6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.17.2015

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.17.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8_18_2015

8/17/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 0.7355
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7366 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7352 – 2131:15 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7376 – 2153 (23 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.7364 – 2305 (95 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7348 (just above the S1 Pivot / 0.7340 just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7364 (just above the PP Pivot / 0.7372 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7364 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7353 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7355 – in between the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD

Notes: Good inner tier reaction. Also made for a good 2nd peak trade to buy near the LOD.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 9.14.2015

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 9.14.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 9_14_2015

9/14/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Pt @ 0.7114 – shift up 2 ticks to 0.7116
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7096 – 2131:08 (2 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7107 – 2131:54 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7089 – 2138 (8 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.7101 – 2147 (17 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7109 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / 0.7100 – just below the PP Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7123 (just above the R1 Pivot / 0.7131 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Slow and delayed reaction that did not really launch until over 1 min after the release. Cancel the order.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.19.2015

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.19.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_19_2015

10/19/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 0.7240 – shift down 3 ticks to 0.7237
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7257 – 2030:40 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7247 – 2030:52 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7255 – 2031:15 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7242 – 2039 (17 min)
13 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7230 – 2210 (100 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7229 (just below the OOD / 0.7221 – on the LOD)
Short entry – 0.7245 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot / 0.7252 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7245 and 0.7252 – both short tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.7247 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7238 (just below the PP Pivot) – move higher after observation

Notes: Large long spike did not follow the Cash rate reaction. Look to exit with a handful of ticks on the initial reversal. Also the long term reversal would have shown promise after lower highs developed.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.16.2015

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.16.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_16_2015

11/16/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 0.7087
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7080 – 1930:27 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7098 – 1937:32 (8 min)
)))18 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.7077 – 2011 (41 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.7091 – 2059 (89 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7080 or 0.7079 (on the PP Pivot / 0.7071 – on the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7094 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot / 0.7102 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7080 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7097 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7093 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Very slow reaction, but would have delivered with patience. Inner long entry would have filled if 0.7080 or higher. Nice pullback following the reversal too.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 12.14.2015

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 12.14.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 12_14_2015

12/14/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Pt @ 0.7207
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7213 – 1930:30 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7227 – 1938 (8 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7211 – 1953 (23 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7200 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.7191 – in between the S1 / S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.7215 (just above the OOD / 100 SMA) / 0.7223 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small reaction due to December season. Cancel with the slow gradual approach and failure to exceed 6 ticks after 1:10.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.5.2015

 RBA Monetary Policy  Comments Off on 6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.5.2015
Jan 082016
 

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_5_2015

11/5/2015 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7142
1st Peak @ 0.7136 – 1930:19 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.7143 – 1933 (3 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7125 – 1941 (11 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.7135 – 1955 (25 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.7124 – 2020 (50 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7139 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7136 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7130 (below the 200 SMA / LOD)

Notes: Small 1st peak followed by a large 2nd peak. This is common with this report.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.2.2014

 Building Approvals  Comments Off on 6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.2.2014
Jan 042015
 

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7_2_2014

7/2/2014 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 9.9%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -5.6%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9344
1st Peak @ 0.9323 – 2130:04 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.9341 – 2139 (9 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 0.9327 – 2145 (15 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.9347 – 2151 (21 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in strong with 6.8% deviation, with a small downward previous revision. This caused a 21 tick short spike in 4 sec that started on the S4 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S4 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.9336 with 5 ticks of slippage, then continued to fall and chop around the LOD. Since this was in the aftermath of a large short move resulting from the RBA Gov Stevens announcement, be careful and exit more quickly when profit is apparent. An exit at 0.9325 would have been safe and prudent for 11 ticks where it hovered for 8 sec. After that it reversed 18 ticks in 8 min, crossing the S4 Pivot and 20 SMA. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in 6 min before reversing 20 ticks as it crossed the 50 SMA and reached the S4 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.7.2016

 Monthly Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.7.2016
Jan 142016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1_7_2016

1/7/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.6996 – shift up 5 ticks to 0.7001
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.6992 – 1930:02 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7002 – 1930:52 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7319 – 2021 (51 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.6991 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.6980 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7012 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.7020 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching report caused a nice whipsaw that was a couple of ticks short of the inner long tier. Cancel the order.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.13.2016

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.13.2016
Jan 192016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1_13_2016

1/13/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: -11.0K
Employment Change Actual: -1.0K
Previous Revision: +3.5K to 74.9K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.6914
1st Peak @ 0.6938 – 1930:06 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.6900 – 1936 (6 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 0.6922 – 1953 (23 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.6903 – 2003 (33 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.6925 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.6937 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.6956 (just below the PP Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Relatively small offset for a bullish result caused a small and choppy 24 tick spike. As it briefly hovered on the S1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA / OOD with the HOD looming above, exit. Strong reversal presented a buy opportunity for a pullback.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.3.2014

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.3.2014
Feb 232014
 

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2_3_2014

6A 03-14 (1 Range) 2_3_2014

2/3/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Started @ 0.8736 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8760 – 2229:59 (0 min)
)))24 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8748 – 2230:01 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8770 – 2230:03 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8748 – 2230:28 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8804 – 2233 (3 min)
68 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8870 – 2335 (65 min)
134 ticks

Reversal to 0.8848 – 2344 (74 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8724 (below the OOD and on the 200 SMA) / 0.8714 (no SMA/Pivot within 5 ticks)
Short entries – 0.8747 (just above the HOD) / 0.8759 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected, however the RBA signaled that interest rate cuts are at an end while omitting mention of an “uncomfortably high” exchange rate that was in the previous 2 statements. This caused a very large and decisive bullish move that unfortunately was not a good setup for the Trap Trade. The initial burst long would have filled both tiers of the short orders, then seen another 11 ticks of heat. It backed off to yield only 5 ticks of profit from the average position 28 sec into the :31 bar. With this report it would be prudent to move the stop loss tighter with the strong bullish reaction and exit near break even before it continued higher. If not, you would have been stopped out for a 15 tick loss. The final peak achieved a total of 134 ticks in the next hour in a dramatic upward fan that crossed the R2 Pivot, then it reversed for 22 ticks in the next 9 min back to the R2 Pivot.

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