EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6.23.2015

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 032015

6/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 51.9
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 52.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.9
Actual: 54.2
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 53.0
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1285
1st Peak @ 1.1295 – 0330:01 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.1282 – 0332 (2 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 1.1293 – 0334 (4 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.1272 – 0350 (20 min)
21 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.4 points above the forecast with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading also came in 1.3 points above the forecast with a negligible previous report revision. We saw a shortly lived long spike of only 10 ticks to reach the upper limit of the trend channel established earlier. Since the French report was also long but not sustained, expect the same here. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.1291 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover 1-2 ticks in the red. Look to exit or reverse the order there due to the trend channel influence. It reversed for 13 ticks in 1 min before pulling back 11 ticks in 2 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 16 min as it crossed the 100 SMA. It also broke the upward trend channel and established a new channel downward that held until about 0505.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6.24.2015

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Jul 042015

6/24/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.2
Actual: 107.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1234
1st Peak @ 1.1222 – 0400:15 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1232 – 0400:30 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1220 – 0404 (4 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.1232 – 0413 (13 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.8 pts below the forecast to mildly disappoint the market. This resulted in a 12 tick short spike in 15 sec that started just below the HOD and fell to cross the 13/20 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.1229 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall another 7 ticks then reverse. If you had a profit target or were fast, you could have captured about 5 ticks. Otherwise watch it reverse and fall later to exit with a similar result. It fell for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks before reversing 12 ticks in 9 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Aug 022015

6/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.1152
1st Peak @ 1.1159 – 0500:00 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.1145 – 0500:41 (1 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1190 – 0513 (13 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 1.1170 – 0522 (22 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading matched the forecast with no previous revisions. This caused a quick pop long for 7 ticks that backed off and hovered before reversing later in the bar. It peaked on the S1 Pivot then reversed to the LOD. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.1157 with no slippage then seen it hover 1 tick in the red to allow a near breakeven exit. It reversed 14 ticks late in the bar before climbing for a 2nd peak of 31 more ticks in 12 min after crossing all 3 Major SMAs and nearly reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 9 min after crossing the 100 SMA.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7.14.2015

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Sep 032015

Caption for 7/14:
7/14/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 30.6
Actual: 29.7
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1038
1st Bar Span 1.1042 to 1.1034 – 0501 (1 min)
+/- 4 ticks

Notes: The reading came in less than 1 point worse than the forecast causing a quick pop for 4 ticks long followed by a reversal as it teetered on the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have been contained by the 5 tick bracket, so cancel the order. It continued to chop sideways for about 25 min before drifting lower to the PP Pivot.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7.24.2015

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 032015

7/24/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 49.6
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 50.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 52.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0997
1st Peak @ 1.0982 – 0300:39 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.0989 – 0302 (2 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0964 – 0325 (25 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0973 – 0330 (30 min)
9 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.5 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a negligible revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.9 pts below the forecast with no previous revision. This caused a short spike of 15 ticks in 39 sec that reached the S1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.0992 with 2 ticks of slippage, then it peaked and hovered between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA to allow up to 9 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 7 ticks to the 50 SMA before stepping lower for a final peak of 18 more ticks in 23 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot and extended the LOD. Then in reversed 9 ticks to the 13 SMA as it headed into the German report.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7.24.2015

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 032015

7/24/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 51.5
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.1
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 53.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0971
1st Peak @ 1.0953 – 0330:01 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.0963 – 0332 (2 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0943 – 0341 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0959 – 0403 (33 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.6 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with no revision on the previous report while the services reading also came in 0.4 points below the forecast with a moderate downward previous report revision. We saw a slow developing short spike of 18 ticks that took all of the :31 bar to peak. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0968 with no slippage, then seen it slowly fall 15 more ticks to allow up to 13 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 10 ticks in 1 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 9 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 22 min to the 50 SMA.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7.27.2015

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Sep 032015

7/27/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.6
Actual: 108.0
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 107.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1095
1st Peak @ 1.1121 – 0400:23 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.1095 – 0409 (9 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.1112 – 0414 (14 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.1080 – 0446 (46 min)
32 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.4 pts above the forecast to cause a larger than normal long spike of 26 ticks in 23 sec. After peaking it retreated quickly to hover about 7 ticks lower. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.1099 with no slippage, then seen it climb, peak and retreat to hover around 1.1114 to allow about 15 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 26 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA / R3 Pivot before pulling back 17 ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 32 ticks in 32 min to the 100 SMA.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7.31.2015

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Sep 042015

7/31/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.0945
1st Peak @ 1.0957 – 0501:30 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0966 – 0513 (13 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0954 – 0527 (22 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0995 – 0629 (89 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 1.0975 – 0714 (134 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading bested the forecast by 0.2% with no previous revisions. This caused an initial dull reaction with minimal movement until 47 sec into the :01 bar. Then it achieved 12 ticks in the next 43 sec. This should have been an easy decision to cancel the order, but it would not have hurt you to leave the orders on the board. It turned into a slow developing Fan that achieved a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 11 min to the R1 Pivot, followed by a 12 tick reversal in 9 min to the 50 SMA, then a final peak of 29 more ticks in the next 67 min after crossing the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 45 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.11.2015

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Sep 152015

8/11/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 31.7
Actual: 25.0
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.1043
1st Peak @ 1.1035 – 0500:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1047 – 0500:41 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1024 – 0519 (19 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.1040 – 0531 (31 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 6.7 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 8 ticks immediately that reached the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.1038 with no slippage, then hit the bottom and backed off to hover between 2-3 ticks in the red. Move the stop to about 4 ticks away and look to exit. It reversed 12 ticks in 41 sec as it crossed the 50 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 18 min. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 12 min to the 100 SMA.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.21.2015

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 162015

8/21/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 48.6
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 51.8
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1288
1st Peak @ 1.1279 – 0300:15 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1285 – 0303 (3 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1254 – 0330 (30 min)
34 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with no revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.3 pts below the forecast with no previous revision. This caused a short spike of 9 ticks in 15 sec that reached the S1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.1284 with 1 tick of slippage, then it peaked and hovered with 2-3 ticks. As this report often goes for a 2nd peak and only reversed 6 ticks, staying in for a larger drop would have been prudent as it fell 25 more ticks in the next 27 min into the German report after crossing the R2 Pivot.

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