Canadian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 09-15 (1 Min) 7.10.2015

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Aug 262015

7/10/2015 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: -9.0K
Employment Change Actual: -6.4K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 6.9%
Rate Actual: 6.8%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7869
Whipsaw between 0.7855 and 0.7886 – 0830:00 (1 min)
31 tick span

Pullback to 0.7889 – 0830:24 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7872 – 0844 (14 min)
17 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.7834 – 0942 (72 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 0.7855 – 1008 (98 min)
21 ticks

Notes: This report lived up to the advertised risk and gave us a whipsaw spanning 31 ticks in the opening second. This would have filled either long or short, then stopped with a few ticks of slippage for about a 20 tick loss. In the remainder of the :31 bar, it pulled back 20 ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot and HOD before reversing on the back end of the bar. Then it hit a triple top in the next 3 min before reversing 17 ticks in 13 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. It continued to reverse for another 38 ticks in about an hour to the S1 Pivot before pulling back 21 ticks in 26 min after crossing the S1 Mid Pivot / 50 SMA.

6C 09-15 (1 Min) 7.15.2015

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Aug 262015

7/15/2015 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.50%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.7814
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7732 – 1000:10 (1 min)
)))-82 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7747 – 1000:59 (1 min)
)))15 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.7732 – 1003 (3 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7753 – 1013 (13 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 0.7728 – 1025 (25 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7798 (just below the LOD) / 0.7790 (below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7831 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7841 (on the PP Pivot)

Notes: After the surprise rate cut in January, the BOC again surprised the market with a 25 BP cut 6 months later. This caused a large short spike of 82 ticks that would have filled both long tiers and then hit the stop for a total loss of 50 ticks. It continued to bottom as it fell another 30 ticks from the stop position. Then it reversed 15 ticks as the :01 bar expired before pulling back 15 ticks in 2 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 10 min to the 13 SMA before falling 25 ticks in 12 min. After that it traded sideways for the next few hours between the S4 Pivot and LOD.

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 1.20.2016

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Jan 262016

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 1_20_2016 6C 03-16 (Second) 1_20_2016

1/20/2016 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 0.25% (25 BP rate cut)
Actual: 0.50%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.6836
—————-
Trap Trade:
))) 1st peak @ 0.6904- 1000:03 (1 min)
)))68 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.6868 – 1000:30 (1 min)
)))-36 ticks
—————-
Double Top @ 0.6904 – 1007 (7 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.6875 – 1010 (10 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 0.6896 – 1016 (16 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.6827 – 1100 (60 min)
69 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.6805 (in between the LOD / S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.6782 (just above the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.6866 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot/OOD) / 0.6889 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.6866 and 0.6889 (both short tiers)
Best Initial Exit: 0.6869 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.6870 (just below the old LOD and midpoint of the spike)

Notes: The BOC failed to act to cut rates after it was expected and priced in…so the market spiked decisively long. Still with the widened settings, it would have allowed up to 17 ticks on the initial reversal. The double top is a great reversal opportunity, and the bounce off the 13 EMA at 1010 is also expected.

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 1.22.2016

Core CPI Comments Off

Jan 272016

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 1_22_2016

1/22/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.3%
Core CPI Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.4%
CPI Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7061 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7051 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7066 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))15 ticks
—————-
Continued Reversal to 0.7072 – 0833 (3 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 0.7056 – 0837 (7 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7063 – 0845 (15 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7044 – 0858 (28 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.7072 – 0926 (56 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7050 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.7041 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7073 (just above the HOD) / 0.7081 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Good setup with Rtl sales conflicting with the CPI, but the reaction was small by about 2 ticks, so cancel the order.

6C 03-14 (1 Min) 1.24.2014

Core CPI Comments Off

Jan 302014

1/24/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.4%
Core CPI Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.2%
CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9008 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9032 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))24 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9016 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Extended Reversal to 0.8990 – 0831:50 (2 min)
)))-42 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.9037 – 0847 (17 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8996 (on the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8989 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.9019 (just above the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.9028 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and on the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that was large, shooting up 24 ticks to come up just short of the HOD. The long move would have filled both of your short entries and peaked about 4 ticks above the outer tier. Then it would have retreated strongly, giving back 16 ticks in 11 sec and 42 ticks nearly 2 min after the report. Since the report was matching, it can be expected to reverse beyond the origin, so a target around the R1 Mid Pivot would be prudent. With an average short position at about 0.9024, this would allow up to 30 ticks to be captured. After the reversal, it rebounded for a 2nd peak as it hit the HOD 15 min later. Then it drifted lower again in a lazy manner.

6C 03-14 (1 Min) 1.22.2014

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Jan 302014

1/22/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DOWNWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 0.9101
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9066 – 1000:00 (1 min)
)))-35 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9098 – 1000:10 (1 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9076 – 1000:16 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9096 – 1000:53 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9075 – 1001:17 (2 min)
)))-21 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.9017 – 1148 (108 min)
84 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – between 0.9073 and .9069 (in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.9128 (just above the R2 Pivot )

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected citing trying to balance the risks of disinflation and inflation. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a downward FAN in the long term that started out with large swings that catered well to the Trap Trade. The initial reaction fell 35 ticks to hit the S2 Mid Pivot, then retreated nearly to the origin 10 sec later. This would have filled the long entry with about 3-7 ticks to spare, then given you an opportunity to exit around 0.9095 with 20+ ticks when it reversed up to the PP Pivot. It continued to repeat another 20 tick cycle, before eventually settling into a bearish move. When that becomes obvious. it would be safe to sell the reversals when it approaches the 13/20 SMAs. It achieved a total of 84 ticks in just under 2 hrs as it crossed the S3 Pivot, and never achieved more than a handful of ticks on an attempted reversal.

6C 12-13 (1 Min) 10.18.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

Dec 272013

10/18/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.9695
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9690 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-5 ticks

Reversal to 0.9699 – 0830:03 (1 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 0.9694 – 0831:16 (2 min)
-5 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9707 – 0911 (41 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and slightly impressed traders on the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that was tame, moving only 5 ticks away from the anchor point as it was bound by the S1 Mid Pivot/LOD and PP Pivot. A trap trade setup of 8-12 ticks offset with a level of support/resistance was recommended. In this case, use 0.9695 as the anchor point as the center of the price action in the last several min. The area just above the 200 SMA at 0.9705 would be an ideal place for the short entry and the area just below the S1 Pivot at 0.9686 would be an ideal place for the long entry. Neither would have filled as the :31 bar played out as a tame, dull double wicker with only 9 ticks movement. Cancel the order with no fill. No follow on manual entries are recommended on this report as it is a small mover anyway with no clear opportunities.

6C 12-13 (1 Min) 9.20.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

Dec 272013

9/20/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9700
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9689 – 0829:59 (0 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9705 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9689 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9704 – 0834 (4 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was conflicted with 0.1% better than expected on the core reading and 0.1% worse than expected on the regular reading. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that swung between the S2 Mid Pivot and S1 Pivot with the 100/200 SMAs in the middle of the action. A trap trade setup of 8-12 ticks offset with a level of support/resistance was recommended. In this case, use 0.9700 as the anchor point on the 200 SMA. The area below the S2 Mid Pivot at 0.9690 would be an ideal place for the long entry and with no level of resistance above, use 0.9710 as the short entry. The long entry would have filled with 1 tick to spare then given you 10-15 ticks of profit on the 2nd rebound. After the last reversal on the :04 bar, it retreated to trade sideways below the 200 SMA.

6C 09-13 (1 Min) 8.23.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

Dec 272013

8/23/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.0%
Core CPI Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9461
1st Peak @ 0.9469 – 0829:59 (0 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9455 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9480 – 0836 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9463 – 0908 (38 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report exactly matched the forecast on the core and regular readings with a result of 0.0% on the core. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that strayed about 6-8 ticks away from the origin on either side in the first few min between the S3 Mid Pivot and S2 Pivot with all 3 major SMAs in the middle of the action. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9467 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it stop you out for a 10 tick loss with 3 ticks of slippage. After the :35 bar it achieved a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs. Due to the developing trend of matching reports causing indecisive reactions, we are shifting to the Trap Trade approach.

6C 12-13 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

12/4/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9362
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))Choppy Noise until 1000:16

)))1st peak @ 0.9374 – 1000:33 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9345 – 1002:40 (3 min)
)))-29 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.9372 – 1016 (16 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.9345 – 1049 (49 min)
27 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected citing disinflation or moderating inflation to near zero levels as a concern. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a choppy, volatile indecisive move that triggered movement in the markets about 2 min early. The initial reaction was noise with no discernible direction until 16 sec into the bar when it broke out long for only 12 ticks to the 100 SMA, then the following reversal fell 29 ticks on the next 2 bars to the S2 Pivot. A trap trade setup of 20-30 ticks offset with a level of support/resistance was recommended. In this case, use 0.9362 as the anchor point. The midpoint between the PP Pivot and OOD at 0.9386 would be an ideal place for the short entry and about halfway between the S2 Pivot and S3 Mid Pivot at about 0.9339 would be an ideal place for the long entry. With no impulse to fill either entry after the :01 bar, cancel the order. Manual entries on the following bars would be safe to sell around the 100 SMA or buy at the S2 Pivot with stops about 5 ticks away. It ended up trading between the 50 SMA and the S2 Pivot for the next 2+ hrs until the 50 SMA fell to the S2 Pivot.

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