EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1.5.2016

Jan 142016

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1_5_2016

1/5/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 1.0%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0792
Whipsaw between 1.0786 and 1.0796 – 0500:01 (1 min)
-6/+4 ticks

Reversal to 1.0803 – 0500:30 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 1.0785 – 0506 (6 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.0798 – 0517 (17 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0787 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.0895 – 8 tick loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Unfortunate whipsaw for an 8 tick loss. Still note the nice short setup after 0503 with 2 failed attempts to climb above the 50 SMA.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1.19.2016

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jan 232016

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1_19_2016

1/19/2016 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 6.7
Actual: 10.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9689.5
1st Peak @ 9698.5 – 0500:16 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 9691.0 – 0501:18 (2 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 9729.0 – 0509 (9 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 9688.0 – 0519 (19 min)
82 ticks

Expected Fill: 9692.0 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9697.5 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9702.0 (20 ticks) – either move lower or be patient

Notes: Remember this report nearly always goes for a 2nd peak of about 60 ticks within 20 min. This case is no different and has no clear resistance barrier to conquer. Also great reversal after 11-12 min back to the 100 SMA.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1.25.2016

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Jan 272016

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1_25_2016

1/25/2016 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 108.5
Actual: 107.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 108.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9752.0
1st Peak @ 9745.5 – 0400:13 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 9753.0 – 0400:36 (1 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9708.5 – 0404 (4 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 9750.0 – 0411 (11 min)
83 ticks

Expected Fill: 9748.5
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 9746.5 (4 ticks)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9735.00 area (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Report caused a small initial move that recoiled, then a large and quick 2nd peak. Since almost every report has yielded a 2nd peak, and the initial spike was very anemic with a nice offset, stay in and be patient for a larger move. After the 2nd peak, due to the extension of the LOD it reversed nicely.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1.22.2016

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 072016

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1_22_2016

1/22/2016 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 50.0
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 51.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.4
Actual: 50.6
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 49.8
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.0845
1st Peak @ 1.0841 – 0300:02 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.0853 – 0305 (5 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 1.0839 – 0311 (11 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0842 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.0842 – breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.0837 (just above the 50 SMA)

Notes: Offset should have been sufficient cause for a good spike, but several layers of support prevented follow through. Look to exit at breakeven after the 100 SMA held.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1.22.2016

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 072016

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1_22_2016

1/22/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 53.0
Actual: 52.1
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 53.2
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 55.4
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 56.0
INDECISIVE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.0846
1st Peak @ 1.0842 – 0330:02 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.0851 – 0330:39 (1 min)
9 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.0861 – 0343 (13 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: French Report was a dull fill, so do not trade. This would have resulted in a 5 tick stop out if traded.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 1.27.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/27/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 110.2
Actual: 110.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3697
1st Peak @ 1.3707 – 0401 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3693 – 0408 (8 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3717 – 0421 (21 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.3692 – 0436 (36 min)
25 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3667 – 0607 (127 min)
50 ticks

Notes: The reading came in only 0.4 points above the forecast and continues to remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a small decisive and stable spike of 10 ticks that peaked early on the :02 bar as it reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3702 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture just a few ticks as it hovered around 1.3703 for most of the bar, then made a quick pop late in the bar up to 1.3707. With the narrow offset and price action stalling below the R2 Pivot, do not get too greedy on this one. After the peak, it reversed for 14 ticks in 7 min back to the 50 SMA. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks 13 min later after crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed slowly and deliberately, recapturing 25 ticks in 15 min, and another 25 ticks in the next 90 min.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 1.21.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/21/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 63.4
Actual: 61.7
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1.3536 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3526 – 0500:07 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3533 – 0500:23 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.3524 – 0500:49 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3539 – 0504 (4 min)
)))15 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3526 (below the S4 Mid Pivot and on the LOD) / 1.3519 (just below the S4 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3544 (just above the 200 SMA) / 1.3554 (in between the S1 Mid and S1 Pivots)

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 1.7 points. This caused a short move of 10 ticks initially that hit the S4 Mid Pivot, then a reversal of 7 ticks back to the S3 Pivot, followed by a pullback to extend the LOD by 2 ticks. This was an ideal setup of the Trap Trade. The inner long entry would have filled later in the :01 bar as the initial impulse hit the limit order without filling. You would have seen 2 ticks of heat followed by a 3 bar reversal that gave back 15 ticks, beyond the origin and nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. I placed a target on the 100 SMA and captured 10 ticks with ease. After the reversal, it continued to oscillate for a few cycles between the S4 Mid Pivot and the S3 Mid Pivot for about another 75 min, then it trended lower.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 312014

1/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 54.7
Actual: 56.3
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 54.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.1
Actual: 53.6
Previous Revision: -0.5 to 53.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3600 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3624 – 0329 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.3615 – 0330 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3642 – 0340 (12 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.3624 – 0347 (19 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1.6 points above the forecast to impress with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 0.5 points below the forecast with a moderate bearish previous report revision to cause a stable bullish reaction as the Manufacturing dominated. This resulted in a 24 tick long move that started on the 20 SMA and crossed the R3 Mid Pivot on the :29 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3607 with 3 ticks of slippage, then a target at or just above the R3 Mid Pivot would have been ideal for about 17+ ticks of profit. This would have filled on the :29 bar or the :31 bar. After the peak, it reversed only 9 ticks on the next bar, then after chopping sideways for a few min, it climbed to a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks to come up just short of the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks in the next 7 min back to the R3 Mid Pivot and 20 SMA.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 312014

1/23/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 47.6
Actual: 48.8
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 47.0
Services PMI
Forecast: 48.2
Actual: 48.6
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 47.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3573 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3603 – 0259 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 1.3586 – 0300 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3610 – 0314 (16 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 1.3597 – 0320 (22 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast to impress with a negligible downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.4 points above the forecast with a moderate upward revision. All of this served to cause a healthy and slightly volatile long spike of 30 ticks on the :59 bar that started on the 13 SMA, crossed the R2 Mid Pivot, and extended the HOD. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3581 with 5 ticks of slippage then seen hover between 5 and 13 ticks of profit for the rest of the bar after it burst immediately to hit the R2 Pivot, then backed off leaving a naked wick. A profit target of 15 ticks would have filled, but if you were looking for an exit later in the bar, try the 1.3593 area for about 12 ticks. This would have filled on the :59 or :01 bars. After the reversal was mostly achieved on the :59 bar, it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks on the :14 bar. Notice it never even touched the 13 or 20 SMAs until the post 2nd peak reversal fell for 13 ticks in 6 min. Then it traded sideways before heading into the German report.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 11.19.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Dec 242013

11/19/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 54.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3515
Trap Trade:
————
)))1st Peak @ 1.3506 – 0500:22 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3515 – 0503:04 (4 min)
)))9 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3493 – 0507 (7 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.3511 – 0551 (51 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, as it was oscillating sideways with all 3 major SMAs above. This caused a small short move, but was an ideal setup of the Trap Trade. Use 1.3515 as the anchor point as the center of gravity in the last several min. The R1 Mid Pivot at 1.3525 would be ideal for the inner tier, but nothing is located 15-20 ticks long, so just go with 1.3532. The PP Pivot on the short side would be ideal for the inner tier and the OOD at 1.3499 for the outer tier. A long order just below the PP Pivot at 1.3507 would have filled, then allowed a profit of about 7 ticks on the 13 SMA. Be careful of being too greedy with all 3 SMAs acting as resistance and falling. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 22 ticks in the next 3 min, then reversed for 18 ticks in the next 45 min back to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA.

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