6E 12-13 (1 Min) 10.15.2013

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 12-13 (1 Min) 10.15.2013
Nov 202013
 

6E 12-13 (1 Min)  10_15_2013

10/15/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 49.2
Actual: 52.8
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Started @ 1.3545
Trap Trade:
————
)))1st Peak @ 1.3556 – 0500:03 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3530 – 0501:22 (2 min)
)))-26 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 1.3501 – 0533 (33 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately impressive by beating the forecast, but was caught in a short trend that had begun just about 30 min before the report. This caused an initial long move that was quickly overcome by the sentiment to fall short in the later moments. This created a trickier situation for the setup of the Trap Trade. While the long move and subsequent reversal were ideal, the placement of the orders is not as easy. If you used 1.3550 as the anchor point, the long move would have missed a short order, and then filled the long entry at about 1.3540 and caused an eventual loss. An anchor point of 1.3545 would have been better, but only taken into account the movement of the :00 bar. This would have caused a short entry at 1.3555 to fill, then fall like a rock for 20+ ticks easily. After the first 2 bars, it never wanted to rebound, and methodically fell for almost 30 more ticks in the next 30 min to the S3 Pivot. Then it came back a few ticks and traded sideways.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 9.17.2013

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 12-13 (1 Min) 9.17.2013
Nov 202013
 

6E 12-13 (1 Min)  9_17_2013

9/17/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 45.3
Actual: 49.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Started @ 1.3358
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3377 – 0500:03 (1 min)
)))19 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3361 – 0504:00 (4 min)
)))-16 ticks

Pullback to 1.3370 – 0518 (18 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately impressive by beating the forecast. This caused a typical bullish reaction that was unsustainable, catering well to the Trap Trade. Using an anchor point of about 1.3358 as the average price action from the last few min, the long move would have filled the inside short entry at about 1.3368 and the 2nd tier at 1.3375 just above the R1 Pivot, while both long entries at 1.3348 and 1.3340 would have been left wanting. In this case the spike peaked at 1.3377 and would have filled both short entries for an average position of about 1.3372. Then I would use the R1 Mid Pivot at 1.3364 as a ideal target for 8 ticks of profit from the average position. It eventually came down to cross the 20 SMA, then popped back up above the R1 Mid Pivot to trade sideways.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.13.2013

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.13.2013
Nov 202013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  8_13_2013

8/13/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 40.3
Actual: 42.0
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.3298
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3312 – 0500:17 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3302 – 0507:58 (8 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Final Peak @ 1.3320 – 0521 (21 min)
)))22 ticks

Reversal to 1.3308 – 0525 (25 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly impressive by beating the forecast. This caused a typical bullish reaction, that catered well to the Trap Trade. Using an anchor point of about 1.3298 as the average price action from the last few min in between the PP Pivot and the S1 Mid Pivot, the long move would have filled the inside short entry at about 1.3308, and the long entry at the S1 Pivot at 1.3289 would have been left wanting. In this case the spike peaked at 1.3312 and would have given you a max of 5 ticks in the red, then after 8 min, as it fell to 1.3302 and the PP Pivot gave a target of 6 ticks. This is not the best setup, but it still would be better than the traditional JOBB approach. After the reversal, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 12 min crossing the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 12 ticks back to the 20 SMA. Then it calmed down and traded sideways.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.22.2013

 French Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.22.2013
Oct 242013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  8_22_2013

8/22/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 50.4
Actual: 49.7
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 47.7
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 48.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3353 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3335 – 0259 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3322 – 0305 (7 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1.3334 – 0312 (14 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint with a negligible bearish revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.6 points below the forecast with a small bullish revision. With the overall sentiment solidly bearish, the report provided a healthy short spike for 18 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3346 with 4 ticks of slippage then seen it hover below the 200 SMA at about 1.3340 for 12 sec. That would be a safe exit, but it would also be okay to wait it out for at least crossing the LOD for about 15 ticks. It kept stepping lower to a final peak of 31 ticks after 7 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 13 SMA, before trading sideways into the German report.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.22.2013

 German Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.22.2013
Oct 242013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  8_22_2013

8/22/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 52.0
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 50.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.7
Actual: 52.4
Previous Revision: -1.2 to 51.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3334 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3359 – 0329 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.3343 – 0334 (6 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3366 – 0402 (34 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.3348 – 0419 (51 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in nearly 1 point above the forecast to moderately impress and the services reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast to cause a healthy long spike that was unsustainable. This resulted in a 25 tick long spike on the :29 bar that started on the 13 SMA and crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot, nearly reaching the HOD. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3350 with abnormally high 12 ticks of slippage then had an opportunity to exit with about 5-7 ticks as it hovered before leaving the wick naked. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 16 ticks until the :34 bar, then it geared up for a 2nd peak that culminated on the :02 bar crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and HOD after the EU sector reports came out bullish. Then the final reversal gave back 18 ticks in 17 min back to eclipse the 50 SMA.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.16.2013

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.16.2013
Aug 092013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  7_16_2013

7/16/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 39.8
Actual: 36.3
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3075
1st Peak @ 1.3087 – 0501 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.3046 – 0501 (1 min)
-41 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 3.5 points worse than the forecast causing an indecisive reaction. This caused a 12 tick unsustainable long spike on the :01 bar that eclipsed the 200 / 100 SMAs, followed by an immediate reversal of 41 ticks in just 6 seconds that crossed the PP Pivot and extended the LOD. Then it retreated and left 17 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3083 with 4 ticks of slippage, then stopped at 1.3069 with 4 ticks of slippage on the quick reversal. We will trap trade this report next time due to the shifting trend. After the :01 bar, it trended slightly higher for the next 2 hrs, disregarding the news.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.25.2013

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.25.2013
Aug 092013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  7_25_2013

7/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 106.3
Actual: 106.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3231
1st Peak @ 1.3240 – 0401 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.3209 – 0411 (11 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3168 – 0545 (105 min)
72 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly matching to cause a relatively muted reaction. Even with a matching report, it was still a strong reading and rallied long, but was already trading at the HOD, so it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot, then fell for the reversal. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3237 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit around breakeven as it hovered before falling. Look to exit there with the hovering and recognizing the matching report. After the :01 bar, we saw a long developing large reversal that continued to step lower finding support at the PP Pivot, then the S1 Mid Pivot, and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot as it gained 72 ticks.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.24.2013

 German Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.24.2013
Aug 092013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  7_24_2013

7/24/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 48.6
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.9
Actual: 52.5
Previous Revision: -0.9 to 50.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3215 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3253 – 0331 (3 min)
38 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3258 – 0339 (11 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.3231 – 0411 (43 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1 point above the forecast to moderately impress and the services reading came in 1.6 points above the forecast to cause a strong long spike. This resulted in a 38 tick long spike over 3 bars that started on the 20 SMA and crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3231 with abnormally high 12 ticks of slippage then had an opportunity to exit with about 10 ticks at a minimum with ease. After the 1st peak, we saw a small correction, then it achieved 5 more ticks after 8 min. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.24.2013

 French Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.24.2013
Aug 092013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  7_24_2013

7/24/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 48.9
Actual: 49.8
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 48.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 47.7
Actual: 48.3
Previous Revision: +0.7 to 47.2
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3207 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3225 – 0259 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.3211 – 0309 (11 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points above the forecast to moderately impress with a negligible bullish revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.6 points above the forecast with a decent bullish revision. The report provided a healthy spike, but it was accompanied by unusually high slippage as it crossed the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot for 18 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3217 with 7 ticks of slippage then seen it struggle with the PP Pivot. If you moved your stop loss to about -6 ticks and brought in the profit target to 4-6 ticks, you would have walked away with a winner. The reversal reclaimed 14 ticks in the next 10 min, back to the 20 SMA. Then it popped up a few ticks and traded sideways in a tight range before the German report broke.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 06.06.2013

 ECB Min Bid Rate  Comments Off on 6E 06-13 (1 Min) 06.06.2013
Aug 092013
 

6E 06-13 (1 Min)  6_6_2013

6/6/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3116
1st Bar range: 1.3103 t0 1.3126 – 0746 (1 min)
23 ticks span

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.50% after the expected 25 BP cut last month. This resulted in erratic :45 and :46 bars. The volatility and wild swings that initiated about 17 sec before the :45 bar expired should have been cause to cancel the JOBB strategy with the control center tab, but if you did not you would have been stopped out with a 10 tick loss by filling short first, then cut out on the reversal. After the initial announcement, the market drifted up to the R2 Mid Pivot, then oscillated between the major SMAs and the R1 Pivot until the press conference. 2 min into the press conference saw a 20 tick short move that was quickly followed by a long reversal of 75 ticks in the next 18 min.