Core CPI | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 03-14 (1 Min) 1.24.2014

Core CPI Comments Off

Jan 302014

1/24/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.4%
Core CPI Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.2%
CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9008 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9032 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))24 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9016 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Extended Reversal to 0.8990 – 0831:50 (2 min)
)))-42 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.9037 – 0847 (17 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8996 (on the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8989 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.9019 (just above the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.9028 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and on the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that was large, shooting up 24 ticks to come up just short of the HOD. The long move would have filled both of your short entries and peaked about 4 ticks above the outer tier. Then it would have retreated strongly, giving back 16 ticks in 11 sec and 42 ticks nearly 2 min after the report. Since the report was matching, it can be expected to reverse beyond the origin, so a target around the R1 Mid Pivot would be prudent. With an average short position at about 0.9024, this would allow up to 30 ticks to be captured. After the reversal, it rebounded for a 2nd peak as it hit the HOD 15 min later. Then it drifted lower again in a lazy manner.

6C 12-13 (1 Min) 10.18.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

Dec 272013

10/18/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.9695
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9690 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-5 ticks

Reversal to 0.9699 – 0830:03 (1 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 0.9694 – 0831:16 (2 min)
-5 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9707 – 0911 (41 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and slightly impressed traders on the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that was tame, moving only 5 ticks away from the anchor point as it was bound by the S1 Mid Pivot/LOD and PP Pivot. A trap trade setup of 8-12 ticks offset with a level of support/resistance was recommended. In this case, use 0.9695 as the anchor point as the center of the price action in the last several min. The area just above the 200 SMA at 0.9705 would be an ideal place for the short entry and the area just below the S1 Pivot at 0.9686 would be an ideal place for the long entry. Neither would have filled as the :31 bar played out as a tame, dull double wicker with only 9 ticks movement. Cancel the order with no fill. No follow on manual entries are recommended on this report as it is a small mover anyway with no clear opportunities.

6C 12-13 (1 Min) 9.20.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

Dec 272013

9/20/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9700
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9689 – 0829:59 (0 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9705 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9689 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9704 – 0834 (4 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was conflicted with 0.1% better than expected on the core reading and 0.1% worse than expected on the regular reading. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that swung between the S2 Mid Pivot and S1 Pivot with the 100/200 SMAs in the middle of the action. A trap trade setup of 8-12 ticks offset with a level of support/resistance was recommended. In this case, use 0.9700 as the anchor point on the 200 SMA. The area below the S2 Mid Pivot at 0.9690 would be an ideal place for the long entry and with no level of resistance above, use 0.9710 as the short entry. The long entry would have filled with 1 tick to spare then given you 10-15 ticks of profit on the 2nd rebound. After the last reversal on the :04 bar, it retreated to trade sideways below the 200 SMA.

6C 09-13 (1 Min) 8.23.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

Dec 272013

8/23/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.0%
Core CPI Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9461
1st Peak @ 0.9469 – 0829:59 (0 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9455 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9480 – 0836 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9463 – 0908 (38 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report exactly matched the forecast on the core and regular readings with a result of 0.0% on the core. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that strayed about 6-8 ticks away from the origin on either side in the first few min between the S3 Mid Pivot and S2 Pivot with all 3 major SMAs in the middle of the action. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9467 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it stop you out for a 10 tick loss with 3 ticks of slippage. After the :35 bar it achieved a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs. Due to the developing trend of matching reports causing indecisive reactions, we are shifting to the Trap Trade approach.

6C 09-13 (1 Min) 07.19.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/19/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.2%
Core CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.2%
CPI Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9629
1st Peak @ 0.9614 – 0831 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9622 – 0833 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9607 – 0904 (34 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.9618 – 0928 (58 min)
11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9634 – 1035 (125 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and slightly disappointed traders on the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused a safe and tame 15 tick short spike. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9622 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover within 5 ticks of your fill point. Look to exit with about 4 ticks with a profit target. After the :31 bar due to the nearly matching results, little movement was seen. It reversed from the low of the peak for 8 ticks back to the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot, then fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks 30 min later. Then the slow developing reversal eventually achieved 27 ticks in the next 90 min.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 5.17.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

May 252013

5/17/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.0%
CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9716
1st Peak @ 0.9673 – 0831 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9714 – 0842 (12 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused an unsustainable short reaction. With a bearish market before the report, the market sentiment gave it momentum to seek out the S4 Pivot, but holding that level was too difficult. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9710 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop down quickly and retreat before any profit target would be able to capture it within 3 sec. The remainder of the :31 bar traded close to the fill point to slightly in the red. With the disappointing report and bearish market with plenty of room to the S4 Mid pivot, it was safe to wait on a follow on short move to exit with a few ticks. I managed 6 ticks on the :33 bar, but up to 13 could have been captured. After that it reversed to eclipse the20 SMA in 12 min. Then it attempted a 2nd peak, but could only manage 0.9690 before pulling up and trading sideways.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 4.19.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

May 062013

4/19/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9735
1st Peak @ 0.9727 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9743 – 0831 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and nearly matched the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused an indecisive reaction. With a slightly bearish market before the report, the market sentiment caused it to short first to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD, then it reversed to cross the 50 SMA and R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9739 with no slippage, then seen it reverse and stop you out with a 9 tick loss on 2 ticks of slippage. After the indecisive :31 bar, it rallied to nearly reach the 200 SMA, then chopped sideways.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 3.27.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

May 062013

3/27/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.6%
CPI Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9810
1st Peak @ 0.9834 – 0834 (4 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.9814 – 0916 (46 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9806 – 1013 (103 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading. With a bearish market before the report that had begun to correct, the market sentiment was fairly neutral and trading just above the PP pivot and 200 SMA. This caused a 24 tick spike that initially eclipsed the HOD and extended it 10 ticks. The :31 bar saw a decent pullback, but the next 3 bars saw it nearly reach the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9820 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up and give you a brief opportunity at 8-10 ticks. Otherwise, if you had waited you could have gotten out on the following 3 bars with slightly more ticks. After the peak, it fell, but tried for a 2nd peak. Failing to go any higher, it reversed in the next 30 min to cross the 50 and nearly reach the 100 SMA. The extended reversal saw 8 ticks more to reach the PP Pivot 1 hour later.

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 1.25.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

May 062013

1/25/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.2%
Core CPI Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.2%
CPI Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9922
1st Peak @ 0.9896 – 0831 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.9918 – 0841 (11 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading. With a bearish market before the report causing a slightly oversold sentiment, the spike was large, but crossing the S3 Pivot made it unsustainable and brought on a quick reversal. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9916 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it shoot down and hover between 0.9896 and 0.9908. I would place a buy limit order at the lower end of the tail (0.9897) and move the stop loss to 0.9913, 2 ticks above the S3 Pivot. You would get up to 19 ticks. After the peak, the selling momentum ran out and the S3 Pivot pulled it back up for a 22 tick reversal in only 10 min.

6C 12 12 (1 Min) 10.19.12

Core CPI Comments Off

Oct 192012

10/19/2012 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0091
1st Peak @ 1.0077 – 0231 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0106 – 0305 (35 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading. With a bearish market before the report causing a slightly oversold sentiment, the spike was quick and unsustainable as it crossed the S2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0082 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to hover around 1.0087. Close out there with about 5 ticks of loss, before it heads to your stop loss. With a narrowly disappointing report, and the strong support of the S2 Pivot, the short move is over. The reversal gained 15 ticks beyond the origin in about 30 min to cross the 50 SMA and hit the 100 SMA.

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