6A 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

 RBA Monetary Policy  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12
May 032012
 


6A 036 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

5/3/2011 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0214
1st Peak @ 1.0208 – 1531 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reverse to 1.0234 – 1547 (17 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.0226 – 1559 (29 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Small moving report compared to the historical reactions over the pas t year. Dull spike of 6 ticks that likely would have filled your JOBB. If you see the double bottom at 1.0208, then a change in direction, I would close out with a 3-5 tick loss just in case it might come down again. When it strongly penetrated the 200 SMA upward with no effects of resistance, it is obviously going long for a while with more magnitude, so a follow on long entry would be safe with an exit at the double top of 1.0232.

6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.30.12

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.30.12
Apr 302012
 


6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.30.12

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.30.12

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.30.12
Apr 302012
 


6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.30.12

4/30/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.00%
Actual: 3.75%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (INDECISIVE initially)
Started @ 1.0375
1st Candle: Peak @ 1.0306 / Retrace to 1.0389 / Peak @ 1.0274 / Settle @ 1.0307 – 1831 (1 min)
-69 ticks / 14 ticks / – 101 ticks / -68 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0268 – 1921 (51 min)
107 ticks

Reverse to 1.0290 – 2000 (90 min)
22 ticks

Notes: With the disappointing PPI and CPI #s from the previous week, most investors were anticipating a 25 BP rate cut (or small chance of no change). Instead the RBA surprised everyone and cut rates by 50 BP. Since the market had priced in a 25 BP rate cut in the hours prior to the report, it spiked long prematurely due to short covering. Then the 50 BP cut caused immediate volatility and an eventually dove to the downside for 101 ticks. Unfortunately with JOBB, the oscillations in the early seconds would have stopped you out. The up spike crossed many Pivots to peak just above the R2 Pivot, and the downspike crossed all major SMAs near the origin, penetrated the S3 Pivot to bottom out well below it. After the bottom of 1.0274 was hit, it retraced back to about 1.0317 at the S2 Pivot, then headed down to a 2nd Peak at 1.0268 50 minutes later. The reversal was relatively small at 22 ticks in nearly 40 minutes after the 2nd peak.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.16.12

 RBA Monetary Policy  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.16.12
Apr 162012
 


6A 036 12 (1 Min) 04.16.12

4/16/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0273
1st Peak @ 1.0257 – 1531 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reverse to 1.0285 – 1545 (15 min)
28 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Relatively small spike with long tail on the :31 candle. This report typically yields more ticks and the spike only had to contend with the S1 Pivot, but the sharp reversal is a good indication that it will not gear up for another short dive. I would close out with a handful of ticks profit. The stagnant activity on the :32-:34 candles indicates an effort to go short again after the retracement, but after 3 minutes, the bulls overtook the action to jump start the reversal. It eventually fought through the S1 Pivot, then all three major SMAs before arresting just above the 200 SMA with a double top.

6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.11.12

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.11.12
Apr 112012
 


6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.11.12

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.11.12

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.11.12
Apr 112012
 


6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.11.12

4/11/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 6.4K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 44.0K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual:5.2%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0231
1st Peak @ 1.0300 – 1531 (1 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 1.0271 – 1553 (23 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Very Strong positive report that exceeded the forecast with no revision to the previous report causing a large spike upward. The 1531 candle went up about nearly 70 ticks crossing all three SMAs near the origin and the R1 / R2 Pivots roughly 1/3 and 2/3 up the path. The peak was achieved about 13 sec into the :31 candle, then it retreated to hover in between 1.0290 and 1.0278 then fell 50 before rebounding and continuing upward. Since it only stayed up at 1.0030 for about 1 sec, this would have been hard to get, but still good for at least 1.0285 on the close. The reversal yielded 29 ticks to just brush the R2 Pivot 23 min after the spike.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.03.12

 Monthly Trade Balance  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.03.12
Apr 032012
 


6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.03.12

4/3/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: 1.12B
Actual:-0.48B
Previous Revision:-0.30B to -0.97B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0226
1st Peak @ 1.0195 – 1534 (4 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0187 – 1542 (12 min)
39 ticks (3x bottom)

Reversal to 1.0198 – 1551 (38 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, with a strongly negative revision to the previous report. This caused a decent spike downward of 31 ticks with a small pullback, then a 2nd peak of 39 ticks 8 minutes later. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0210 with slippage. You could get out safely after hovering at 1.0203, but this report is prone to peaking after the :01 candle and yielding a 2nd peak. If you stayed in, the triple bottom at the 2nd peak is a good indication that the trend is about to reverse along with the inability to penetrate the S1 line support, so exit there. The reversal was small and the volume noticeably dropped after :46.

6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.02.12

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.02.12
Apr 022012
 


6A 06 12 (2 Range) 04.02.12

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.02.12

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.02.12
Apr 022012
 


6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.02.12

4/2/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.25%
Actual: 4.25%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0355
1st Peak @ 1.0380 – 1831 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reverse to 1.0321 – 1835 (5 min)
59 ticks

Reverse to 1.0308 – 1841 (11 min)
72 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Traders initially bought as there was a small chance the RBA would cut interest rates. Then the comments of moderate to slow growth caused the negative bias and selling. This caused a 25 tick spike, followed by a large reversal of more than 70 ticks 10 min later. If using JOBB, you would have gotten in long at about 1.0365. After the spike, the market hovered for 11 sec between 1.0371 and 1.0380 as it hit resistance at the R1 line. Close out here as it reversed significantly after that. The spike and the reversal did not have any problems cutting through the major SMAs as it was trading in a narrow FIST before the report, but broke through long and short with ease.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.02.12

 Monthly Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.02.12
Apr 022012
 


6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.02.12

4/2/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0340
1st Peak @ 1.0348 – 1531 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0335 – 1542 (12 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, with no previous report revision. This caused a small spike followed by a small, but larger reversal. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at 1.0345 with no slippage as it rose slowly. Since it crossed the 100 SMA and peaked at the 50 SMA then hovered, this is a good place to exit with 2-3 ticks of profit. The reversal briefly dropped below the 200 SMA before retreating long.

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