EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 9.23.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 102014

9/23/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 47.1
Actual: 48.8
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 46.9
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 49.4
Previous Revision: -0.8 to 50.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.2856
1st Peak @ 1.2869 – 0301:29 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2861 – 0304 (4 min)
8 ticks

Double Top @ 1.2869 – 0309 (9 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.2861 – 0315 (15 min)
8 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.7 points above the forecast to impress the market with a moderate upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.8 points below the forecast with a large downward revision. All of this conflicted but caused a small stable long spike of 13 ticks over 2 bars that crossed the 200/100 SMAs near the origin and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2859 with no slippage then seen it hover between 1-2 ticks of profit for most of the bar. With the results conflicting and the R1 Pivot only 2 ticks higher and yet to be contested, it would be safe and wise to exit there. It continued to climb for 8 more ticks in the next bar, but that was not predicted or predictable. Then it reversed 8 ticks back to the R1 Pivot in 2 min. It repeated the move for a double top and reversal back to the R1 Pivot in 11 min, then traded sideways into the German report release.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 9.23.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 102014

9/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.3
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: -0.6 to 51.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 55.4
Previous Revision: -1.5 to 54.9
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.2865
1st Peak @ 1.2859 – 0330:00 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.2872 – 0330:59 (1 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 1.2866 – 0335 (5 min)
6 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.0 points below the forecast with a healthy downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 0.8 points above the forecast with a large downward previous report revision. This all conflicted to cause a small short spike that reversed slowly but strongly. It fell 6 ticks immediately to the 100/200 SMAs, then reversed 13 ticks mostly on the back end of the :31 bar to the HOD. We discouraged trading this report as the French report was conflicting, usually indicating the German report will be unsafe. If you had used JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2860 with 1 tick of slippage on the initial move, then seen it hover 0-2 ticks in the red. Look to exit with 1 tick loss near breakeven before the reversal. After the reversal, it pulled back 6 ticks to the 13 SMA in 4 min. It chopped sideways until the Eurozone report at the bottom of the hour caused a long move followed by a reversal.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 9.24.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Oct 102014

9/24/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 105.9
Actual: 104.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.2867
1st Peak @ 1.2854 – 0400:51 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2863 – 0403 (3 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 1.2855 – 0410 (10 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.2866 – 0434 (34 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint traders. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks that started just above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs, the S1 Pivot and OOD on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.2863 with no slippage, then seen it fall to hover near the OOD allowing 7-8 ticks to be captured. It reversed quickly in the next 2 bars for 9 ticks back to the 13 SMA. Then it pulled back 8 ticks to the OOD 7 min later before a reversal of 11 ticks back to the origin in 24 min. After that it fell but the length of time after the report and slow drop indicate other market factors were likely the cause.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.2.2014

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Oct 242014

10/2/2014 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.05%
Actual: 0.05%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.2647 – shift to 1.2643 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2651 – 0745:05 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2642 – 0746:01 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1.2635 – 0748 (3 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 1.2649 – 0750 (5 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.2633 – 0806 (21 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2624 (just below the OOD) / 1.2613 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.2663 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.2671 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: After the surprise cut last month, the ECB decided to leave rates pat and did little to excite the market. This resulted in a minimal whipsaw that rose 8 ticks in the midst of all 3 major SMAs, then retreated 9 ticks after 1 min. With the movement well short of the inner tiers, cancel the order. Of note, the initial setting of the anchor point would have been at 1.2647, then we saw movement short, so bias your tiers about 4 ticks lower. After the initial reversal it fell another 7 ticks in the next min. Then it pulled back 14 ticks while crossing the SMAs. After that it trickled lower and traded sideways below the SMAs as it headed into the press conference at 0830.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.14.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Nov 032014

10/14/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2
Actual: -3.6
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.2693 – shift to 1.2687 after downward drift
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2679 – 0500:20 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2683 – 0500:33 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.2674 – 0500:56 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.2682 – 0506 (6 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2645 – 0554 (54 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.2666 – 0629 (89 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2677 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.2667 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.2696 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)/1.2704 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by modest margin of 3.8 points but was negative for the first time in 2 yrs. Your anchor point at 45 sec early would have setup at 1.2693, but it drifted down and hovered around the PP Pivot at 1.2687, so bias your orders about 5-6 ticks lower. As the report broke it did a head fake long for 5 ticks, then trickled lower to fall 8 ticks in 20 sec. Cancel the order due to the slow approach and falling short of the inner long entry by 2 ticks. It continued to step lower eventually falling 42 total ticks on the final peak after 54 min.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.23.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 112014

10/23/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 47.3
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 48.2
Actual: 48.1
Previous Revision: -1.0 to 49.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2641
1st Peak @ 1.2625 – 0302:32 (3 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.2630 – 0304 (4 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2617 – 0307 (7 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.2634 – 0315 (15 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.3 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with no revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in matching the forecast with a large downward revision. All of this was consistently bearish to cause a stable short spike of 16 ticks over 3 bars that started on the 13 SMA and fell to cross the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2636 with about 2 ticks of slippage then seen it slowly trickle lower until it reached the S1 Pivot where it hovered. Look to exit at about 1.2628 with 8 ticks. After a reversal of 5 ticks, it fell another 8 ticks to reach the S2 Mid Pivot after 3 more min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 8 min to cross the S1 Pivot and 20 SMA. After that it drifted lower and traded sideways as it headed into the release of the German report at the bottom of the hour.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.23.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 122014

10/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 51.8
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 49.9
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 54.8
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 55.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2625
1st Peak @ 1.2652 – 0331:40 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.2644 – 0333 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2659 – 0335 (5 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.2636 – 0342 (12 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 1.2651 – 0353 (23 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast with a mild downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in nearly matching the forecast with a mild upward previous report revision. With most of the news differing little from the forecast, the bullish manufacturing reading drove the long reaction. It started on the 13 SMA and rose 22 ticks immediately as it crossed the 100/200 SMAs and hit the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2634 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover in between the 100/200 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot for 6 sec. This would have been an ideal place to exit with 11 ticks with the strong resistance. After the hovering it backed off 10 ticks in 30 sec, then rebounded to snag another 5 ticks on the :32 bar. Then it reversed 8 ticks on the :33 bar before climbing for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks 2 min later. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 7 min as it crossed the 100 SMA. After that it pulled back 15 ticks to the OOD and traded sideways as it headed into the release of the Eurozone report at the bottom of the hour.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.27.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Nov 122014

10/27/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 104.6
Actual: 103.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.2699
1st Peak @ 1.2689 – 0500:13 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.2711 – 0503 (3 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2687 – 0533 (33 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.2694 – 0554 (54 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint traders. This caused a bizarre overall reaction that had a :59 bar climb, :00 bar fall, then the report caused a 10 tick short move that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.2694 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall to hover around 1.2692 midway through the :31 bar. Look to exit there for about 2 ticks since it crossed heavy support. After the peak, it reversed strongly for 22 ticks in 2 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of only 2 more ticks after 30 min. It continued to slowly trend lower in the aftermath, but as it was a steady and slow paced down trend, it is not likely due to the IFO report.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 11.6.2014

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/6/2014 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.05%
Actual: 0.05%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.2528 – shift to 1.2524
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2515 – 0744:52 (0 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2533 – 0745:07 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.2513 – 0748 (3 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2527 – 0752 (7 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2506 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 1.2494 (just below the R1 Mid pivot)
Short entries – 1.2543 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.2554 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The ECB decided to leave rates pat and wait to see the longer term effects of the stimulus. The initial position of the anchor point would have shifted lower about 4 ticks to the area of the 100 SMA to bias your orders lower. Then we saw a premature short spike of 9 ticks 8 sec early followed by a 18 tick reversal 15 sec later to the area of the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 20 ticks in the next 2 min to match the premature spike low. With the movement well short of the inner tiers, cancel the order. After the Pullback, it reversed 14 ticks in the next 4 min to cross the 100 SMA. After that it trickled lower and traded sideways around the SMAs as it headed into the press conference at 0830.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 11.18.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/18/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.9
Actual: 11.5
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL (BREAKEVEN EXIT)
Anchor Point @ 1.2517 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2535 – 0500:08 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2529 – 0500:14 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.2543 – 0501:45 (2 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.2517 – 0511 (11 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.2541 – 0519 (19 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.2515 – 0531 (31 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2507 (just above the 50 SMA) / 1.2498 (just below the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 1.2526 (No SMA/Pivot near)/1.2534 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a margin of 10.6 points. This caused a more decisive long spike than we usually see for 18 ticks initially that found resistance at the R2 Pivot. This would have filled your inner and outer short entries making an average short position at about 1.2530. You would have only seen a 6 tick reversal allow an exit near breakeven as the bar was expiring. It would have been safe to exit here with the strong reaction. If you stayed in and waited, you would have seen 13 ticks of heat after 2 min before it collapsed back to the 13 SMA in the next 3 min for 26 ticks allowing about 7 ticks (14 total ticks) to be captured. Again we can count on the delayed reversal even after taking heat. After the reversal, it pulled back 24 ticks to fall just short of a double top after 8 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 12 min to the 50 SMA.

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