10/23/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 48.1
Actual: 45.7
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 47.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3000 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2980 – 2129 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2964 – 2149 (21 min)
36 ticks

No Reversal due to German IFO report at 2200

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in 2.4 points below the forecast to disappoint. This caused a 20 tick short spike over 1 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot, bottoming 1 tick above the LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2995 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit somewhere between the PP Pivot and the LOD with about 12-15 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for a small 9 ticks, that could not reach the 13 SMA, then fell again for a 36 tick 2nd peak, extending the LOD by 15 ticks. Due to the German IFO Business report breaking bearishly at 2200, the reversal did not have a chance to materialize, so I wrote it off.

8/22/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 43.5
Actual: 45.1
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 43.0
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.2567 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2574 – 2129 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.2561 – 2129 (1 min)
13 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.2538 – 2223 (55 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in 1.6 points over the forecast to impress. This caused a dull reaction of a 7 tick long spike on 1 bar that eclipsed the R1 Pivot and could not sustain the rise with the HOD looming 2 ticks higher. After hovering for about 7 sec, it began a slow but deliberate retreat of about 1 tick every 5 sec for a 13 tick reversal. Oddly, the strong French PMI reading caused a bullish rally in the last 30 min that apparently exhausted the bulls even after positive news. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2571 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at about break even as it could not go higher than the R1 Pivot and the HOD was another barrier of resistance. Even if you missed the initial exit, it came back up to the R1 Pivot 9 min later and tested it several times. After it could not penetrate the R1 Pivot, it fell for 36 ticks in the following 45 min, crossing each of the major SMAs. Then it traded sideways just below the 200 SMA.

6/20/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 45.3
Actual: 44.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 45.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2683 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2671 – 2202 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2651 – 2147 (19 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.2673 – 2205 (37 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in 0.6 points under the forecast to mildly disappoint. This caused a 12 tick drop over 4 bars that did not cross any SMAs or Pivots, but struggled with a previous low and level of support at 1.2673. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2679 with 1 tick of slippage. Either look to exit at the level of previous low at 1.2673 with 6 ticks, or be patient and see if it crosses the LOD then ride the selloff until the 13 crosses the 20 SMA for 20 or more ticks. After a small 9 tick reversal to the 13 SMA, it fell again for the next 14 min to a 2nd peak of 32 total ticks, extending the LOD by 18 ticks. Then it reversed for 22 ticks in 18 min, eclipsing the 50 SMA by about 4 ticks. After that it continued a choppy ascent back up to the 200 SMA where it struggled, but eventually broke through long.