7/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 106.3
Actual: 106.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3231
1st Peak @ 1.3240 – 0401 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.3209 – 0411 (11 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3168 – 0545 (105 min)
72 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly matching to cause a relatively muted reaction. Even with a matching report, it was still a strong reading and rallied long, but was already trading at the HOD, so it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot, then fell for the reversal. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3237 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit around breakeven as it hovered before falling. Look to exit there with the hovering and recognizing the matching report. After the :01 bar, we saw a long developing large reversal that continued to step lower finding support at the PP Pivot, then the S1 Mid Pivot, and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot as it gained 72 ticks.

5/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 104.6
Actual: 105.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2929
1st Peak @ 1.2961 – 0401 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.2947 – 0408 (8 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2993 – 0507 (67 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 1.2957 – 0540 (100 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The reading came in about 1 point above the forecast to impress the traders. The report came a few (14) sec late and caused a long spike of 32 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.2941 with an abnormally high 7 ticks of slippage. A tight stop would have filled due to the high slippage, so we will expand the stop to 10 ticks for the future to accommodate the slippage and internal retracement. If you were not stopped out, you would have had an opportunity to exit at about 1.2958 as it hovered near the top of the bar for 10 sec, garnering 17 ticks. After the peak, it retreated to near the 13 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot for 14 ticks in 7 min, then it popped back up for a peak at 1.2989 as the bottom of the hour. Then it traded sideways for nearly 40 min on the R2 Mid Pivot unable to break out long or short. Finally it popped up to 1.2993 for the final peak, then reversed for 36 ticks in about 30 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

10/24/2012 German IFO Business Climate (2200 HI time / 0400 EDT)
Forecast: 101.5
Actual: 100.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2967
1st Peak @ 1.2942 – 2203 (3 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2928 – 2218 (18 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 1.2946 – 2239 (39 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.5 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a 25 tick short spike on 2 bars (mostly on the :01 bar) that crossed the S1 Pivot about halfway down, then bottomed as it extended the LOD by 21 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2960 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit with about 15 ticks near the bottom of the :01 bar. After the initial peak, it pulled back for 8 ticks, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 39 total ticks at the S2 Pivot 18 min after the report. The reversal gave back 18 ticks relatively quickly in the next 21 min to nick the 50 SMA. Then it chopped sideways between 1.2946 and the S2 Pivot for the next 2 hrs.