Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.18.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Nov 302013

11/18/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9349
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9336 – 1930:11 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9348 – 1930:48 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9336 – 1931:20 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9366 – 1938 (8 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.9354 – 1950 (20 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 13 ticks 11 sec into the :31 bar, then reversed back to the origin after 48 sec before a pullback to double bottom 20 sec into the :32 bar. The drop nearly reached the S1 Pivot. 10 ticks was the recommended offset. So with an anchor point of about 0.9349 as the centerline of trading in the last 30 min, the HOD at 0.9358 is a good point for the short entry, and with no indicator near 7-10 on the short side, just go with 9-10 ticks at 0.9340 for the long entry. The long entry would have filled with 4 ticks of space, then backed off to give 8 ticks of profit for easy capture. It fell again, but then reversed to give 20+ ticks profit on a patient exit near the HOD. Then it pulled back to the 100/200 SMAs for 12 ticks. After that it rallied to step higher near the PP Pivot.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.9.2013

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Nov 062013

10/9/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 15.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 9.1K
Previous Revision: +0.6K to -10.2K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9409
1st Peak @ 0.9375 – 2031 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.9434 – 2031 (1 min)
-59 ticks

Pullback to 0.9385 – 2113 (43 min)
49 ticks

Extended Pullback to 0.9352 – 2304 (154 min)
82 ticks

Notes: Mixed report fell moderately short of the forecast on jobs created by 6K while the unemployment rate improved by 0.2%. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that spiked short first on the lackluster jobs, then rebounded long on the rate improvement. It started sitting on all 3 major SMAs in a tight fist near the origin and fell to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then after 3 sec, it reversed long for 59 ticks to reach the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9388 with about 5 ticks of slippage. After chopping with 15 tick swings around your fill point, it would have filled your stop loss at about 0.9406 with 3 ticks of slippage for an 18 tick loss. After several solid reports through the summer, we got a bad apple, but it had cause for misbehavior. After the :31 bar, it sustained the long spike, then slowly pulled back for 49 ticks in 43 min, then another 33 ticks in the next 2 hours.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9.30.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 222013

9/30/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9272
1st Peak @ 0.9289 – 2131 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9279 – 2148 (18 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, with no previous report revision. This caused a safe and decisive long spike for 17 ticks. This is a welcome result after 3 straight indecisive reports. The peak crossed the PP Pivot and the HOD at 0.9287 and held its gain. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9279 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 0.9287 with 8 ticks. After the :31 bar, it traded sideways just under the PP Pivot for about 12 min before falling 10 ticks back to the OOD. After that it traded sideways between the OOD and HOD for hours.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.14.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 212013

10/14/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9472
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9468 – 2030:13 (1 min)
-4 ticks

Reversal to 0.9483 – 2030:37 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.9471 – 2031:38 (2 min)
-12 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9496 – 2117 (47 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.9483 – 2143 (73 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a slow developing reaction that fell 4 ticks then rebounded 15 ticks 37 sec into the :31 bar. The initial drop may have been noise, but the low session volume and knowledge of news makes that unlikely. The drop eclipsed the 50 SMA as support, then rose to hit the R2 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. 7-10 ticks was the recommended offset. So with an anchor point of about 0.9472 as the centerline of trading in the last 45 min, a point in between the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD at about 0.9481 is a good point for the short entry, and the R1 Mid Pivot at 0.9463 is a good area of support for the long entry. You may have cancelled the order with no fill after 30 sec, and that would have been conservative. If not the short entry would have filled and then backed off into profit within a few seconds. The 50 SMA or R1 Pivot at about 0.9473 would have been a good target for 8 ticks on the :32 bar. After the initial volatility, it achieved a double top at the R2 Mid Pivot. before falling to a double bottom 5 min later. Then it trended higher stepping up to 0.9496 about 45 min after the report, eclipsing the R2 Pivot. Then it backed off to the R2 Mid Pivot and traded sideways.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9.16.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 212013

9/16/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9254
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9245 – 2130:05 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.9271 – 2130:30 (1 min)
-36 ticks

Pullback to 0.9263 – 2130:34 (1 min)
8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9280 – 2133 (3 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.9231 – 2154 (24 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a quick short unsustainable spike for 9 ticks that quickly retraced and headed long with considerable movement internal to the :31 bar. Though at first glance it appears to be a decisive long spike, it would have been a good setup for the trap trade. We recommended a Trap Trade with 7-10 tick offset and 10 tick stop on this report after the Cash Rate was initially indecisive. So with an anchor point of 0.9254 on the 50 SMA, the 200 SMA / OOD at 0.9262 is a good point for the short entry, but there is no good area of support on the bottom. In this case, anything 7-10 ticks should work. Anything less that 10 ticks would have filled for a long entry, then given much profit when it turned around long. If you did not fill on the initial short move, you could have cancelled or gotten filled on the short entry on top. If filled, it would have hovered around the fill point for several seconds without giving much profit. Close the order near break even before it hits the stop loss in this case. After the :31 bar, it continued long to hit the PP Pivot on the :33 bar, then reversed dramatically in the next 20 min for 49 ticks.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 8.19.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 212013

8/19/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9082
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9095 – 2130:07 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9084 – 2130:12 (1 min)
-11 ticks

Pullback to 0.9103 – 2132:00 (2 min)
21 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9090 – 2136 (6 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9105 – 2141 (11 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.9058 – 2203 (33 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a long spike with considerable movement internal to the :31 bar. Though at first glance it appears to be a decisive long spike, it would have been a good setup for the trap trade. We recommended a Trap Trade with 7-10 tick offset and 10 tick stop on this report after the Cash Rate was initially indecisive. So with an anchor point of 0.9082 on the S1 Pivot, go with the 0.9070 for the long entry on the S2 Mid Pivot and 0.9094 for the short entry on the 100 SMA. These are more than 10 ticks, but the first clear area of support / resistance. The short entry would have filled on the initial burst, then given you up to about 10 ticks to capture on 2 occasions until 7 sec remained in the :31 bar. Move the stop loss down to breakeven if you are looking to carry the trade beyond the :31 bar to stay safe. After the trap trade scenario and volatility faded, it reversed back to the just above the 50 SMA for 13 ticks on the :36 bar. Then it rallied for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks, before reversing dramatically for 47 ticks in about 20 min.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.1.2013

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Oct 162013

Caption for 10/1:
10/1/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (UPWARD FAN)
Started @ 0.9292
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.9312 – 0030:31 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.9302 – 0030:52 (1 min)
-10 ticks

Pullback to 0.9321 – 0031:20 (2 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9359 – 0121 (51 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 0.9345 – 0123 (53 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected 2 months after an expected cut of 25 BP and 1 month after the election of a new conservative PM. This caused a bullish reaction overall, resulting in an upward fan over nearly an hour. Not the ideal setup for a Trap Trade, but it would still offer a few ticks if played correctly. A trap bracket of 15-25 ticks would use the R2 Mid Pivot at 0.9309 as the short entry and the S1 Mid Pivot at 0.9276 as the long entry. The reaction started late, about 13 sec into the :31 bar, then the short entry would have filled. After hovering near the fill point for several seconds, it would have fallen to give you a handful of ticks about 40-50 sec into the bar. Without a hasty drop and the volatile swings, look to exit there and move your stop loss to break even just in case. After the :31 bar, it developed into an upward fan, achieving 67 ticks in 51 min, eclipsing the R3 Pivot on its final push. It backed off quickly, giving back 14 ticks in 2 min. Then it traded sideways as volume dried up.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 9.11.2013

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Oct 082013

9/11/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -10.8K
Previous Revision: -1.2K to -11.4K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9342
1st Peak @ 0.9282 – 2133 (3 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 0.9293 – 2136 (6 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9256 – 2213 (43 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 0.9267 – 2224 (54 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created by 21K while the unemployment rate remain unchanged, with a small downward revision to the previous report caused a short choppy but eventually sustainable spike of 60 ticks that did not abate the drop until the :33 bar. It crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and fell to eclipse the R1 Pivot and extend the LOD. As it is becoming common with this report, it was choppy for the first 7 or so sec between 0.9337 and 0.9297, then settled down and fell further in a calm manner. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9332 with only 2-3 ticks of slippage. A quick exit with a profit target would have netted up to 20 or so ticks. If you stayed in and waited patiently, 40 or more ticks could have been captured on the :32 or :33 bar. This is where knowing the results can sway your decision to stay in. Compared to August, this report was much more solidly negative and sustained the drop after the initial choppy period. After the 1st peak, it reversed for a meager 11 ticks in 3 min to the S1 Pivot, then fell for a 2nd peak of 26 more ticks in the next 37 min as it almost reached the S2 Pivot. Then it could only reverse for 11 ticks as volume dried up and it traded sideways.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 8.7.2013

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Oct 082013

8/7/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 6.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -10.2K
Previous Revision: -1.0K to 9.3K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8997
1st Peak @ 0.8948 – 2131 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 0.8998 – 2246 (76 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Bipolar report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created offset by the unemployment rate falling by 0.1%, with a small downward revision to the previous report caused a choppy and unsustainable spike of 49 ticks. It crossed the 200 SMA and PP Pivot, then extended the LOD. After chopping between 0.8995 and 0.8948 for the early part of the :31 bar, it eventually rallied up to 0.9000 then settled at 0.8982 as the bar expired, leaving more than 30 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.8975 with 12-14 ticks of slippage. Depending upon your settings, you could have taken up to 25 ticks of profit or lost 15 on a stop loss. Most of us had a breakeven fill for a negligible loss or eked out 10 or less ticks of profit with a conservative target. This is a case where a conservative approach would serve you well on a riskier report. After the :31 bar, it bobbed lower, but could not approach the PP Pivot again, then it began a long slow reversal that saw resistance at the OOD, then the 200/100 SMAs, reclaiming 50 ticks in about an hour, but the bulk of it was retraced on the :31 bar.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 8.6.2013

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Sep 302013

8/6/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.8902
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.8883 – 0029:59 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.8936 – 0030:11 (1 min)
-53 ticks

Pullback to 0.8907 – 0030:45 (1 min)
29 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8948 – 0033 (3 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 0.8924 – 0038 (8 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Australia’s central bank cut rates by 25 BP as expected after one of the RBA governors had spilled the beans about a week earlier. Since this was expected, the market had sold off for several says, pricing in the move, making it still safe for a Trap Trade. Using an anchor point of about 0.8902 as the average price action from the last several min and the 200 SMA position, this caused an initial short move of 19 ticks, followed by a quick reversal of 53 ticks in the next 12 sec. Using a 20-25 tick buffer, the short move would have barely missed our long entry at the PP Pivot and LOD, but the long move would have filled a short order at about 0.8927 just above the R2 Pivot, then given opportunity to capture up to 20 ticks as it fell to 0.8907 on the :31 bar. Be careful holding on to the short order for too long as the reaction was priced in and the market rallied after the RBA acted as expected. In the aftermath of the first 2 minutes, it would be safe to buy the dips as it kept inching higher for the next 2 hrs and was reluctant to fall.

Older Entries Newer Entries