9/6/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2621
1st Peak @ 1.2663 – 0147 (2 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.2630 – 0216 (31 min)
33 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially rallied strongly for 42 ticks, peaking on the :47 bar on the assurance that Mario Draghi would act this time. So the market rallied, then trading sideways for 30 min and reversed for 33 ticks. When the press conference began at 0230, the market was initially choppy as Draghis comments created confusion, then the market settled into a stepped decline. The ECB buy bonds in an attempt to hold together the single currency until the politicians unite and agree upon steps toward a closer political union. This mixed bag caused the tame selloff on the back end. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 1.2632 then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2654 as it hovered near the top of the bar. You could also set your sell limit at the R2 Pivot since it is a convenient and close target.

7/5/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75% (0.25% cut)
Actual: 0.75% (0.25% cut)
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 1.2529
1st Peak @ 1.2498 – 0146 (1 min)
31 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2396 – 0241 (56 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 1.2426 – 0255 (70 min)
30 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to cut the Minimum Bid Rate 0.25% to 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face leave rates unchanged. The 6E predictably sunk into a downward fan as the currency was devalued for 31 ticks on the 1st peak and 133 on the final peak nearly an hour later. Then we saw a small corrective reversal of 30 ticks before it fell again and traded sideways. Not much mystery here…a cut was expected and acted on. The press conference also explained the rate cut and the reasoning – all bearich news for the 6E. The initial spike was sitting on all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot in a tight fist, then crossed the S2 and S3 Pivots on the descent. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2518 with about 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2506, but I would stay in for the long haul since a cut was executed. Close out when the MACD crosses and it is able to rebound above the 20 SMA at about 0248 – 0251 at 1.2415 for over 100 ticks.

5/3/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3147
1st Peak @ 1.3161 – 0146 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3147 – 0148 (3 min)
14 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1.00% in line with all economists expectations. Mario Draghi did not hint at any move, and stuck to the baseline scenario of recovery Where LTRO is allowed to run its course. With little mystery before or after the rate announcement, the 6E made a quick jump for 14 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot, then fell to the starting point 2 bars later with nothing in the news able to sustain the bulls and the resistance powerful. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.3155 with about 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with a few ticks at the S1 Pivot. With all the indicators there as it stalled on the gain, get out before it reverses. Notice the drop after the Press conference started at 0230, followed by a 30 min strong rally. This was due to the eventual realization that the ECB was not acting in any fashion to ease.