Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 08.01.11

Aug 012011

8/1/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.75%
Actual: 4.75%
DOWNWARD FAN (INDECISIVE initially)
Started @ 1.0695
1st Candle: Peak @ 1.0670 / Retrace to 1.0707 / Settle @ 1.0688 – 1831 (1 min)
-25 ticks / 37 ticks / – 19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0641 – 1842 (12 min)
54 ticks

3rd Peak @ 1.0626 – 1908 (38 min)
69 ticks

Reverse to 1.0646 – 1948 (78 min)
20 ticks

Notes: In spite of most expectations that the RBA would cut interest rates a quarter point, they decided to hold. This caused initial indecision, followed by a steady methodical drop. If using JOBB, you would have filled short. Keep an eye on the Range chart after the seesaw in the first 2 seconds, it fell to its peak, then retraced 4 ticks and hovered in that area for 12 sec. That is where to close before it reversed 33 ticks in 2 sec. When you see the first candle indecisive like that, it is good to watch the chart to see where the trend is going for another candle and then get in with the trend. I would go in short at about 1.0677 and stay in until 1846 when it appeared to hit bottom after 4 candles went sideways.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 07.26.11

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jul 262011

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 07.26.11

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jul 262011

7/26/2011 Quarterly CPI (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0648
1st Peak@ 1.0751 – 1534 (4 min)
103 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0772 – 1541 (11 min)
124 ticks

Reversal to 1.0735 – 1649 (79 min)
37 ticks

Notes: SET JOBB to :57 seconds to avoid the premature opposite spike. Report was positive, exceeding expectations. This caused a healthy spike, with a follow on peak at 11 min later. Spike crossed all three SMAs on the up spike, but very close to the origin. I would wait for the 2nd peak at 11 min. Notice there was no significant pullback after the 1st candle either. Reversal yielded 37 ticks, but took over an hour to achieve its max just short of the 100 SMA. 24 ticks of the reversal were achieved in 4 minutes, but the other 13 ticks took about an hour.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 05.31.11

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

May 312011

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 05.31.11

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

May 312011

5/31/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.0%
Actual: -1.2%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0314
1st Peak@ 1.0354 – 1533 (3 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0368 – 1542 (12 min)
54 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0374 – 1602 (32 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 1.0363 – 1621 (51 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report was negative, with a small previous upward revision. This caused a healthy spike, with 2 follow on peaks and a minimal reversal on the tail end. If using JOBB, you would have gotten in long in the first 6 sec, then the retracement would not hit your stop loss before it continued to rise again.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 05.05.11

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

May 052011

5/5/2011 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0253
1st Peak @ 1.0276 – 1532 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0326 – 1604 (34 min)
73 ticks

Reverse to 1.0301 – 1613 (43 min)
25 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Upward FAN already in progress prior to report release. With the FAN and the initial spike going with the grain but not excessively, I would stay in and watch it progress. Notice no candle crossed the 13, and very few had tails that touched it. I would have stayed in until 1611 when the market crossed the 20.

6A 06 11 (2 Range) 04.26.11

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Apr 262011

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 04.26.11

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Apr 262011

4/26/2011 Quarterly CPI (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2%
Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0389
1st Peak@ 1.0441 – 1535 (5 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 1.0408 – 1610 (88 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report was positive, exceeding expectations. This caused a healthy spike, peaking on the 1535 candle, with a follow on peak 6 min later. All three SMAs were crossed on the up spike, but near the origin. The peak of the 1531 candle hit 6 seconds into the spike, then it hovered within 8 ticks of the peak for the rest of the candle. Still wait for the peak around 5-6 min and a follow on at about 11 min with this report. Reversal yielded 33 ticks in about 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA, but unable to reach the 100 SMA.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 01.24.11

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jan 242011

1/24/2011 Quarterly CPI (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9451
1st Peak@ 0.9415 – 1431 (1 min)
36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9406 – 1436 (6 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.9438 – 1558 (88 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report was negative, falling short of expectations. This caused a healthy spike, with a follow on peak 6 min later. Since no SMAs were crossed on the down spike, I would wait for the 2nd peak. Stay in until the 2nd peak on this report. Reversal yielded 32 ticks, but took over an hour to achieve its max just short of the 200 SMA.

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