9/15/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 18.3
Actual: 12.1
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1322
1st Bar Span 1.1319 to 1.1326 – 0501 (1 min)
+4/- 3 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.1339 – 0516 (16 min)
17 ticks
Reversal to 1.1321 – 0556 (56 min)
18 ticks
Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a
Notes: Cancel the report with no fill.
10/13/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 6.8
Actual: 1.9
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1391
1st Peak @ 1.1374 – 0501:44 (2 min)
17 ticks
Reversal to 1.1393 – 0514 (14 min)
19 ticks
Pullback to 1.1377 – 0536 (36 min)
16 ticks
Reversal to 1.1401 – 0553 (53 min)
24 ticks
Expected Fill: 1.1386 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1375 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1382 (below the R1 Mid Pivot)
Notes: Slow to launch, but solid reaction eclipsed the PP Pivot in nearly 2 min.
11/17/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 6.7
Actual: 10.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0675
1st Peak @ 1.0664 – 0503:03 (4 min)
11 ticks
Reversal to 1.0672 – 0516 (16 min)
8 ticks
Expected Fill: 1.0670 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.0665 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.0664 (below the 50 SMA)
Notes: Small reaction but 5 ticks capturable with patience.
12/15/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 15.2
Actual: 16.1
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1055
1st Bar Span 1.1054 to 1.1058 – 0501 (1 min)
+3/- 1 ticks
Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit:n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a
Notes: Near matching report caused a muted reaction.
1/19/2016 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 6.7
Actual: 10.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9689.5
1st Peak @ 9698.5 – 0500:16 (1 min)
18 ticks
Reversal to 9691.0 – 0501:18 (2 min)
15 ticks
Final Peak @ 9729.0 – 0509 (9 min)
79 ticks
Reversal to 9688.0 – 0519 (19 min)
82 ticks
Expected Fill: 9692.0 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9697.5 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9702.0 (20 ticks) – either move lower or be patient
Notes: Remember this report nearly always goes for a 2nd peak of about 60 ticks within 20 min. This case is no different and has no clear resistance barrier to conquer. Also great reversal after 11-12 min back to the 100 SMA.
1/21/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 63.4
Actual: 61.7
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1.3536 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3526 – 0500:07 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
)))Reversal to 1.3533 – 0500:23 (1 min)
)))7 ticks
)))Pullback to 1.3524 – 0500:49 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
)))Reversal to 1.3539 – 0504 (4 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3526 (below the S4 Mid Pivot and on the LOD) / 1.3519 (just below the S4 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3544 (just above the 200 SMA) / 1.3554 (in between the S1 Mid and S1 Pivots)
Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 1.7 points. This caused a short move of 10 ticks initially that hit the S4 Mid Pivot, then a reversal of 7 ticks back to the S3 Pivot, followed by a pullback to extend the LOD by 2 ticks. This was an ideal setup of the Trap Trade. The inner long entry would have filled later in the :01 bar as the initial impulse hit the limit order without filling. You would have seen 2 ticks of heat followed by a 3 bar reversal that gave back 15 ticks, beyond the origin and nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. I placed a target on the 100 SMA and captured 10 ticks with ease. After the reversal, it continued to oscillate for a few cycles between the S4 Mid Pivot and the S3 Mid Pivot for about another 75 min, then it trended lower.
11/19/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 54.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3515
Trap Trade:
————
)))1st Peak @ 1.3506 – 0500:22 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
)))Reversal to 1.3515 – 0503:04 (4 min)
)))9 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3493 – 0507 (7 min)
22 ticks
Reversal to 1.3511 – 0551 (51 min)
18 ticks
Notes: Report matched the forecast, as it was oscillating sideways with all 3 major SMAs above. This caused a small short move, but was an ideal setup of the Trap Trade. Use 1.3515 as the anchor point as the center of gravity in the last several min. The R1 Mid Pivot at 1.3525 would be ideal for the inner tier, but nothing is located 15-20 ticks long, so just go with 1.3532. The PP Pivot on the short side would be ideal for the inner tier and the OOD at 1.3499 for the outer tier. A long order just below the PP Pivot at 1.3507 would have filled, then allowed a profit of about 7 ticks on the 13 SMA. Be careful of being too greedy with all 3 SMAs acting as resistance and falling. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 22 ticks in the next 3 min, then reversed for 18 ticks in the next 45 min back to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA.
10/15/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 49.2
Actual: 52.8
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Started @ 1.3545
Trap Trade:
————
)))1st Peak @ 1.3556 – 0500:03 (1 min)
)))11 ticks
)))Reversal to 1.3530 – 0501:22 (2 min)
)))-26 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 1.3501 – 0533 (33 min)
55 ticks
Notes: Report was moderately impressive by beating the forecast, but was caught in a short trend that had begun just about 30 min before the report. This caused an initial long move that was quickly overcome by the sentiment to fall short in the later moments. This created a trickier situation for the setup of the Trap Trade. While the long move and subsequent reversal were ideal, the placement of the orders is not as easy. If you used 1.3550 as the anchor point, the long move would have missed a short order, and then filled the long entry at about 1.3540 and caused an eventual loss. An anchor point of 1.3545 would have been better, but only taken into account the movement of the :00 bar. This would have caused a short entry at 1.3555 to fill, then fall like a rock for 20+ ticks easily. After the first 2 bars, it never wanted to rebound, and methodically fell for almost 30 more ticks in the next 30 min to the S3 Pivot. Then it came back a few ticks and traded sideways.
9/17/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 45.3
Actual: 49.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Started @ 1.3358
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3377 – 0500:03 (1 min)
)))19 ticks
)))Reversal to 1.3361 – 0504:00 (4 min)
)))-16 ticks
Pullback to 1.3370 – 0518 (18 min)
9 ticks
Notes: Report was moderately impressive by beating the forecast. This caused a typical bullish reaction that was unsustainable, catering well to the Trap Trade. Using an anchor point of about 1.3358 as the average price action from the last few min, the long move would have filled the inside short entry at about 1.3368 and the 2nd tier at 1.3375 just above the R1 Pivot, while both long entries at 1.3348 and 1.3340 would have been left wanting. In this case the spike peaked at 1.3377 and would have filled both short entries for an average position of about 1.3372. Then I would use the R1 Mid Pivot at 1.3364 as a ideal target for 8 ticks of profit from the average position. It eventually came down to cross the 20 SMA, then popped back up above the R1 Mid Pivot to trade sideways.
8/13/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 40.3
Actual: 42.0
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.3298
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3312 – 0500:17 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
)))Reversal to 1.3302 – 0507:58 (8 min)
)))-10 ticks
)))Final Peak @ 1.3320 – 0521 (21 min)
)))22 ticks
Reversal to 1.3308 – 0525 (25 min)
12 ticks
Notes: Report was mildly impressive by beating the forecast. This caused a typical bullish reaction, that catered well to the Trap Trade. Using an anchor point of about 1.3298 as the average price action from the last few min in between the PP Pivot and the S1 Mid Pivot, the long move would have filled the inside short entry at about 1.3308, and the long entry at the S1 Pivot at 1.3289 would have been left wanting. In this case the spike peaked at 1.3312 and would have given you a max of 5 ticks in the red, then after 8 min, as it fell to 1.3302 and the PP Pivot gave a target of 6 ticks. This is not the best setup, but it still would be better than the traditional JOBB approach. After the reversal, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 12 min crossing the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 12 ticks back to the 20 SMA. Then it calmed down and traded sideways.