6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

 Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015
May 032015
 

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4_30_2015

4/30/2015 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.0
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7872 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.7882 – 2100:24 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7875 – 2100:33 (2 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7866 – 2115 (16 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast as it exceeded by only 0.1% to cause a 10 tick long spike that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs and reach the PP Pivot. As usual it released about 13 sec early. With JOBB you would have been filled long at 0.7878 with 1 tick of slippage then been seen it reach the 200 SMA and hover for 4 sec before reversing. Due to the matching forecast and apparent barrier reached at the 200 SMA and PP Pivot, look to exit there with 3-4 ticks. It reversed just after that for 7 ticks, then fell another 9 ticks in the next 14 min to nearly reach the LOD. If you did not exit before the reversal, you would have been able to exit at 0.7875 with a 3 tick loss.

We advised a delayed approach on the HG 07-15, but due to the matching forecast, this would have disqualified that approach.

HG 07-15 (1 Min) 5.3.2015

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May 112015
 

HG 07-15 (1 Min) 5_3_2015

5/3/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 48.9
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 2.9065
1st Peak @ 2.9045 – 2145:15 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 2.9085 – 2145:24 (1 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin of 0.5 pts but caused a muted reaction. This caused a short move of 4 ticks in 15 sec after starting on the 200 SMA. This would have filled the short order with no slippage at 2.9055 at 4 sec then allowed an exit at breakeven to 1 tick of profit up to 13 sec later. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 7 sec and chopped around the 200 SMA for 6 min.

HG 07-15 (1 Min) 5.20.2015

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May 312015
 

HG 07-15 (1 Min) 5_20_2015

5/20/2015 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 49.1
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 48.9
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.8370
1st Peak @ 2.8385 – 2145:49 (1 min)
3 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast with a modest downward previous report revision. This caused a small 3 tick long spike in 49 sec that started on the 20 SMA and did not budge until 20 sec after the release to make it an easy decision to cancel the order. After the meager spike, it traded sideways and eventually resumed climbing.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a premature long move and choppy movement to invalidate the trade.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.31.2015

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Jun 092015
 

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5_31_2015

5/31/2015 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.7642 (2058)
1st Peak @ 0.7638 – 2059:03 (2 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and was released about 1:45 min early. This resulted in a 4 tick short move in about 1 min. No matter when the software was set to activate, this would not have filled with a 5 tick bracket, so cancel the order with no discernible movement other than noise no later than 21:30:15.
We advised a delayed approach on the HG 07-15, but due to the matching forecast, this would have disqualified that approach.

HG 07-15 (1 Min) 5.31.2015

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Jun 162015
 

HG 07-15 (1 Min) 5_31_2015

5/31/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.2
Actual: 49.2
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.7360
1st Peak @ 2.7375 – 2145:25 (1 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.7385 – 2150 (5 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 2.7350 – 2201 (16 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast to cause a muted and delayed reaction. This caused a long move of only 3 ticks after 25 sec. Since no movement happened, cancel the order after 15 sec. It continued to gain 2 more ticks in 4 more min to breach the HOD, then reversed 7 ticks in 11 min to the 50 SMA.

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 6.22.2015

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Jul 062015
 

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 6_22_2015

6/22/2015 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 49.6
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 49.2
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.6100
1st Peak @ 2.6120 – 2148 (3 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.6185 – 2201 (16 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 2.6125 – 2218 (33 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast with a negligible downward previous report revision. This caused a dull reaction that took 3 min to achieve 4 ticks. Cancel the order with no fill. It eventually grabbed another 13 ticks on the final peak in 13 more min before reversing 12 ticks in 17 min.

We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a small long spike of 6 ticks allowing 1-2 ticks to be captured.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

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Jul 262015
 

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 6_30_2015

6/30/2015 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7672 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.7687 – 2059:59 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7668 – 2100:08 (2 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 0.7679 – 2100:21 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7665 – 2101:25 (3 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 0.7685 – 2111 (12 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.3% to cause a 15 tick long spike that started on the OOD and rose to cross all 3 Major SMAs and reach the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing. It released about 5 sec early. With JOBB you would have been filled long at 0.7678 with 1 tick of slippage then been seen it quickly garner 10 ticks before reversing. A profit target of 11 ticks or less would have filled and been prudent as it reversed strongly and quickly to the origin and slightly beyond for 19 ticks in 9 sec. Then it pulled back 11 ticks in 13 sec before reversing 16 ticks in 1 min. Then it pulled back 20 ticks in 9 min.

We advised a delayed approach on the HG 09-15, but due to the near matching results, this would have disqualified that approach.

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

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Aug 022015
 

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 6_30_2015

6/30/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 49.4
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.6150
1st Bar Span – 2.6150 – 2.6150 (1 min)
1 tick

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.2 pts. This caused only 1 tick of total movement on the :46 bar to make the decision to cancel easy.

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 8.2.2015

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Aug 022015
 

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 8_2_2015

8/2/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.3
Actual: 47.8
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.3545
1st Peak @ 2.3480 – 2147:08 (3 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 2.3550 – 2151 (6 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 2.3505 – 2153 (8 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 2.3575 – 2214 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.5 pts to cause a short move of 13 ticks in a little over 2 min. It started on the 3 Major SMAs and fell to cross the S1 Pivot. This would have filled your short entry at 2.3535 with no slippage, then trickled down to the S1 Pivot to allow up to 10 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 14 ticks in 3 min to the 200 SMA before pulling back 9 ticks in 2 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 21 min after crossing the OOD.

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 7.23.2015

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Sep 052015
 

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 7_23_2015

7/23/2015 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 48.2
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 49.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.3650
1st Peak @ 2.3580 – 2146:03 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 2.3620 – 2147 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.3570 – 2150 (5 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 2.3635 – 2151 (6 min)
13 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.3705 – 2249 (64 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a negligible downward previous report revision. This caused a slow developing short spike of 14 ticks that took a little over a min. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 2.3630 with 1 tick of slippage. Then you would been able to capture up to 9 ticks when it peaked and hovered as the :46 bar was expiring. After that it reversed 8 ticks in 1 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 3 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 1 min to the 50 SMA and another 14 ticks in 1 hr to the 200 SMA.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a short spike of 30 ticks allowing about 10 ticks to be captured.

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