (below the PP Pivot) – move up to below the LOD

Notes: Small spike fell and hovered for 12 sec near the LOD before reversing strongly. Move the profit target up or move the stop loss down to a few ticks beyond Breakeven to handle the exit.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.25.2015

 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.25.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_25_2015

11/25/2015 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.8%
Actual: -9.2%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -4.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7254
1st Peak@ 0.7222 – 1931:00 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.7237 – 1933 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7211 – 1946 (16 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.7222 – 2000 (30 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7249 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.7223 – 26 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7225 (below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Large offset caused a good spike. Great 2nd peak opportunity to short it above the S1 Pivot and cover below the S2 Mid Pivot.

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