Quarterly GDP | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9.3.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Nov 302013

9/3/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.5%
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9043
1st Peak@ 0.9075 – 2131 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.9066 – 2132 (2 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9098 – 2244 (74 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.9088 – 2305 (95 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast with a 0.1% previous downward revision. This caused a choppy long reaction that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot, then eventually turned into an Upward Fan. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9051 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak quickly then hover between 0.9062 and 0.9074 for the rest of the :31 bar. A target just above the R1 Pivot at .9070 would have filled for 19 ticks. After the 1st peak, it backed off 9 ticks, then slowly stepped higher to a final peak of 23 more ticks in the next 73 min, crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 10 ticks back to the 50 SMA in about 20 min.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 6.4.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jun 092013

6/4/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9629
1st Peak@ 0.9642 – 2131 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9596 – 2132 (2 min)
-46 ticks

Pullback to 0.9646 – 2240 (70 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report fell moderately short of the forecast with no previous revision. This caused an indecisive reaction with a small initial long spike in the wrong direction for 13 ticks followed by the true short spike of 46 ticks. This is unfortunately becoming more common these days with the larger impacting reports on the 6A where we see an initial move in the wrong direction. The long move crossed the 100 / 200 SMAs and eclipsed the OOD, then the short move fell to nearly reach the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9635 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with high slippage for about a 25 tick loss. Depending on your broker, feed, and internet speed, you might have seen additional entries trigger the knife switch due to the quick reversal. After the 1st peak, it chopped sideways for about 20 min, then settled into a slow deliberate rebound that reclaimed 46 ticks in the next hour.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.5.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

May 052013

3/5/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.7%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0255
1st Peak@ 1.0268 – 1931 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0248 – 1931 (1 min)
-20 ticks

Settle @ 1.0263 – 1931 (1 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0281 – 2018 (48 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.0266 – 2045 (75 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast with a moderate upward previous revision. This caused an indecisive reaction when a large quarterly report with impact came in as expected. With the market trending upward before the report, the initial spike went long for 13 ticks, then reversed short for 20 ticks to cross the 50/100 SMAs and the R1 Pivot, then pulled back long to settle 8 ticks above the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0264 with 4 ticks of slippage. Then you would have been stopped out immediately on the reversal for a 15 tick loss. After the :31 bar settled, it achieved a slow developing final peak of 36 total ticks about 45 min later to extend the HOD and cross the R2 Pivot. Then the reversal fell 15 ticks in the next 25 min back to the 100 SMA.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.04.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Dec 042012

12/4/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: none
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0467
1st Peak@ 1.0459 – 1431 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0469 – 1435 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0456 – 1505 (35 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.0469 – 1641 (131 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly negative with no previous revision. This caused a relatively small and fleeting short spike of 8 ticks that promptly retreated back to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0462 with no slippage. In this case you would have been about 3 ticks in the red at the best possible opportunity to close out on the :31 bar, or 7 ticks at the worst. With all three major SMAs acting as support and the PP Pivot sitting at the origin, it was restrained from moving too far short, but should test it again. I elected to stay in and ride it out for the long term due to the gravity of the negative report panning out over time. I set my exit at 1.0457, just above the S1 Pivot looking to get 5 ticks. It took 35 min, but it filled and did not go any lower. The reversal then yielded 13 ticks in the next 95 min.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 09.04.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Sep 042012

9/4/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.4%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0198
1st Peak@ 1.0176 – 1531 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0199 – 1536 (6 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly negative offset with a small previous upward revision. This caused a relatively small and short lived spike of 22 ticks that left most of the tail naked then a matching reversal of 23 ticks realized 5 min later to wrap up the exposure of the report’s influence. The Initial spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs and the S1 Pivot near the origin. It was able to penetrate the S2 Pivot, but found strong support there. The :32 bar tried unsuccessfully to go short and penetrate the S2 Pivot, then bounced upward into the reversal that reclaimed the entire drop in 3 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short with a few ticks of slippage at about 1.0188, then had an opportunity to close out with about 8 ticks at or above the S2 Pivot as it repeatedly tested that level in the first 15 seconds of the reaction

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 09.04.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Sep 042012

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 06.05.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jun 052012

6/5/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.6%
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9765
1st Peak@ 0.9820 – 1531 (1 min)
55 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9851 – 1734 (124 min)
86 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 0.9816 – 1955 (265 min)
35 ticks (multiple bottom)

Notes: Report was very strongly positive coupled with a decent previous upward revision. This caused a large spike of 55 ticks, with a follow on 2nd peak about 20 ticks higher 25 min after the report, a final peak of 86 ticks (31 higher) about 2 hrs after the report, and then a reversal of 35 ticks almost 4.5 hrs after the report.. The initial spike crossed only the 50 SMA and the R3 Pivot. The market used the 50 and 100 SMAs mostly as support until about 3 hrs after the report when the reversal took hold. Then it crossed all three SMAs to find strong support 2 ticks above the R3 Pivot. As this was a very strong report, the market rallied over a long period of time and the bears were relegated to the sidelines until 3 hrs after the report.

6A 06 12 (2 Range) 06.05.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jun 052012

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 03.06.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Mar 062012

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 03.06.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Mar 062012

3/6/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1430 HI time / 1930 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0555
1st Peak@ 1.0505 – 1431 (1 min)
50 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0495 – 1455 (25 min)
60 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 1.0522 – 1511 (41 min)
27 ticks (3x top)

Notes: Report was strongly negative, with a decent previous downward revision. This caused a large spike of 50 ticks, with a follow on peak 10 ticks lower, and a relatively small reversal not even half of the magnitude of the 2nd peak . The initial spike crossed all three major SMAs, but as the 1st peak more than doubled the distance from the origin to the 200 SMA, we saw a 20 tick pullback, but nothing more as is continued downward. After seeing the double bottom at 1.0495, I would enter a long trade at about 1.0497 and exit at about 1.0519 when it crossed the 50 SMA.

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