6E 12 12 (1 Min) 12.06.12

 ECB Min Bid Rate  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 12.06.12
Dec 062012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 12.06.12

12/6/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0245 HI time / 0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3060
1st Peak @ 1.3070 – 0246 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3086 – 0303 (18 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.3027 – 0356 (71 min)
59 ticks

Final Reversal to 1.2952 – 0727 (282 min)
134 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but highly unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. Now it is expected that the ECB may refrain from cutting rates any further after its pledge to buy government bonds lowered borrowing costs and boosted confidence that the Euro can emerge from recession next year. The initially spiked long for 10 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and S1 Pivot and peaking at the 100 SMA. After 18 min, it was able to fight through the 100 and 200 SMAs, then the PP Pivot for another 16 ticks. Then it traded sideways for several minutes until the gravity of the press conference commentary caused a selloff. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3067 with no slippage, but only given you a short opportunity to eke out a few ticks unless you were patient and waited on the 2nd Peak. If you had waited, you would only have been 2 ticks n the red briefly on the :47 bar. Mario Draghi gave a disappointing outlook, pledging more bond buying, prompting the bears to jump in. This caused a long term selloff, yielding 59 ticks quickly, then another 75 ticks in the following 3 hrs.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.23.12

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.23.12
Nov 232012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.23.12

11/23/2012 German IFO Business Climate (2300 HI time / 0400 EST)
Forecast: 99.6
Actual: 101.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2882 (2302)
1st Peak @ 1.2908 – 2304 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.2898 – 2305 (3 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2916 – 2308 (6 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.2893 – 2317 (17 min)
23 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.8 points above the forecast to impress, but was delayed 2 min in the release. This caused a 26 tick long spike on 2 bars (mostly on the :03 bar) that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the R1 Pivot, then peaked 1 tick below the R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have see the bracket appear, then waited on the report release. In this situation, you can either cancel the trade, or shift your bracket wider due to the delay and risk of a wrong direction fill. Expanding the bracket around the anchor to 8 ticks would have been safe and seen a long fill at about 1.2892 with no slippage. Look to exit with about 13 ticks near the top of the :01 bar. After the initial peak, it pulled back for 10 ticks, then ascended again for a 2nd peak of 34 total ticks to extend the HOD by 3 ticks. The reversal gave back 23 ticks relatively quickly in the next 9 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.22.12

 German Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.22.12
Nov 222012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.22.12

11/22/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2230 HI time / 0330 EST)
Forecast: 45.9
Actual: 46.8
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 46.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2848 (2228)
1st Peak @ 1.2855 – 2233 (5 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2871 – 2303 (35 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.2849 – 2334 (66 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in nearly 1 point above the forecast to mildly impress. This also broke on the evening before the US Thanksgiving holiday with considerable less market volume. This caused a dull 7 tick long spike over 5 bars that had to contend with the 100/200 SMAs a few ticks above the origin. The light volume, narrow report offset, and close SMAs all restrained the initial spike. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2851 with no slippage. Look to exit at the R2 Pivot for 3 ticks. After the 1st peak, it briefly reversed to touch the 100/200 SMAs, then ascended for a 2nd peak of 23 ticks 30 min later. Then it reversed nearly back to the origin for 22 ticks in 30 min. After that it trended upward.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

 French Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12
Nov 212012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

11/21/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2200 HI time / 0300 EST)
Forecast: 44.1
Actual: 44.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 43.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.2847 (2158)
1st Peak @ 1.2854 – 2159 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.2839 – 2211 (13 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in only 0.6 points above the forecast to slightly impress. This also broke on the evening before the US Thanksgiving holiday with considerable less market volume. This caused a dull 7 tick long spike over 1 bars that had to contend with all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot 2-7 ticks a few ticks above the origin. The light volume, narrow report offset, and close SMAs all restrained the initial spike. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2850 with no slippage if you did not cancel the order. Look to exit in between the 50 and 100 SMAs with 2-3 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed to eclipse the R1 Pivot by 2 ticks for 15 ticks 11 min later. After that it trended upward back to the 200 SMA and traded sideways awaiting the German report results.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.13.12

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.13.12
Nov 132012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.13.12

11/13/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0000 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: -9.9
Actual: -15.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2686
1st Peak @ 1.2665 – 0001 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.2690 – 0042 (42 min)
25 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly 6 points worse than the forecast to mildly disappoint. This caused a 21 tick short spike on 1 bar that crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD by 4 ticks and was slightly unsustainable, leaving 5 ticks of the tail naked. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2681 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit with about 12 ticks as it extended the LOD. After the spike, it retreated up, traded sideways for 30 min, then peaked at 1.2690 for 25 ticks.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.08.12

 ECB Min Bid Rate  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.08.12
Nov 082012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.08.12

11/8/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0245 HI time / 0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.2747
1st Peak @ 1.2753 – 0246 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2757 – 0257 (12 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.2721 – 0335 (50 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but highly unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially yawned and failed to move much with a spike of 6 ticks cut short by the S1 Pivot. After 10 min of bobbing between the 100 SMA and the area above the S1 Pivot, it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 10 ticks, before reversing slowly for 36 ticks in the next 40 min. With JOBB, your order would not have been filled with a 7 tick buffer, so cancel out. Mario Draghi did cite worsening economic conditions and a glim outlook, pledging to commence bond-buying but falling short of discussing a rate cut. After the start of the speech , the 6E bounced off of the S2 Pivot and rallied again to nick the PP Pivot for 43 ticks in 24 min. Overall a tame reaction with little to bring in the bears or the bulls this time.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.24.12

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.24.12
Oct 242012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.24.12

10/24/2012 German IFO Business Climate (2200 HI time / 0400 EDT)
Forecast: 101.5
Actual: 100.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2967
1st Peak @ 1.2942 – 2203 (3 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2928 – 2218 (18 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 1.2946 – 2239 (39 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.5 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a 25 tick short spike on 2 bars (mostly on the :01 bar) that crossed the S1 Pivot about halfway down, then bottomed as it extended the LOD by 21 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2960 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit with about 15 ticks near the bottom of the :01 bar. After the initial peak, it pulled back for 8 ticks, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 39 total ticks at the S2 Pivot 18 min after the report. The reversal gave back 18 ticks relatively quickly in the next 21 min to nick the 50 SMA. Then it chopped sideways between 1.2946 and the S2 Pivot for the next 2 hrs.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

 German Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12
Oct 232012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

10/23/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 48.1
Actual: 45.7
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 47.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3000 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2980 – 2129 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2964 – 2149 (21 min)
36 ticks

No Reversal due to German IFO report at 2200

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in 2.4 points below the forecast to disappoint. This caused a 20 tick short spike over 1 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot, bottoming 1 tick above the LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2995 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit somewhere between the PP Pivot and the LOD with about 12-15 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for a small 9 ticks, that could not reach the 13 SMA, then fell again for a 36 tick 2nd peak, extending the LOD by 15 ticks. Due to the German IFO Business report breaking bearishly at 2200, the reversal did not have a chance to materialize, so I wrote it off.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

 French Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12
Oct 232012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

10/23/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 43.9
Actual: 43.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 42.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.2998 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2992 – 2101 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.3002 – 2110 (12 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in nearly only 0.4 points below the forecast to slightly disappoint. This caused a dull 6 tick short spike over 3 bars that bottomed at the 200/100 SMAs. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2995 with no slippage. Move the stop loss to 1.3001 (2 tick above the short term hi and above 1.3000), then look to exit at the 200 SMA Pivot with 2-3 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 10 ticks (1 tick below the HOD) about 10 min later, then traded sideways to wait on the German report release.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.16.12

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.16.12
Oct 162012
 


6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.16.12

10/16/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (2300 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: -14.6
Actual: -11.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3014
1st Peak @ 1.3027 – 2301 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2991 – 2317 (17 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The reading came in over 3 points better than the forecast to mildly impress. This caused a 13 tick long spike on 1 bar that crossed no SMAs or Pivots, but extended the HOD by 7 ticks and was unsustainable, leaving 9 ticks of the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3018 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit with about 7 ticks as it peaks and backs off above the HOD. After the spike, the reversal took hold, yielding 36 ticks in 16 min, crossing all the major SMAs and the R2 Pivot. After

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