5/5/2015 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 57.6
Actual: 54.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5122
1st Peak @ 1.5080 – 0430:01 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.5129 – 0451 (21 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with a large 3.4 pts offset. This caused a quick short spike of 42 ticks that started on the 100/200 SMAs and OOD then fell to nearly reach the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD in 1 sec. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 1.5112 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak and retrace quickly to hover around the S1 Mid Pivot. In this case, due to the large offset and reversal likely due to “too much too fast”, stay in and wait for it to drop again later in the bar. This would have allowed an exit with about 25 ticks as it hovered at 1.5087 as the bar expired. Then it reversed 49 ticks in the next 20 min to the Major SMAs and the PP Pivot.

7/2/2015 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 56.6
Actual: 58.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5582
1st Peak @ 1.5602 – 0430:03 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.5595 – 0430:16 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5610 – 0434 (4 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.5592 – 0451 (21 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 1.5609 – 0533 (63 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 1.5 pts offset. This caused a quick long spike of 20 ticks that started on the 50 SMA then rose to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs but fall just short of the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.5589 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak after 3 sec. It reversed 7 ticks quickly before climbing for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 3 min to the PP Pivot / OOD. This would have allowed an exit between 10 and 20 ticks. After that it reversed 18 ticks in 17 min to the 200 SMA before pulling back 17 ticks in 42 min.

9/2/2015 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 57.6
Actual: 57.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5300
1st Peak @ 1.5292 – 0430:25 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5282 – 0437 (7 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.5301 – 0454 (24 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in modestly weaker than the forecast with 0.3 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 8 ticks in 25 sec that started on the 200 SMA and fell to reach the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 1.5296 with no slippage, then seen it trickle lower to the 100 SMA to allow about 3 ticks to be captured where it hovered. After a few min struggling with the 100 SMA, it fell for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 6 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 17 min to the OOD. After that it fell again, but unlikely due to the sentiment from this report.

11/3/2015 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 58.9
Actual: 58.8
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.5415
1st Peak @ 1.5420 – 0430:46 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 1.5398 – 0444 (14 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 1.5162 – 0434 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.5148 – 0440 (10 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.5149 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.5168 – 19 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.5163 (above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Quick and large spike due to the large offset. Profit target would have filled nicely, otherwise exit quickly with the hovering.

1/5/2016 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 56.1
Actual: 57.8
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.4701
1st Peak @ 1.4716 – 0430:02 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.4693 – 0432 (2 min)
23 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4673 – 0501 (31 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 1.4687 – 0502 (32 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4705 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4707 – 2 ticks (likely exit 1.4704 – 1 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4715 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Quick spike reversed after 3 sec due to the strong resistance of the 200 SMA and PP Pivot. Look to exit quickly near breakeven. It continued to reverse following the momentum of the downtrend.