Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.11.2013

Apr 062014

11/11/2013 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 5
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9347
1st Peak @ 0.9320 – 1934 (4 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9315 – 1949 (19 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.9331 – 2001 (31 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9304 – 2131 (121 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9312 – 2146 (136 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in much less than the previous month to cause a short move of 27 ticks over the :31 – :34 bars that started on the HOD and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and eclipse the S1 Pivot while extending the LOD. Once again the move was slow and tame resulting in a fill with low slippage. The S1 Mid Pivot would have been a safe and conservative exit for about 10-12 ticks. After the peak, it struggled with the S1 Pivot for about 15 min, then reversed for 16 ticks back to the 50 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot. Then it proceeded to take slow and progressive steps lower in a downward fan that used the 50 SMA as resistance and eventually crossed the S2 Mid Pivot about 2 hrs after the report. Then it reversed for 8 ticks in 15 min.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.9.2013

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

12/9/2013 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 5
Previous Revision: +1 to 6
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9081
1st Peak @ 0.9091 – 1933 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.9080 – 1954 (24 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report came in at the same as last month with a small upward previous revision. This caused a nearly dull reaction that yielded 10 ticks in 3 bars as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot, 50/100 SMAs, and nearly reached the HOD. The push on the :33 bar was too much to sustain, so it ceded the gain late on the bar, then eked out another few ticks in the next 20 min. Minimal action overall as the report was probably matching expectations and it is heading into the Holidays.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 1.27.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

1/27/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 6
Previous Revision: +1 to 6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8711
1st Peak @ 0.8735 – 1932 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.8727 – 1933 (3 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8741 – 1947 (17 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.8725 – 2017 (47 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt higher than last month with a small upward previous revision. This caused a 24 tick long spike that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and 13/20 SMAs and crossed the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot while extending the HOD. Once again the move was slow and tame resulting in a fill with low slippage and peaking in the middle of the :32 bar . The R1 Pivot would have been a safe exit for about 18-20 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 8 ticks, then achieved a Final peak of 6 more ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 30 min back to the R1 Mid Pivot, then it traded sideways.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.10.2013

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

2/10/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 8
Previous Revision:n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8932
1st Peak @ 0.8955 – 1933 (3 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.8940 – 1938 (8 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8996 – 2006 (36 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 0.8981 – 2011 (41 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in 2 pts higher than last month with no previous revision. This caused a 23 tick long spike that started on the 20 SMA / R1 Pivot and crossed the R3 Mid Pivot while extending the HOD over 3 bars. Once again the move was slow and tame resulting in a fill with low slippage and peaking just after the :33 bar started. The R3 Mid Pivot would have been a safe exit for about 13-15 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 15 ticks back to the R2 Pivot and 13 SMA in 5 min. Then it rebounded to climb for a large 2nd peak of 41 more ticks in the next 28 min, riding the 13 SMA while experiencing a few min of resistance at each Pivot. It would be a safe proposition to buy the reversal after the initial peak, and hold onto it until the 13 crosses the 20 SMA and the MACD crosses. This would have secured over 40 ticks above the R4 Pivot.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.10.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

3/10/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 7
Previous Revision: +1 to 9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9035
1st Peak @ 0.9012 – 2032 (2 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9006 – 2053 (23 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.9026 – 2119 (49 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9035 – 2224 (114 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt lower than last month with an upward previous revision. This caused a 23 tick short spike that started on the HOD and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the PP Pivot, and OOD. The spike was still tame but moved faster than the last few reactions resulting in a fill with low slippage and peaking about halfway through the :32 bar. With the :31 bar hitting the LOD and the PP Pivot / 200 SMA a little above, look to exit just a tick or 2 lower than the LOD on the :32 bar. After the peak, it reversed for only 7 ticks, before continuing to fall for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot 20 min later. Due to the upward revision, we did not get a large lasting 2nd peak, but a small one and a larger reversal that recovered 20 ticks in 26 min, and another 9 ticks back to the origin in the next hour.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 3.17.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Apr 112014

3/17/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9038 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9028 – 2030:24 (1 min)
-10 ticks

Reversal to 0.9055 – 2031:18 (2 min)
27 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.9046 – 2033 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.9053 – 2035 (5 min)
7 ticks

Pullback to 0.9029 – 2041 (11 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9029 (just below the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.9023 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9048 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.9054 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 10 ticks 24 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the 100/200 SMAs, then reversed back 27 ticks in the next min to eclipse the R2 Pivot. Due to the Cash Rate from 2 weeks ago causing an indecisive reaction that fell short followed by a long reaction, we advised holding onto a long entry for a while to expect it to carry into a large move. Your inner long entry would have filled, with only a tick excess. Then it would have reversed allowing around 20-25 or so ticks to be captured easily on the :32 bar above the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it chopped a but in the next 3 bars before falling about 24 ticks to cross the 100/200 SMAs again. The overall reaction matched the framework of the Cash Rate as usual.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 3.31.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Apr 222014

3/31/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2330 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor point @ 0.9234
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9257 – 2330:21 (1 min)
)))23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9239 – 2331:07 (2 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9249 – 2331:34 (2 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9220 – 2332:42 (3 min)
)))-29 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.9230 – 2339 (9 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.9207 – 2348 (18 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 0.9221 – 2351 (21 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9221 (just above the OOD) / 0.9212 (in between the LOD and PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9246 (just above the R1 Pivot/ HOD) / 0.9256 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a long spike that was shortly sustained and then reversed strongly to make a great trap trade setup. The initial burst long for 23 ticks would have filled the both short entry tiers with 1 tick to spare, then reversed for 18 ticks in 47 sec. Since it is common to reverse beyond the origin, move the stop to the outer tier fill position and wait for it to fall to at least the SMAs and possibly R1 Mid Pivot or OOD level. After a pullback, it continued to fall on the :33 bar to the OOD allowing up to 60 total ticks to be captured from the average short position of 0.9251. After that it continued to step lower, but all follow up action is hard to predict, so do not look to place trades after the initial trap trade.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.2.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Apr 252014

4/2/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: 0.82B
Actual: 1.20B
Previous Revision: -0.04B to 1.39B
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9199 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.9180 – 2030:07 (1 min)
-19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9199 – 2030:29 (1 min)
19 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9171 – 2052 (22 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.9183 – 2057 (27 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9180 or 9176 (below the S1 Pivot or on the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9224 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report missed the forecast by 0.2% with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by 0.38B with a negligible downward previous report revision. The conflicting results provided a great setup for the Trap Trade. If you used 0.9180 or higher for your long entry, you would have been filled, then you would have seen it reverse in the next 22 sec back to the SMAs allowing up to 18 ticks to be captured. With the SMAS and PP Pivot as a strong resistance barrier, look to exit when you see it that area. As I mentioned in the chat room, the retail #s are dominant, and expect a decent size 2nd peak in this situation. It fell for another 9 ticks beyond the 1st peak after 21 min, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in the next 5 min back to the S1 Pivot and 20 SMA. The CNY Trade Balance released at 2100 to cause the short move after that.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.7.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

May 032014

4/7/2014 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9235
1st Peak @ 0.9225 – 2131 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.9238 – 2139 (9 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.9229 – 2205 (35 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts lower than last month with no previous revision. This caused a relatively small 10 tick short spike that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100 / 200 SMAs, R1 Mid Pivot, then nearly reached the OOD. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 0.9231 with no slippage. Then you would have seen it fall and hover at 0.9226 for 14 sec. Since this report normally will add more ticks to the move later in the bar and in the next minute, it would be safe to stay in, but move the stop down to about 0.9228, just above the 200 SMA /R1 Mid Pivot to lock in 3 ticks of profit. It reversed after that and would have allowed between 3-5 ticks to be captured. The reversal achieved 13 ticks in 8 min, climbing up to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then we saw a pullback of 9 ticks to the 200 SMA in the next 26 min. After that volume dried up as it traded sideways.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.9.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

May 032014

4/9/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 7.3K
Employment Change Actual: 18.1K
Previous Revision: +0.9K to 48.2K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 6.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9340
1st Peak @ 0.9392 – 2131 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 0.9381 – 2131 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9399 – 2134 (4 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 0.9384 – 2200 (30 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Impressive report showing nearly 11k more jobs created than the forecast and a significant drop in the rate. If you look at the range chart you see the violent swings after the initial spike lasted 2 sec, before it settled down and ascended to the R2 Pivot. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would have seen the initial spike blast through long with no fill as it exceeded the 12 ticks of slippage. The spike eventually hovered near the R2 Pivot for about 20 sec allowing an easy exit of about 30 ticks. It is also safe to wait for an exit in 2-4 min for about 10 more ticks. After a quick reversal of 11 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot, it climbed for a 2nd peak to 0.9399 on the :34 bar, allowing 38 ticks to be captured. Then we saw a 15 tick reversal in the next 26 min that crossed the 13/20 SMAs. It was started to rebound long again when the Chinese Trade Balance report broke to cause a large bearish move.

Older Entries Newer Entries