EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.7.2015

Jan 112015

1/7/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1861
1st Peak @ 1.1855 – 0500:00 (1 min)
-6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1880 – 0500:19 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 1.1855 – 0501:30 (2 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.1884 – 0510 (10 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 1.1855 – 0536 (36 min)
29 ticks

Notes: The broader reading fell short of the forecast by 0.2% while the core reading exceeded the forecast by 0.2%. As the broader reading almost always comes in matching and the instance of conflict between the results is even rarer, we saw a whipsaw. It fell 6 ticks immediately to the S2 Pivot followed by a 21 tick reversal in the next 2 sec, then another 4 ticks in 17 sec to cross the 50/100 SMAs and reach the 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.1856 with no slippage then stopped you out at 1.1865 instantly for a 9 tick loss including 1 tick of slippage. It continued to chop up and down as the period between the his and lows grew between swings. Then after about an hour it started to drift lower. As the first time we made this report ready for primetime, it resulted in a loss, but the cause was valid with the results.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.22.2015

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Jan 282015

1/22/2015 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.05%
Actual: 0.05%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Started @ 1.1632 – shift to 1.1620
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.1593 – 0744:55 (0 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.1640 – 0744:59 (0 min)
)))47 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.1602 – 0745:18 (1 min)
)))-38 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.668 – 0745:33 (1 min)
)))66 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.1627 – 0745:43 (1 min)
)))-41 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.1600 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.1590 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.1640 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.1650 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Wow, perfect report for the trap trade! The ECB decided to leave rates at record lows and left everyone in suspense with a pending policy announcement in 45 min. The initial position of the anchor point would have shifted lower about 10-12 ticks on a slow but methodical drift lower between 0744:15 and 0744:50. So bias your tiers about 10-12 ticks lower from the original placement. The chaos began prematurely at about 52 sec with a choppy short move in 3 sec for 27 ticks that crossed the PP Pivot and OOD, then reversed in 4 sec for 47 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry at 1.1600 with 7 ticks to spare (or both entries if not adjusted), then reversed to hit your opposite inner short entry for a 40 tick profit. It continued to whipsaw such that if left alone the outer short entry would have filled at 0745:33 at 1.1650 and stopped at 1.1665. This is why it is best to cancel the unfilled orders after the initial move, or if unfilled on a dull move. Nearly all of the volatility was gone after the :46 bar.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.20.2015

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jan 282015

1/20/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 40.1
Actual: 48.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.1612
1st Peak @ 1.1621 – 0500:09 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1600 – 0504 (4 min)
21 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.1593 – 0515 (15 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 8.3 points better than the forecast causing a stable long spike of only 9 ticks in 9 sec. It was prudent to have a 5 tick bracket as there was a 4 tick dip at the top of the hour before the spike that would have been contained. With JOBB, you long order would have filled at 1.1617 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with 3 ticks at 1.1620 where it hovered for 15 sec in the middle of the bar just short of the PP Pivot. Then it fell for a 21 tick reversal in 3 min to the S1 Pivot and another 7 ticks in the next 11 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA. We shifted back to the Bracket routine for this report as we have been seeing more sustained reactions. But we still see strong and large reversals after the peak that are great trades too. After the reversal, it climbed for a double top in 27 min then fell again to end up lower in the aftermath.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.23.2015

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 282015

1/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 48.1
Actual: 49.5
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 47.5
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.9
Actual: 49.5
Previous Revision: +0.8 to 50.6
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.1351
1st Peak @ 1.1354 – 0300:04 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 1.1350 – 0302 (2 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1360 – 0305 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1343 – 0330 (30 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.4 points above the forecast to impress the market with a mild downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.4 pts below the forecast with a moderate upward revision. This caused an initial dull reaction of only 3 ticks as the news was conflicting and nearly equally offsetting. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 1.1354 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with 1 tick loss on the dull report as it hovered for 24 sec. Then it reversed 4 ticks in the next bar before climbing for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in the next 3 min. Then it fell 17 ticks in 25 min to cross the 100 SMA just before the release of the German Report. Given the conflicting data it would be prudent to sit out the German report as it has a strong possibility of a similar result.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.23.2015

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 282015

1/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 51.8
Actual: 51.0
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.6
Actual: 52.7
Previous Revision: +0.7 to 51.6
INDECISIVE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.1347
1st Peak @ 1.1339 – 0330:01 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1350 – 0330:14 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1262 – 0357 (27 min)
85 ticks

Reversal to 1.1295 – 0404 (34 min)
33 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1223 – 0510 (100 min)
124 ticks

Reversal to 1.1250 – 0536 (126 min)
27 ticks

Notes: As the French report was conflicting and resulted in a dull reaction, we discouraged trading this report. The manufacturing reading came in 0.8 points below the forecast with no revision on the previous report while the services reading came in matching with a moderate upward previous report revision. This caused a whipsaw that fell 8 ticks then reversed 11 ticks in 14 sec. There was also a trigger to cancel as the market was choppy in the waning seconds before the report. If traded, with JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.1341 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it bob around your fill point before reversing and stopping you out for a 5 tick loss. After the reversal, the bears took over still reeling from the ECB action yesterday to drive it lower for another 77 ticks on a 2nd peak to cross the S1 Pivot in 26 min. Then it reversed 33 ticks in 7 min to the 20 SMA / S1 Pivot before falling for a final peak of 39 more ticks in the next hour as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 26 min.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.26.2015

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/26/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 106.7
Actual: 106.7
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1242
1st Peak @ 1.1236 – 0400:08 (1 min)
-6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1246 – 0400:13 (1 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 1.1229 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.1268 – 0412 (12 min)
39 ticks

Notes: The reading came in exactly matching the forecast to cause indecision. This resulted in a 6 tick short spike in 8 sec that started above the PP Pivot and fell to cross it then snapped back to reverse 10 ticks before pulling back 17 ticks in 1 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.1237 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped out for an 8 tick loss 5 sec later. After that it fell and chopped between the PP Pivot / 50 SMA and 100 SMA before reversing 39 ticks 10 min later to extend the HOD.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.30.2015

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: -0.5%
Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.7%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1314
1st Peak @ 1.1330 – 0500:03 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.1318 – 0502 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd peak @ 1.1335 – 0505 (5 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.1323 – 0508 (10 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The broader reading fell short of the forecast by 0.1% while the core reading matched the forecast. It climbed 16 ticks immediately to cross the PP Pivot / 50 SMA and hit the OOD. Then it backed off 10 ticks and hovered before ascending again. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 1.1322 with 3 ticks of slippage. A profit target of 8 or less would have filled. Otherwise set a profit target just above the PP Pivot at 1.1325 or 26 for 3-4 ticks. It continued to climb for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks before reversing 12 ticks in 3 min.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 2.17.2015

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 162015

2/17/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 55.4
Actual: 53.0
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1390
1st Bar Span: 1.1386 – 1.1394
+/- 4 ticks

1st Peak @ 1.1380 – 0503 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.1404 – 0521 (21 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 2.4 points below the forecast causing an unstable small whipsaw in the first 23 sec to bounce around but fortunately not trip the bracket as it did not breach 5 ticks from the origin until the :02 bar started. With JOBB, cancel the order on the dull and unstable move. It settled down to fall 10 ticks for a 1st peak on the :03 bar. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 18 min to reach the HOD.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 2.20.2015

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 162015

2/20/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 49.7
Actual: 47.7
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 49.2
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.9
Actual: 53.4
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.4
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1359
1st Peak @ 1.1355 – 0300:02 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.1363 – 0302 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1319 – 0316 (16 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.1340 – 0329 (29 min)
21 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 2.0 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a mild downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 3.5 pts above the forecast with a negligible downward revision. This caused an initial dull / indecisive reaction of only 4 ticks as the news was conflicting and nearly equally offsetting. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.1356 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with 2-3 ticks loss as it hovered before it continued to reverse for another 5 ticks into the :02 bar. Then it fell for a large 2nd peak for 36 more ticks in 14 min to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. After that it reversed 21 ticks to the 50 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot in 13 min just before the release of the German report.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 2.20.2015

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 162015

2/20/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 51.8
Actual: 50.9
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 50.9
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 55.5
Previous Revision: +1.3 to 54.0
DULL REACTION (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.1338
1st Peak @ 1.1332 – 0330:07 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1342 – 0335 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1307 – 0412 (42 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1.1323 – 0419 (49 min)
16 ticks

Notes: As the French report was conflicting and resulted in a dull / indeciaive reaction, we discouraged trading this report. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points below the forecast with a negligible revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast with a moderate upward previous report revision. This caused a dull reaction that fell 6 ticks in 7 sec then pulled up to hover around 2 ticks above the low. Then it continued to reverse for a total of 10 ticks in the next 5 min to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways for 15 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 25 more ticks in 40 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 16 ticks to the 20 SMA in 7 min.

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