3/31/2016 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: -0.1%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.1382
1st Peak @ 1.1375 – 0500:22 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.1392 – 0507 (7 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1.1381 – 0511 (11 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1377
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1376 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1374 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) – move up slightly

Notes: Dull Fill but offered a breakeven or 1 tick exit at the intersection of the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA. A nice reversal followed for 17 ticks to the R1 Pivot.

6/30/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 1.3659
1st Peak @ 1.3663 – 0500:00 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.3656 – 0502 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3666 – 0517 (17 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.3653 – 0549 (49 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a dull spike of 4 ticks immediately to the R2 Mid Pivot that reversed quickly. With JOBB and a 5 ticks bracket, your order would not have filled and kept you safe from a losing trade. Cancel the order after the minimal move with no fill. After the spike it reversed 7 total ticks in the next min to the 100 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 15 min, eclipsing the R2 Mid Pivot and extending the HOD. After that it reversed 13 ticks in 32 min to the 200 SMA.

8/29/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision:n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3179
1st Peak @ 1.3195 – 0500:38 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3187 – 0502 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3197 – 0503 (3 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.3180 – 0514 (14 min)
17 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.3177 – 0533 (33 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks immediately followed by a slower climb for 6 more ticks after 38 sec. This would have filled your long entry at 1.8185 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed up to 9 ticks to be captured as it peaked on the R1 Pivot. It reversed 8 ticks in 1 min to the R1 Mid Pivot followed by a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 11 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA and another 3 ticks in 19 min to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA.

10/31/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2576
1st Peak @ 1.2556 – 0510 (10 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2564 – 0515 (15 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2552 – 0521 (21 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.2567 – 0541 (41 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading fell short of the forecast by 0.1% with a 0.1% upward revision on the previous report. This caused a dull initial reaction that only strayed 2 ticks away from the origin. This would have been an easy decision to cancel the order. Then we saw it fall 20 ticks in the next 9 min after crossing the S1 Pivot. This is bizarre due to the delayed reaction and no forex factory indication of a late release. It reversed 8 ticks in 5 min to the S1 Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 15 ticks in 20 min to the 100 SMA and traded sideways before another news report at 0600 caused a long spike.

1/7/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1861
1st Peak @ 1.1855 – 0500:00 (1 min)
-6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1880 – 0500:19 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 1.1855 – 0501:30 (2 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.1884 – 0510 (10 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 1.1855 – 0536 (36 min)
29 ticks

Notes: The broader reading fell short of the forecast by 0.2% while the core reading exceeded the forecast by 0.2%. As the broader reading almost always comes in matching and the instance of conflict between the results is even rarer, we saw a whipsaw. It fell 6 ticks immediately to the S2 Pivot followed by a 21 tick reversal in the next 2 sec, then another 4 ticks in 17 sec to cross the 50/100 SMAs and reach the 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.1856 with no slippage then stopped you out at 1.1865 instantly for a 9 tick loss including 1 tick of slippage. It continued to chop up and down as the period between the his and lows grew between swings. Then after about an hour it started to drift lower. As the first time we made this report ready for primetime, it resulted in a loss, but the cause was valid with the results.