6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.21.2015

 German Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.21.2015
Sep 162015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8_21_2015

8/21/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.7
Actual: 53.2
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 51.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.7
Actual: 53.6
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 53.8
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1255
1st Peak @ 1.1274 – 0330:00 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.1247 – 0336 (6 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 1.1261 – 0345 (15 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.1244 – 0409 (69 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.5 points above the forecast to impress the market with a modest downward revision on the previous report while the services reading matched with a negligible previous report revision. This caused a quick long spike of 19 ticks in 1 sec that crossed the R2 Pivot and reached the 50 SMA before reversing. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.1261 with 3 ticks of slippage then seen it peak and back off to hover just above the R2 Pivot. A profit target of 12 ticks or less would have filled, otherwise look to exit where it hovered with 5-6 ticks. It reversed to the origin in 1 min then another 8 ticks in 5 min as it eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in 9 min before reversing 17 ticks in 54 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.25.2015

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.25.2015
Sep 172015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8_25_2015

8/25/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.6
Actual: 108.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1532
1st Peak @ 1.1543 – 0400:07 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.1530 – 0400:30 (1 min)
13 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.1516 – 0403 (3 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1567 – 0438 (38 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.1545 – 0449 (49 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.7 pts above the forecast to cause a long spike of 11 ticks in 7 sec. After peaking it hovered before reversing. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.1536 with no slippage, then seen it hover at 1.1540 to allow 4 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 13 ticks in 23 sec then another 14 ticks in 2 min. Then it climbed for a final peak of 24 more ticks in 35 min after crossing the 200 SMA before reversing 22 ticks in 11 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.31.2015

 (Core) CPI Flash Estimate  Comments Off on 6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.31.2015
Sep 172015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8_31_2015

8/31/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 1.0%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1204
1st Peak @ 1.1218 – 0500:38 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.1206 – 0502 (2 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 1.1213 – 0505 (5 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.1200 – 0513 (13 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading also matched the forecast with no previous revisions. This caused a long spike of 14 ticks in 38 sec that started just below the PP Pivot and climbed to reach the 100 / 50 SMAs before reversing. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 1.1210 with 1 tick of slippage then trickled up to hover at 1.1217 as it hit resistance. Look to exit there with about 7 ticks. After that it reversed 12 ticks in 1 min to the PP Pivot before pulling back 7 ticks in 3 min to the 20 SMA. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 8 min.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.15.2015

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.15.2015
Dec 152015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9_15_2015

9/15/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 18.3
Actual: 12.1
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1322
1st Bar Span 1.1319 to 1.1326 – 0501 (1 min)
+4/- 3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1339 – 0516 (16 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.1321 – 0556 (56 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the report with no fill.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.13.2015

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.13.2015
Dec 152015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10_13_2015

10/13/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 6.8
Actual: 1.9
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1391
1st Peak @ 1.1374 – 0501:44 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.1393 – 0514 (14 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 1.1377 – 0536 (36 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.1401 – 0553 (53 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1386 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1375 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1382 (below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Slow to launch, but solid reaction eclipsed the PP Pivot in nearly 2 min.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.17.2015

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.17.2015
Dec 152015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11_17_2015

11/17/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 6.7
Actual: 10.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0675
1st Peak @ 1.0664 – 0503:03 (4 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.0672 – 0516 (16 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0670 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.0665 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.0664 (below the 50 SMA)

Notes: Small reaction but 5 ticks capturable with patience.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 12.15.2015

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 03-16 (1 Min) 12.15.2015
Dec 172015
 

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 12_15_2015

12/15/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 15.2
Actual: 16.1
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1055
1st Bar Span 1.1054 to 1.1058 – 0501 (1 min)
+3/- 1 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit:n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Near matching report caused a muted reaction.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.24.2015

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.24.2015
Dec 182015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9_24_2015

9/24/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.8
Actual: 108.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 108.4
DULL FILL…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1227
1st Peak @ 1.1233 – 0400:07 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1225 – 0400:48 (1 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1238 – 0401:40 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.11198 – 0422 (22 min)
40 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1231 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1231 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1240 (above the HOD)

Notes: Small reaction that recoiled due to the strong resistance of the HOD. This was also indicated by the large reversal after the 2nd peak.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.26.2015

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.26.2015
Dec 182015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10_26_2015

10/26/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.1
Actual: 108.2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1047
1st Peak @ 1.1041 – 0401:04 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1064 – 0411 (11 min)
23 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Near matching report caused no movement for 41 sec, then a 6 tick drop. Cancel the order.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.24.2015

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.24.2015
Dec 182015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11_24_2015

11/24/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.3
Actual: 109.0
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 108.4
DULL FILL…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0662
1st Peak @ 1.0674 – 0400:13 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0660 – 0405 (5 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 1.0667 – 0409 (9 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.0638 – 0513 (73 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0666 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.0673 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.0677 (above the R2 Mid Pivot) – move lower after the market hovered.

Notes: Average reaction that could not breakout above the HOD / R2 Mid Pivot resistance. Strong reversal due to the long run prior to the report.

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