6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.17.11

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.17.11
Oct 172011
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.17.11

10/17/2011 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0022
1st Peak @ 1.0004 – 1432 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 1.0022 – 1436 (6 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Smaller than normal 2 candle spike of 18 ticks as normally you can look for 20-25 ticks on the spike. When it hit the 50 SMA, it bottomed out and reversed. The reversal gained the same amount of ticks as the spike. Overall meager reaction compared to what is typically seen.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 10.12.11

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (2 Range) 10.12.11
Oct 122011
 


6A 03 12 (2 Range) 10.12.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.12.11

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.12.11
Oct 122011
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.12.11

10/12/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:20.4K
Previous Revision: -0.8K to -10.5K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual:5.2%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 0.9970 (1430)
1st Peak @ 1.0054 – 1431 (1 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 1.0010 – 1436 (6 min)
44 ticks

Notes: *Report broke 5 sec early accounting for the late spike on the 1430 candle (spiked up 40 ticks, then retraced 15 to transition to the 1431 candle). Strongly positive report that exceeded the forecast with a slightly negative revision to the previous report causing a large spike upward. The 1431 candle went up about 20 ticks then fell 50 before rebounding and continuing upward. With JOBB this would have taken your stop loss due to the early move setting up your bracket trade higher.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.04.11

 Monthly Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.04.11
Oct 042011
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.04.11

10/4/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 2030 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.6%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 0.9329
1st Peak @ 0.9359 – 1431 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.9306 – 1451 (21 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a moderate spike that crossed the 50 SMA and briefly eclipsed the 100 SMA before retreating. After observing the spike barely eclipse the 100 SMA, close out, especially with the 200 SMA looming above. As a downward FAN commenced about 30 min before the report, the positive spike was an overreaching gap close that quickly reversed. Reversal continued with the grain of the FAN yielding 53 ticks from the peak in only 20 minutes.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 10.03.11

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (2 Range) 10.03.11
Oct 032011
 


6A 03 12 (2 Range) 10.03.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11
Oct 032011
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

10/3/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2330 EDT)
Forecast: 4.75%
Actual: 4.75%
DULL REACTION (with delayed spike)
Started @ 0.9320
1st Candle: Peak @ 0.9335 – 1731 (1 min)
15 ticks

After
2nd Peak @ 0.9269 – 1738 (8 min)
51 ticks

Reverse to 0.9301 – 1747 (17 min)
32 ticks (2x top)

Notes: The RBA left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a tenth straight meeting, citing conditions in global financial markets have continued to be very unsettled, with uncertainty increasing about both the prospects for resolution of the sovereign debt and banking problems in Europe, and the outlook for global economic growth, matching predictions. This caused an initial dull reaction as illustrated by the range chart with very few candles in the span of the first 4 minutes. With JOBB you would be filled long 6 sec into the 1731 candle. After posting about 8 ticks of profit, it hovered and then retraced on the following candle. I would close out on the hovering and due to the lack of volume as this is abnormal. Keeping an eye for a later opportunity to get in, I would get in short at about 0.9308 on the 1735 candle and close out after it bounced off of the S2 line with a long tail at 1738.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

 Monthly Trade Balance  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11
Oct 032011
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

10/3/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.14B
Actual:3.10B
Previous Revision: -0.01B to 1.82B
Spike / REtrace
Started @ 0.9318
1st Peak @ 0.9333 – 1431 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9288 – 1550 (20 min)
45 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast, with a negligible previous report revision. Report broke at the same time as Monthly BLDG Approval which had a positive result, but does not influence the market much. I would not trade this report with the BLDG Approval release at the same time, and the tail on the 1431 candle serves as a warning. I would keep an eye on it though once the report results are known to possibly play the reversal. In this case the double top at 0.9333, the crossing of the 50 and 100 SMAs by the 1431 candle, the downslope of the large SMAs, and the 200 SMA above make a great entry point for a short. As it fell 45 ticks in the next few min, I would get out after the big red candle at 1439 at about 0.9294.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.19.11

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.19.11
Sep 192011
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.19.11

9/19/2011 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9983
1st Peak @ 1.0029 – 1533 (3 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0034 – 1538 (8 min)
51 ticks

Reverse to 0.9990 – 1603 (33 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Larger spike than normal. I normally look for 20-25 ticks on these trades, but the 1531 candle did not retreat much from its peak. This makes it worth waiting for to see what the follow on candles do. As it only retreated 2 ticks, I would wait for more. Seeing the 1533 candle, I would get out around 100.28. After a small retracement, the 2nd peak of 5 more ticks came at 1538, 5 min later. As the spike was larger than normal, the reversal took longer to develop, but eventually fell from 1551 to 1603. It continued to fall for another 30 min, but not likely due to the influence of this report.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 09.07.11

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (2 Range) 09.07.11
Sep 072011
 


6A 03 12 (2 Range) 09.07.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.07.11

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.07.11
Sep 072011
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.07.11

9/7/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.7K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:-9.7K
Previous Revision:-4K to -4.1K
Rate Forecast: 5.1%
Rate Actual:5.3%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0410
1st Peak @ 1.0351 – 1531 (1 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 1.0377 – 1536 (6 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast with a negative revision to the previous report causing a large spike downward. The market shot down 25 ticks in the first second, then retraced 30, repeated the seesaw, and after 2 sec, fell another 30 ticks and then hovered at the low point of 59 ticks for 14 sec. Close out there as it retraced up 20 ticks after that. Due to such a negative report, the reversal was not even half the magnitude of the spike, and it eventually settled down near the bottom of the spike.

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