6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3.20.2013

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May 092013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3_21_2013

3/20/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast:  51.2
Actual: 51.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0309
1st Peak @ 1.0323 – 2146 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0308 – 2235 (50 min)
15 ticks

Notes:  Report mildly impressed the traders, with no previous report revision.  This caused a long spike of 14 ticks that peaked on the :46 bar.  The market had been trading sideways before the report above the SMAs for the most part, so the long spike was able to go up without much resistance.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0317 with 4 ticks of slippage. Look to exit with about 3-4 ticks on the :47. After pulling back to the 13 SMA, it attempted a 2nd peak but only achieved a double top.  Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 35 min back to eclipse the 200 SMA.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.24.2013

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May 082013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2_25_2013

2/24/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast:  52.2
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 52.3
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0279
1st Peak @ 1.0246 – 2051 (6 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0258 – 2122 (37 min)
12 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0270 – 0012 (207 min)
24 ticks

Notes:  Report disappointed the traders, with a moderate positive previous report upward revision.  This caused a short spike of 33 ticks (30 on the :46 bar) that peaked on the :51 bar.  The market had been trending slightly lower before the report, but had begun to correct, so the short spike was able to use the 100 and 50 SMAs near the origin more as resistance to accelerate the short move.  Then it crossed the S2 Pivot and bottomed at 1.0246.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0465 with abnormally high 10 ticks of slippage. Look to exit around 1.0250 where it hovered as the :46 bar was expiring.  It then reversed for 12 ticks in the next 30 min back to the 50 SMA.  After trending sideways and struggling to reverse through the SMAs, it eventually achieved 24 ticks about 3.5 hrs after the report.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1.23.2013

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May 082013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1_24_2013

1/23/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: 51.9
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 51.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0485
1st Peak @ 1.0495 – 2047 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.0481 – 2054 (9 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0508 – 2126 (41 min)
23 ticks

Final Reversal to 1.0468 – 0003 (198 min)
40 ticks

Notes:  Report impressed the traders, with a moderate positive previous report revision.  This caused a long spike of only 10 ticks that peaked on the :47 bar.  The market had been trending lower before the report, but had begun to correct, so the long spike hit the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot and could go no higher.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0489 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit just above the 200 SMA with 4-5 ticks. It then reversed for 14 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 100 / 50 SMAs, before ascending for a slower and bigger 2nd peak of 23 ticks 30 min later, eclipsing the PP Pivot.  The final reversal saw a fall of 40 ticks in about 2.5 hrs.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

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Nov 212012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

11/21/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1545 HI time / 2045 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 49.5
Spike / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0367
1st Peak @ 1.0383 – 1547 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.0368 – 1557 (12 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with a moderate positive previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 16 ticks that peaked on the :47 bar. The market had been trending higher before the report, so no SMAs were crossed, and the R2 Pivot was just below the start point. With JOBB on a 4 tick bracket you would have filled long with no slippage at 1.0371, then had an opportunity to exit at about 1.0380 for 9 ticks max. The reversal took over quickly, nearly surrendering the entire gain in 12 min.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

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Oct 232012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

10/23/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1545 HI time / 2145 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 49.1
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 47.9
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0251
1st Peak @ 1.0268 – 1547 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.0258 – 1548 (3 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0273 – 1623 (38 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0262 – 1659 (74 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with a negligible positive previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 17 ticks that peaked on the :47 bar. The market had been trending higher before the report after a positive CPI report 75 min earlier, so no SMAs were crossed, but the R2 Pivot was crossed near the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled at 1.0257 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 7-9 ticks as it peaked. It quickly reversed for 10 ticks, then climbed for a slightly higher peak, backed off, then achieved the final peak of 22 ticks 38 min after the report. The final reversal yielded 11 ticks in 36 min after the final peak, crossing the 50 SMA and bottoming on the 100 SMA.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

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Sep 192012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

9/19/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 47.8
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 47.6
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0379
1st Peak @ 1.0388 – 1631 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0348 – 1705 (35 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the traders, with a small negative previous report revision. This caused a long spike of only 9 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar, going against the grain and hitting all 3 SMAs. Unable to sustain the rise, it bounced off of the 200 SMA and fell, erasing the 9 ticks on the :32 bar, and a total of 40 ticks in the next 33 min, crossing the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0384 with no slippage, and had a brief opportunity to close out between breakeven and a 2-3 tick gain. This would be an ideal reversal trade given the conditions. I would sell at about the 50 SMA on the :32 bar then take it to at least the S1 for 9 ticks.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

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Aug 222012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

8/22/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 47.8
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 49.3
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0419
1st Peak @ 1.0396 – 1633 (3 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0406 – 1634 (4 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0391 – 1642 (12 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0417 – 1802 (92 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a small negative previous report revision. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks that peaked on the :34 bar, crossing the 100 and 200 SMAs. With the market engaged in a rally in the previous 90 min before the report, it was looking to correct. This aided the selling momentum as it was able to sustain the drop and stay below the 200 for more than 30 min after it crossed. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0414 with no slippage, and had an opportunity to close out between the 200 SMA and 1.0398 for about 14 ticks. It achieved a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks before reversing slowly for 26 ticks over 80 min.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 07.23.12

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Jul 232012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 07.23.12

7/23/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 49.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 48.2
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0130
1st Peak @ 1.0152 – 1631 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0143 – 1637 (7 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0155 – 1638 (8 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.0137 – 1656 (26 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with a negligible positive previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 SMAs near the origin and the R1 Pivot halfway up the spike. With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0135 with no slippage, and had an opportunity to close out at the top of the :31 bar for about 16 ticks. It reversed to close the gap to the 13 SMA for 9 ticks, then it achieved a 2nd Peak of 3 more ticks. The reversal crossed the R1 Pivot and came down to eclipse the 50 SMA for 18 ticks in 18 min

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

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Jun 202012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

6/20/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 48.1
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 48.4
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0001
1st Peak @ 0.9988 – 1634 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0001 – 1646 (16 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9986 – 1701 (31 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9998 – 1744 (74 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a small negative previous report revision. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks that peaked on the :34 bar. Since the market was trending lower, no SMAs or Pivots were crossed. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.0096 with no slippage, and had an opportunity to close out with 4-5 ticks. It reversed to reclaim the 13 tick drop 12 min later, then achieved a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks, testing the LOD 15 min later. The reversal crossed the 50 SMA and eclipsed the 100 SMA for 12 ticks 43 min after the 2nd peak.

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