CNY Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 8.20.2015

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 152015

8/20/2015 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.1
Actual: 47.1
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 48.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.3125
1st Peak @ 2.3095 – 2145:59 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 2.3145 – 2151 (6 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 2.3100 – 2157 (12 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 2.3145 – 2210 (25 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.0 pts with a modest downward previous report revision. This caused a slow developing short spike of only 6 ticks that took about a min to realize. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 2.3110 with no slippage. Then you would been able to capture 1-2 ticks when it hovered near the bottom. Move the stop to breakeven if you are waiting for a larger drop as it often peaks later. After that it reversed 10 ticks in 5 min back to the 20 SMA before pulling back 9 ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 9 ticks to the 50 SMA in 13 min.

We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a short spike of 17 ticks allowing up to 8 ticks to be captured.

HG 12-15 (1 Min) 8.31.2015

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 152015

8/31/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 47.2
Actual: 47.3
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.3330
1st Bar Span – no move (1 min)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a negligible margin of 0.1 pts. This caused no move until the :47 bar to make the decision to cancel easy.

HG 03-14 (1 Min) 1.22.2014

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 302014

1/22/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 49.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.3315
1st Peak @ 3.3225 – 2049 (4 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 3.3265 – 2051 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.3180 – 2135 (50 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 3.3235 – 2219 (94 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report moderately disappointed the traders, with no previous report downward revision. This caused a short spike of 18 ticks that started just below the S1 Mid Pivot, crossed all 3 major SMAs, and eventually reached the S2 Pivot / LOD on the :48/:49 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.3295 with about 1 tick of slippage. In this case we have the 100/200 SMAs and S2 Mid Pivot in play on the :46 bar, which together make up a strong barrier. However, after a few sec in the bar, it never retreated above the 200 SMA. Since this report often peaks after 1 min, the drop was sustained, and you have a decent spread on the results, stay in and target the area just above the S2 Pivot around 3.3240 since that area was holding as support in the last hour or so. That would have easily filled for 11 ticks on the :48 bar. After reaching the S2 Pivot, it reversed for 8 ticks back to the S2 Mid Pivot 2 min later. Then it fell for a slow, but deliberate 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 45 min, just above the S3 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 1.19.2014

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jan 302014

1/19/2014 CNY Quarterly GDP (2100 EST)
Forecast: 7.6%
Actual: 7.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (Early release)
Started @ 0.8743 (2159:14)
1st Peak @ 0.8758 – 2200 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.8743 – 2201 (2 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8772 – 2106 (7 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.8753 – 2123 (24 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report that was 0.1% better than forecast released about 6 sec early to cause a long spike of 15 ticks that reached the R1 Pivot, then chopped between the origin and the R2 Pivot 2 times. With JOBB and a properly synchronized clock, you would have seen the bracket activate after the initial burst and a small retreat. Fortunately there was a lull in the movement for about 5 sec to allow the orders to be cancelled before a fill would have happened. If you had not cancelled the order, with JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.8755 with 1 tick of slippage. It hovered near the R2 Pivot for about 15 sec, so look to exit near break even. After the reversal to the origin on the :01 bar, it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot on the :06 bar. Then it reversed for 19 ticks in the next 17 min, back to the 50 SMA. We also advise placing a manual order on the HG in the same direction as the 6A reacts with the anticipation of a delayed move about 2-4 min later. In this case, buy the HG at about 3.3480 and look for about 6-8 ticks since it was a narrow offset on the result.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.31.2013

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 012013

10/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 51.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9434 (2056)
1st Peak @ 0.9445 – 2057 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9438 – 2058 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9452 – 2105 (9 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9432 – 2121 (25 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast to offer little stimulus to the market and was released at 2055:49 (about 4 min early) making it impossible to trade. This caused a small long move of 11 ticks that eclipsed the HOD on the :57 bar. Even though the report was premature, with near matching results, and a breakout long, we can expect a good reversal. After the peak, it backed off briefly then continued to reach the PP Pivot for another 7 ticks in 7 min. Then it reversed for 20 ticks in the next 16 min back to the 200 SMA and the OOD. After that it rebounded and rode the 50/100 SMAs slightly higher.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9.30.2013

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 012013

9/30/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 51.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9258 (2058)
1st Peak @ 0.9242 – 2100 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.9282 – 2107 (9 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.5 points to mildly disappoint traders. This caused a short move that move came at 2059:39. The 5 tick bracket would have been safe to remain in wait for the :59 and :00 bars. The short spike crossed the S2 Pivot and terminated 4 ticks above the S3 Mid Pivot for 16 ticks, then reversed quickly. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9251 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall for 9 ticks in a few sec, and pullback after 7 sec. Look to exit with a handful of ticks before it surrenders the gain. After the peak, it continued to reverse for 40 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot in the next 7 min. The final burst to pop through the 200 SMA could not sustain and left 10 ticks on the wick naked. After that it traded sideways for the next 20 min close to the 200 SMA until the AUS Retail Sales report broke at 2130.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.17.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Nov 302013

10/17/2013 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EST)
Forecast: 7.8%
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.9586 (2159:20)
1st Peak @ 0.9597 – 2201 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9569 – 2209 (10 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Matching report offering little impetus, but we saw a large spike on the :58 – :59 bars that is unexplained. At the time it could have been a premature release, which could not be confirmed until several minutes later. It was not, but even the presence of the spike is enough to invalidate the trade. The release caused a small and unsustainable long spike of 11 ticks that eclipsed the PP Pivot, OOD, and HOD, then backed off leaving 7 ticks on the bar naked. If you had not cancelled the order, with JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9592 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit within 2-3 ticks of breakeven as the :00 bar ebbed to a close. After the spike, it continued to reverse for 28 ticks in the next 8 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the S2 Mid Pivot. This is the second report with strange premature results, but fortunately it is a trigger to cancel the order, and even if traded, it would have been safe.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 11.20.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 302013

11/20/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 50.9
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.1520
1st Peak @ 3.1460 – 2047 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 3.1565 – 2055 (10 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report mildly disappointed the traders, with no previous report downward revision. This caused a short spike of 12 ticks that started on the 100 SMA, crossed the 200 SMA, and matched a level of support reached about 15 min before the report. It was unable to reach the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD looming only 3 ticks lower. While the reaction culminated on the :47 bar, it did not sustain the level after that. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.1500 with no slippage. Wait for the :46 bar to expire. As it is finding support in the same area as the price action from 2032, I would place a target on the S1 Mid Pivot at 3.1445 and move the stop to 3.1480. The stop would have filled on the :48 bar to capture 4 ticks of profit. After the initial spike, it reversed for 21 ticks in the next 8 min, crossing all 3 major Pivots and reaching the PP Pivot. After that it oscillated once and then settled down to trade close to the SMAs.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 10.23.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 192013

10/23/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.9
Previous Revision: -1.0 to 50.2
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.2700
1st Peak @ 3.2775 – 2147 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 3.2720 – 2203 (18 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the traders, offset by a sizable previous report downward revision. This caused a long spike of 15 ticks that crossed the 100 SMA and PP Pivot, and also eclipsed the HOD. As usual the reaction culminated on the :47 bar and held the level for about 5 min. The reaction started on the 200 SMA after a decent drop about 40 min before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.2735 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the HOD at about 3.2770 with about 7 ticks. After the initial spike, it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 13 min back to the 100 SMA. While it did not go for a 2nd peak, it did oscillate between the 100 SMA and HOD for the next hour or so.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 9.22.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 222013

9/22/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.9
Actual: 51.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.2700
1st Peak @ 3.2820 – 2147 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 3.2730 – 2205 (20 min)
18 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.2680 – 2247 (62 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the traders, with no previous report revision and a reading even higher above 50. This caused a long spike of 24 ticks that eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot and sustained most of the advance on the :47 bar. The market had sold off about 70 ticks about 45 min before the report when the German election results were announced with Merkel winning a decisive victory. Then it was slowly recovering from the drop as the report hit. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.2735 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the S3 Mid Pivot at about 3.2810 with about 15 ticks. Due to the narrow offset of the result over the forecast, and the aftermath of the elections, be it would not be advisable to stay in for a 2nd peak; however, if you did, when it failed to go higher after 15 min while the 100 SMA was falling and the MACD crossed, get out before the reversal. After 15 min of trading sideways on the S3 Mid Pivot, it reversed for about 18 ticks in the next 4 bars to hit the 50 SMA. Then after another 40 min, it yielded another 10 ticks as volume dried up and it traded sideways.

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