EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 7.24.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 272014

7/24/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 47.6
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 48.2
Services PMI
Forecast: 48.9
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3452
1st Peak @ 1.3458 – 0300:41 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.3447 – 0316 (16 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a small upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.5 points above the forecast with no revision. All of this conflicted and caused a tame long reaction as the services reading took the lead. We saw a long spike of 8 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed the 200 SMA 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3605 with 5 ticks of slippage then seen it hover around your fill point before falling later. Since this report looks for a 2nd peak very often and the news was very bearishly biased, it would be wise to be patient and wait for a fall to 1.3600 or 1.3598 with the R1 Mid Pivot. It achieved a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks 11 min later as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD. Then it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 17 min, crossing the 50 SMA as it headed into the German report release.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 7.24.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 272014

7/24/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.2
Actual: 52.9
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 52.0
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.7
Actual: 56.6
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 54.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3452
1st Peak @ 1.3466 – 0331 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3458 – 0332 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3477 – 0355 (25 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.3470 – 0402 (32 min)
7 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast with a small downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.9 points above the forecast with a negligible downward previous report revision to cause a long spike of 14 ticks that eclipsed the PP Mid Pivot and HOD, then retraced leaving half of the bar naked. We discouraged trading this report as the French report was conflicting, usually indicating the German report will be unsafe. This was a unique case where that premise was false. If you had used JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3458 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up and retrace to hover around the fill point for most of the bar. In this case, with the average 1st peak being 23 ticks, strong bullish result, and the big retrace we have a great opportunity for a long entry or stay in if using JOBB. Look to target 1.3470 at the R1 Pivot for about 10 – 12 ticks. It kept trickling higher and eventually the 2nd peak reached 1.3477 for 11 more ticks at the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 7 ticks in the next 7 min to the R1 Pivot.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 7.25.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Jul 272014

7/25/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 109.6
Actual: 108.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3467
1st Peak @ 1.3454 – 0400:44 (1 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3443 – 0408 (8 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.3454 – 0412 (12 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.6 points below the forecast to strongly disappoint. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and fell to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot, and extend the LOD on the :01 and :02 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3462 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall to 1.3459 and initially struggle with the S1 Pivot before it made a secondary push lower for another 3 ticks after 20 sec. Look to exit in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots for the conservative play, or wait for a 2nd peak with the strong bearish results. The 2nd peak achieved another 11 ticks in 7 more min as it tried to reach the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 11 ticks back to the S2 Mid Pivot in 4 min.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 8.7.2014

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/7/2014 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.15%
Actual: 0.15%
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION-NO FILL)
Started @ 1.3379 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar span 1.3376 – 1.3380 – 0746 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3361 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.3351 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3398 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.3408 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.15% and took no further significant action in the aftermath of the cut last month. This resulted in a yawner with no impulse whatsoever as the expectations were completely met. With no blast after 20 sec, cancel the order.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 8.12.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/12/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 18.2
Actual: 8.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3357 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3347 – 0500:19 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3352 – 0500:38 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3345 – 0503 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.3352 – 0512 (12 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.3341 – 0535 (35 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3347 – 0543 (43 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3347 (just above the S4 Mid Pivot) / 1.3337 (on the S4 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3366 (in between the 100 / 200 SMAs)/1.3375 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a large margin of 9.6 points. This caused a short move of 10 ticks initially in 19 sec that started on the LOD in the middle of a downtrend and fell to cross the S3 Pivot and nearly reach the S4 Mid Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with 0-1 ticks to spare depending upon your placement. Your would have had a quick opportunity at 38 sec or a later opportunity at 12 min to exit with about 4-5 ticks. In this case, since the day trend is a selloff, be careful about holding onto the position to wait for a longer term reversal. It could only rally to the 13/20 SMAs before falling again to enag another 6 ticks on the final peak. Then it reversed back to the S4 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 8.21.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/21/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 47.9
Actual: 46.5
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 47.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 51.1
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3263
1st Peak @ 1.3256 – 0300:00 (1 min)
-7 ticks

Reversal to 1.3265 – 0300:11 (1 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 1.3259 – 0302 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.3264 – 0306 (6 min)
5 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.4 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a small upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.8 points above the forecast with no revision. All of this conflicted and caused a slow whipsaw that fell 7 ticks to the 100 SMA then reversed 9 ticks after 11 sec. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3258 with 2 ticks of slippage then been stopped out at 1.3263 with no slippage for a 5 tick loss. Due to the conflicting results, it is likely going to keep swinging, so you can sell the highs and buy the lows for a few ticks. It pulled back 6 ticks, then reversed 5 ticks 4 min later. After that it traded sideways mostly just above the S1 Mid Pivot as it headed into the German report release.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 8.21.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/21/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.7
Actual: 52.0
Previous Revision: -0.5 to 52.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.5
Actual: 56.4
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 56.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3260
1st Peak @ 1.3274 – 0331:10 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3270 – 0333 (3 min)
-4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3279 – 0338 (8 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3272 – 0347 (17 min)
7 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.3 points above the forecast with a healthy downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 0.9 points above the forecast with a negligible upward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 14 ticks that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and rose to eclipse the PP Pivot and extend the HOD. We discouraged trading this report as the French report was conflicting, usually indicating the German report will be unsafe. This is the second unique case where that premise was false. If you had used JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3265 with 1 tick of slippage on the initial burst, then slowly grab another 9 ticks. Look to exit on the PP Pivot with about 8 ticks. After a small reversal of 4 ticks, It rallied higher for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed for 7 ticks in the next 9 min back to the PP Pivot. It traded sideways heading into the Eurozone report at 0400 which was surprisingly bearish.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 8.25.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Aug 302014

7/25/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.1
Actual: 106.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3191
1st Peak @ 1.3185 – 0400:13 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.3196 – 0405 (5 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.8 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint traders. This caused a short spike of 5 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and fell to reach the S2 Pivot, and extend the LOD on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3187 with no slippage, then seen it fall to hover between 0 and 2 ticks of profit. With the 2 previous attempts to penetrate below 1.3189 failing, the narrow offset, and the hovering, look to exit with about 1 tick of profit due to the likelihood of a reversal and minimal chance of a bigger short move. It reversed for 11 ticks in the next 4 min, reaching the 100 SMA.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Sep 242014

9/4/2014 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.15%
Actual: 0.05%
TRAP TRADE -OUTER TIER STOPPED
Started @ 1.3131 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3084 – 0745:06 (1 min)
)))-47 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3114 – 0745:07 (1 min)
)))30 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.3077 – 0745:17 (1 min)
)))-37 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3097 – 0745:27 (1 min)
)))20 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1.2996 – 0838 (53 min)
135 ticks

Reversal to 1.3032 – 0854 (69 min)
36 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3111 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 1.3100 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3151 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/ OOD) / 1.3162 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The ECB decided to cut the Minimum Bid Rate from 0.15% to 0.05% which was mostly unexpected and followed a cut of 0.10% in June. This time is was not priced in and caused a sharp drop after multiple whipsaw swings of 50 ticks in the first 20 sec. While the Trap Trade is a great setup for these scenarios, the settings were to tight and would have caused a stop out on both tiers. If you traded both, you would have filled long at 1.3111 and 1.3100, then stopped at 1.3090 for a loss of 31 total ticks if you used “average price” for the stop loss position. If you used last fill position, the stop would have been at 1.3085 and would have resulted in a 41 tick loss. If you just traded the outer tier, you would have lost 15 ticks with long fill at 1.3100 and stop at 1.3085. There had been chatter in the last several days about the ECB weighing a cut or other options to devalue, but it still was viewed as a long shot or unlikely course of action. Still to be safe, we should have just traded the outer tier on this one with the ramblings. It continued to fall precipitously after the first bar found support at the S4 Pivot to snag another 81 ticks in the next 52 min. The press conference added to this at 0830. Then we saw a reversal of 36 ticks in the next 16 min that crossed the 50 SMA. After that it traded sideways for 2 hrs, then continued to selloff as the market went into the afternoon. This is a perfect opportunity to jump on the wave and sell after the initial trade around 1.3080 – 1.3085. When there is a scenario like this, the selling will keep going for a long time. Trail the stop and be patient as you see up to 80+ ticks.

6E 12-14 (1 min) 9.16.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Oct 082014

9/16/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 5.2
Actual: 6.9
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.2954 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2950 – 0500:10 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2956 – 0500:17 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.2947 – 0502 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.2957 – 0532 (32 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2945 (in between the PP Pivot and 200 SMA) / 1.2938 (between the PP/ S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 1.2964 (on the R1 Pivot)/1.2972 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a small margin of only 1.7 points. This caused a dull short move of 4 ticks initially in 10 sec that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs then retreated 6 ticks a few sec later. This would have been well short of the inner long tier, so cancel the order. We see the quick reversal would have been ideal if only larger. After the initial reaction, it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, then reversed for 10 ticks in the next 30 min. After that it kept slowly climbing due to other factors.

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