11/18/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.9
Actual: 11.5
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL (BREAKEVEN EXIT)
Anchor Point @ 1.2517 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2535 – 0500:08 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2529 – 0500:14 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.2543 – 0501:45 (2 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.2517 – 0511 (11 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.2541 – 0519 (19 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.2515 – 0531 (31 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2507 (just above the 50 SMA) / 1.2498 (just below the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 1.2526 (No SMA/Pivot near)/1.2534 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a margin of 10.6 points. This caused a more decisive long spike than we usually see for 18 ticks initially that found resistance at the R2 Pivot. This would have filled your inner and outer short entries making an average short position at about 1.2530. You would have only seen a 6 tick reversal allow an exit near breakeven as the bar was expiring. It would have been safe to exit here with the strong reaction. If you stayed in and waited, you would have seen 13 ticks of heat after 2 min before it collapsed back to the 13 SMA in the next 3 min for 26 ticks allowing about 7 ticks (14 total ticks) to be captured. Again we can count on the delayed reversal even after taking heat. After the reversal, it pulled back 24 ticks to fall just short of a double top after 8 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 12 min to the 50 SMA.

2/17/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 55.4
Actual: 53.0
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1390
1st Bar Span: 1.1386 – 1.1394
+/- 4 ticks

1st Peak @ 1.1380 – 0503 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.1404 – 0521 (21 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 2.4 points below the forecast causing an unstable small whipsaw in the first 23 sec to bounce around but fortunately not trip the bracket as it did not breach 5 ticks from the origin until the :02 bar started. With JOBB, cancel the order on the dull and unstable move. It settled down to fall 10 ticks for a 1st peak on the :03 bar. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 18 min to reach the HOD.

4/21/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 53.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0690
1st Peak @ 1.0699 – 0500:08 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0672 – 0507 (7 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0704 – 0531 (31 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0682 – 0618 (78 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 2.3 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained long spike of 9 ticks in 8 sec that crossed the S2 Pivot / 200 SMA before reversing. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 1.0696 with 1 tick of slippage, then hovered 1-3 ticks in profit. Look to exit on the hovering or reverse the order as we know this report has a tendency to reverse quickly and strongly. Sure enough, it reversed 18 ticks in the next 6 min. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 24 min to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 47 min after crossing the 200 SMA.

6/16/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 37.5
Actual: 31.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1274
1st Peak @ 1.1262 – 0500:05 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1277 – 0503 (3 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 1.1268 – 0507 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1285 – 0510 (10 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1.1269 – 0528 (28 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 6 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 12 ticks in 5 sec that nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.1268 with 1 tick of slippage, then hit the bottom and backed off to hover between breakeven and 3 ticks profit. As this report often reverses quickly, it is advised to exit or reverse the trade at the first sign of hovering. So look to reverse at about 1.1266 with 2 ticks then exit above the PP Pivot at about 1.1276 for 10 more ticks on the reversal. After that it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to the old LOD position before reversing 17 ticks in 3 min to the 50 SMA. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in 18 min as it used the 50 SMA as resistance.

8/11/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 31.7
Actual: 25.0
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.1043
1st Peak @ 1.1035 – 0500:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1047 – 0500:41 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1024 – 0519 (19 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.1040 – 0531 (31 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 6.7 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 8 ticks immediately that reached the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.1038 with no slippage, then hit the bottom and backed off to hover between 2-3 ticks in the red. Move the stop to about 4 ticks away and look to exit. It reversed 12 ticks in 41 sec as it crossed the 50 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 18 min. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 12 min to the 100 SMA.