6E 03-16 (1 Min) 12.17.2015

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 03-16 (1 Min) 12.17.2015
Dec 182015
 

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 12_17_2015

12/17/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 109.2
Actual: 108.7
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.0894
1st Peak @ 1.0889 – 0401:03 (2 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 1.0905 – 0408 (8 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 1.0891 – 0420 (20 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Report caused no movement for 41 sec, then a 5 tick drop. Cancel the order. Good reversal to trade as usual for 10+ ticks.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.30.2015

 (Core) CPI Flash Estimate  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.30.2015
Dec 212015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9_30_2015

9/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.1%
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.9%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1241
1st Peak @ 1.1232 – 0500:01 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1243 – 0500:02 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 1.1233 – 0505 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.1249 – 0518 (18 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1235 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: stopped – 1.1243 – 8 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1224(below the LOD and S1 Pivot

Notes: Quick whipsaw resulted in stop out to the tick.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.30.2015

 (Core) CPI Flash Estimate  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.30.2015
Dec 212015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10_30_2015

10/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1014
1st Peak @ 1.1006 – 0600:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1014 – 0600:05 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1001 – 0604 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.1012 – 0610 (10 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1009
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1009 – Breakeven after 30 sec (hovering)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1004 (below the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA)

Notes: Quick short spike and recoil, but it trickled lower in the next 2 minute for a nice 2nd peak.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 12.2.2015

 (Core) CPI Flash Estimate  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 12.2.2015
Dec 212015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 12_2_2015

12/2/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.1%
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0624
1st Peak @ 1.0601 – 0501:14 (2 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0610 – 0504 (4 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0584 – 0521 (21 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.0593 – 0531 (31 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0618
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.0602 – 16 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.0608 (below the S1 Pivot and LOD)

Notes: With the much bigger than normal spike, look for a continued push lower and wait until the 13 SMA is challenged to exit.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.23.2015

 French Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.23.2015
Dec 222015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9_23_2015

9/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 48.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 51.2
Previous Revision: -1.2 to 50.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1152
1st Peak @ 1.1162 – 0300:05 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.1148 – 0308 (8 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1170 – 0317 (17 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.1153 – 0328 (28 min)
17 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1155 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1162 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1167 (above the R1 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Great opportunity to trade the 2nd peak with a buy when it fell to the 13 SMA.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.23.2015

 French Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.23.2015
Dec 222015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10_23_2015

10/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 50.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 50.6
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.9
Actual: 52.3
Previous Revision: +0.7 to 51.9
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1122
1st Peak @ 1.1116 – 0259:59 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1126 – 0300:00 (1 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 1.1113 – 0300:54 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.1136 – 0312 (12 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1099 – 0319 (19 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.1109 – 0328 (28 min)
10 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1118 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.1123 – stopped 5 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Strange reaction that went the wrong direction and was volatile in the secondary movement.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.23.2015

 French Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.23.2015
Dec 222015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11_23_2015

11/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 50.7
Actual: 50.8
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 50.6
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 51.3
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 52.7
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0627
1st Peak @ 1.0619 – 0300:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0634 – 0300:22 (1 min)
15 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.0640 – 0309 (9 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 1.0627 – 0312 (12 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0623 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.0628 – stopped 5 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching reaction caused a whipsaw. It still allowed a great short trade at the 200 SMA at 0309.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.23.2015

 German Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.23.2015
Dec 222015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9_23_2015

9/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.8
Actual: 52.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 53.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.5
Actual: 54.3
Previous Revision: +1.3 to 54.9
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1154
1st Peak @ 1.1151 – 0330:01 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 1.1160 – 0330:16 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1143 – 0335 (5 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.1149 – 0337 (7 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1127 – 0358 (28 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.1148 – 0406 (36 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1151 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1154 – 3 tick loss (5 tick stop otherwise)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1142 (below the 100 SMA)

Notes: Indecisive initial reaction, but fell nicely in the secondary reaction using the 20 SMA as resistance.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.23.2015

 German Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.23.2015
Dec 222015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10_23_2015

10/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.8
Actual: 51.6
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 52.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.0
Actual: 55.2
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 54.1
INDECISIVE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.1108
1st Peak @ 1.1114 – 0330:27 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1106 – 0331:23 (2 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: French Report was unsafe, so do not trade.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.23.2015

 German Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.23.2015
Dec 222015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11_23_2015

11/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 52.2
Actual: 52.6
Previous Revision: +0.5 to 52.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 55.6
Previous Revision: -0.7 to 54.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.0635
1st Peak @ 1.0643 – 0331:11 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0647 – 0334 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0635 – 0339 (9 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: French Report was unsafe, so do not trade.

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