1/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 51.8
Actual: 51.0
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.6
Actual: 52.7
Previous Revision: +0.7 to 51.6
INDECISIVE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.1347
1st Peak @ 1.1339 – 0330:01 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1350 – 0330:14 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1262 – 0357 (27 min)
85 ticks

Reversal to 1.1295 – 0404 (34 min)
33 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1223 – 0510 (100 min)
124 ticks

Reversal to 1.1250 – 0536 (126 min)
27 ticks

Notes: As the French report was conflicting and resulted in a dull reaction, we discouraged trading this report. The manufacturing reading came in 0.8 points below the forecast with no revision on the previous report while the services reading came in matching with a moderate upward previous report revision. This caused a whipsaw that fell 8 ticks then reversed 11 ticks in 14 sec. There was also a trigger to cancel as the market was choppy in the waning seconds before the report. If traded, with JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.1341 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it bob around your fill point before reversing and stopping you out for a 5 tick loss. After the reversal, the bears took over still reeling from the ECB action yesterday to drive it lower for another 77 ticks on a 2nd peak to cross the S1 Pivot in 26 min. Then it reversed 33 ticks in 7 min to the 20 SMA / S1 Pivot before falling for a final peak of 39 more ticks in the next hour as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 26 min.

3/24/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 52.4
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 51.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 55.3
Previous Revision: -0.8 to 54.7
DULL REACTION (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.0985
1st Peak @ 1.0995 – 0430:31 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.0989 – 0432 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1012 – 0438 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.0984 – 0456 (26 min)
28 ticks

Notes: As the French report was conflicting and resulted in a dull / indecisive reaction, we discouraged trading this report, but it would have been safe. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points above the forecast with a negligible revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 0.3 points above the forecast with a healthy downward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks in 31 sec that started on the 13 SMA and climbed to eclipse the HOD. This would have filled the long entry at 1.0990 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed an exit with 4 ticks where it hovered. Then it reversed 6 ticks in the next min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 17 more ticks in 6 min as it crossed the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 28 ticks in 18 min to the R1 Pivot / 50 SMA.

5/21/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual: 51.4
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 52.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 52.9
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 54.0
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1130
1st Peak @ 1.1112 – 0330:59 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.1121 – 0332 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1109 – 0334 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.1163 – 0346 (16 min)
54 ticks

Pullback to 1.1135 – 0358 (28 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.5 points below the forecast with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading also came in 1.0 points below the forecast with a moderate downward previous report revision. With nearly all of the news bearish, we saw a decisive short spike for 18 ticks that crossed the 50 / 200 SMAs and reached the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.1125 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall and hover at about 1.1116 in between the SMAs to allow about 9 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 9 ticks in the next min to the 50 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 2 min. After that it reversed 54 ticks in 12 min before pulling back 28 ticks in 12 min to the 50 SMA.

7/24/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 51.5
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.1
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 53.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0971
1st Peak @ 1.0953 – 0330:01 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.0963 – 0332 (2 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0943 – 0341 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0959 – 0403 (33 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.6 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with no revision on the previous report while the services reading also came in 0.4 points below the forecast with a moderate downward previous report revision. We saw a slow developing short spike of 18 ticks that took all of the :31 bar to peak. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0968 with no slippage, then seen it slowly fall 15 more ticks to allow up to 13 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 10 ticks in 1 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 9 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 22 min to the 50 SMA.

9/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.8
Actual: 52.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 53.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.5
Actual: 54.3
Previous Revision: +1.3 to 54.9
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1154
1st Peak @ 1.1151 – 0330:01 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 1.1160 – 0330:16 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1143 – 0335 (5 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.1149 – 0337 (7 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1127 – 0358 (28 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.1148 – 0406 (36 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1151 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1154 – 3 tick loss (5 tick stop otherwise)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1142 (below the 100 SMA)

Notes: Indecisive initial reaction, but fell nicely in the secondary reaction using the 20 SMA as resistance.