German Flash Manufacturing PMI | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.23.2015

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 222015

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11_23_2015

11/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 52.2
Actual: 52.6
Previous Revision: +0.5 to 52.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 55.6
Previous Revision: -0.7 to 54.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.0635
1st Peak @ 1.0643 – 0331:11 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0647 – 0334 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0635 – 0339 (9 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: French Report was unsafe, so do not trade.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1.22.2016

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 072016

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1_22_2016

1/22/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 53.0
Actual: 52.1
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 53.2
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 55.4
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 56.0
INDECISIVE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.0846
1st Peak @ 1.0842 – 0330:02 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.0851 – 0330:39 (1 min)
9 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.0861 – 0343 (13 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: French Report was a dull fill, so do not trade. This would have resulted in a 5 tick stop out if traded.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 312014

1/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 54.7
Actual: 56.3
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 54.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.1
Actual: 53.6
Previous Revision: -0.5 to 53.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3600 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3624 – 0329 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.3615 – 0330 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3642 – 0340 (12 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.3624 – 0347 (19 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1.6 points above the forecast to impress with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 0.5 points below the forecast with a moderate bearish previous report revision to cause a stable bullish reaction as the Manufacturing dominated. This resulted in a 24 tick long move that started on the 20 SMA and crossed the R3 Mid Pivot on the :29 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3607 with 3 ticks of slippage, then a target at or just above the R3 Mid Pivot would have been ideal for about 17+ ticks of profit. This would have filled on the :29 bar or the :31 bar. After the peak, it reversed only 9 ticks on the next bar, then after chopping sideways for a few min, it climbed to a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks to come up just short of the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks in the next 7 min back to the R3 Mid Pivot and 20 SMA.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 11.21.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

11/21/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 52.5
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 51.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.1
Actual: 54.5
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 52.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3411 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3431 – 0329 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.3424 – 0330 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3435 – 0357 (29 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.3418 – 0406 (38 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in nearly matching the forecast with a negligible previous revision and the services reading came in 1.4 points above the forecast with a moderate bullish previous report revision to cause a stable bullish reaction. This resulted in a 20 tick long move that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot on the :29 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3417 with 2 ticks of slippage, then it a target at or just above the S1 Mid Pivot would have been ideal for about 10 ticks profit. This would have easily filled at a few times during the price action. After the peak, it reversed only 7 ticks on the next bar, then slowly climbed to a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks just before the Eurozone report came out bearish. After that it gave back 17 ticks in 9 min, briefly crossing all 3 major SMAs.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 10.24.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

10/24/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 51.5
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 51.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.8
Actual: 52.3
Previous Revision: -0.7 to 53.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3794 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3778 – 0331 (3 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3790 – 0343 (15 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3766 – 0410 (42 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.3795 – 0431 (63 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in matching the forecast with a negligible previous revision and the services reading came in 1.5 points below the forecast with a moderate bearish previous report revision to cause a stable bearish reaction. This resulted in a 16 tick short move that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and hit the OOD on the :31 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3787 with 2 ticks of slippage, then it would have retreated to 5 ticks in the red and slowly come back down to give profit, then continue to fall on the next 2 bars. Given the solidly bearish results, this is a situation safe to wait for the delayed reaction. After the peak, it reversed 12 ticks in 12 min, back to the 20 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in about 30 min after the Eurozone report came out bearish. After that it gave back 29 ticks in 20 min to the 100 SMA, and traded sideways.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 9.23.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

9/23/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 51.3
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 51.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 52.8
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3542 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3534 – 0329 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3546 – 0329 (1 min)
-12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3511 – 0359 (31 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1.3521 – 0407 (39 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1 point below the forecast with a negligible previous revision to moderately impress and the services reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast with a moderate bullish previous report revision to cause an indecisive reaction. This resulted in a 8 tick short move that hit the R1 Mid Pivot and immediately reversed long to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. Due to the French report 30 min earlier having conflicting results, this report would have been designated riskier. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3536 with 2 ticks of slippage, then the 5 tick stop would have filled with no slippage immediately. After the :29 bar settled in the middle of the bar, it methodically fell for the next 30 min for another 22 ticks as it hit its low on the entire Eurozone results that were released at 0358. Then it retreated 10 ticks in 8 min. After that it traded sideways.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.22.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 242013

8/22/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 52.0
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 50.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.7
Actual: 52.4
Previous Revision: -1.2 to 51.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3334 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3359 – 0329 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.3343 – 0334 (6 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3366 – 0402 (34 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.3348 – 0419 (51 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in nearly 1 point above the forecast to moderately impress and the services reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast to cause a healthy long spike that was unsustainable. This resulted in a 25 tick long spike on the :29 bar that started on the 13 SMA and crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot, nearly reaching the HOD. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3350 with abnormally high 12 ticks of slippage then had an opportunity to exit with about 5-7 ticks as it hovered before leaving the wick naked. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 16 ticks until the :34 bar, then it geared up for a 2nd peak that culminated on the :02 bar crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and HOD after the EU sector reports came out bullish. Then the final reversal gave back 18 ticks in 17 min back to eclipse the 50 SMA.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.24.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/24/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 48.6
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.9
Actual: 52.5
Previous Revision: -0.9 to 50.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3215 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3253 – 0331 (3 min)
38 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3258 – 0339 (11 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.3231 – 0411 (43 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1 point above the forecast to moderately impress and the services reading came in 1.6 points above the forecast to cause a strong long spike. This resulted in a 38 tick long spike over 3 bars that started on the 20 SMA and crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3231 with abnormally high 12 ticks of slippage then had an opportunity to exit with about 10 ticks at a minimum with ease. After the 1st peak, we saw a small correction, then it achieved 5 more ticks after 8 min. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/20/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 49.9
Actual: 48.7
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 49.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 51.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.7
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 1.3260 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3241 – 0329 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3265 – 0330 (2 min)
-24 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.3198 – 0443 (75 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 1.3232 – 0459 (91 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Based on the FED news hangover on the currency markets and the performance of the French report 30 min earlier, this report was disqualified at the last minute. Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint while the services reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast to cause an indecisive reaction. This resulted in a 19 tick unsustainable short spike over 1 bar that started on the 100/200 SMAs and fell to hit the LOD then retreat back to the origin quickly. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3252 with 4 ticks of slippage then been stopped with a 6 tick loss (1 tick slippage) on the quick reversal. After the indecisive :01 bar, it traded sideways for 5 min, then turned into a downward fan when the news did not serve to abate the overall selling momentum. It garnered another 43 ticks in the next 75 min to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot, then reversed for 34 ticks back up to the 100 SMA in 16 min.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.13

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 042013

5/23/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 49.0
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 48.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 49.8
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 49.6
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.2865 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.2878 – 0329 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2855 – 0329 (1 min)
-23 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2906 – 0457 (89 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.2879 – 0517 (109 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 0.4 points above the forecast to moderately impress while the services reading came in 0.4 points lower than expected to cause an indecisive reaction. This resulted in a 13 tick long spike over 1 bar that popped up and reversed for 23 ticks. It carved out a higher HOD, then reversed through the 13/20 SMAs and pulled up to settle slightly higher. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2870 with 1 tick of slippage then been stopped with a 6 tick loss (1 tick slippage). Depending upon your broker and feed, you might have seen it hit your stop loss and short entry for an additional loss. After the indecisive :01 bar, it traded sideways for several min, then stepped up for higher peaks. The final peak of 41 ticks was achieved about 1.5 hrs after the report, eclipsing the PP Pivot, then it reversed back to the 100 SMA.

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