EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 2.23.2015

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Mar 182015

2/23/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 107.4
Actual: 106.8
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1346
1st Peak @ 1.1326 – 0400:58 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.1338 – 0407 (7 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1317 – 0408 (8 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.1335 – 0414 (14 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.6 pts below the forecast to disappoint the market. This resulted in a 20 tick short spike that trickled down over the entire :01 bar as it started on the 50 SMA and fell to extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.1341 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall for a nice profit with no support barrier encountered. Be patient and wait for hovering. This would have allowed 10-14 ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed 12 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks 1 min later. Then it reversed 18 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA. After that it traded sideways and slowly drifted lower.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 3.2.2015

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Mar 252015

3/2/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: -0.5%
Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 1.1219
1st Bar Span – 1.1215 to 1.1220 (1 min)
-4 to +1 ticks

Notes: The broader reading fell short of the forecast by 0.2% while the core reading matched the forecast. This caused a dull but choppy reaction with the movement all contained by the 5 tick bracket. Cancel the order after 10 sec or earlier with no fill and seeing the small frenetic activity. It did not have a longer term reaction either as it traded sideways on the 20 SMA for about an hour.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 3.5.2015

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Mar 262015

3/5/2015 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.05%
Actual: 0.05%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1059
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.1050 – 0745:00 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.1063 – 0745:59 (1 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.1057 – 0749 (4 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1078 – 0808 (23 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 1.1062 – 0828 (43 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.1041(just below the S1 Pivot) / 1.1027 (On the S2 Mid Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 1.1079 (just below the OOD) / 1.1089 (in between the PP Pivot / HOD)

Notes: The ECB has impending stimulus set to begin shortly, so most of the questions centered around the terms and details which will be released in the press conference. This caused a short move of 9 ticks that started just above the 13 SMA and fell to cross the 50 /100 SMAs immediately then reverse. This would have fallen short of the inner long entry and was too fleeting to manually capture, so cancel the order. It reversed a total of 13 ticks in the rest of the bar. Then it pulled back 6 ticks in 3 min to the 20 SMA before reversing 21 ticks in 19 min as it eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in 20 min to the 50 SMA before the press conference started and chaos ensued.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 3.17.2015

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 262015

3/17/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 58.9
Actual: 54.8
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0621
1st Peak @ 1.0609 – 0600:03 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0627 – 0602 (2 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 1.0612 – 0611 (11 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 4.1 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 12 ticks in 3 sec that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the 50 SMA before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.0616 with no slippage, then after it fell, look to exit at 10613 or 12 with 3-4 ticks where it hovered for 16 sec just below the R1 Mid Pivot. It reversed back to the origin later in the bar, then another 6 ticks to the HOD on the next bar. This is a unique report that is kind of between the trap trade and bracket trade. Here we see the Trap Trade would have probably worked out for a few more ticks, but other reports would have fared better as bracket trades. After the reversal, it pulled back 15 ticks in 11 min to the R1 Mid Pivot / 50 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 3.24.2015

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 052015

3/24/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 48.9
Actual: 48.2
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 47.6
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.1
Actual: 52.8
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0965
1st Peak @ 1.0961 – 0400:04 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.0967 – 0400:07 (1 min)
6 ticks

Pullback to 1.0961 – 0400:27 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.0976 – 0402 (2 min)
15 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.0993 – 0425 (25 min)
32 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint the market with a negligible upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in only 0.3 pts below the forecast with no previous revision. This caused an initial dull / indecisive reaction of only 4 ticks followed by a quick 6 tick reversal as it went against the rally in place before the news. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.0962 with no slippage, then reversed to hit the tight stop to the tick for a loss of 5 ticks. Then it pulled back 6 ticks at 27 sec to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and 13 SMA before reversing 15 ticks in 1 min. Then it continued to climb another 17 ticks in the next 23 min to eclipse the R1 Pivot. This is the third month with conflicting results to cause a poor setup, the small bracket and tight stop have kept the losses in check.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 3.24.2015

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 052015

3/24/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 52.4
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 51.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 55.3
Previous Revision: -0.8 to 54.7
DULL REACTION (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.0985
1st Peak @ 1.0995 – 0430:31 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.0989 – 0432 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1012 – 0438 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.0984 – 0456 (26 min)
28 ticks

Notes: As the French report was conflicting and resulted in a dull / indecisive reaction, we discouraged trading this report, but it would have been safe. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points above the forecast with a negligible revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 0.3 points above the forecast with a healthy downward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks in 31 sec that started on the 13 SMA and climbed to eclipse the HOD. This would have filled the long entry at 1.0990 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed an exit with 4 ticks where it hovered. Then it reversed 6 ticks in the next min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 17 more ticks in 6 min as it crossed the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 28 ticks in 18 min to the R1 Pivot / 50 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 3.25.2015

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Apr 052015

3/25/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 107.4
Actual: 107.9
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 1.0976
1st Bar Span 1.0973 to 1.0979 – 0501 (1 min)
+/-3 ticks

1st peak @ 1.0955 – 0504 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0973 – 0508 (8 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.5 pts above the forecast to mildly impact the market with a dull reaction that only strayed 3 ticks away from the anchor point on either side. Fortunately the 4 tick bracket would have contained the dull movement and allowed a safe cancel of the strategy with no fill. After the :01 bar, it fell 21 ticks in 3 min to eclipse the 100 SMA / PP Pivot. Then it reversed 18 ticks in 4 min to the 50 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Apr 052015

3/31/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: -0.3%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.7%
DULL REACTION – NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.0733
1st Peak @ 1.0740 – 0500:54 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.0732 – 0502 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd peak @ 1.0745 – 0509 (9 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0735 – 0516 (16 min)
10 ticks

Notes: The broader reading exceeded the forecast by 0.2% while the core reading matched the forecast with an upward previous revision. This caused a dull but choppy reaction with the movement all contained by the 5 tick bracket initially. It took nearly 40 sec to breach 5 ticks on the long move so cancel the order after 10 sec with no fill and seeing the small frenetic activity. It eventually hit 7 ticks on the 13 SMA then reversed 8 ticks on the next bar. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 7 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA before reversing 10 ticks in 7 min.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.15.2015

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/15/2015 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.05%
Actual: 0.05%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.0606
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.0610 – 0745:05 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.0589 – 0753:10 (9 min)
)))-21 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.0586(just above the S1 Pivot) / 1.0578 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 1.0625 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.0636 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The ECB has implemented stimulus and is waiting on the effects to set in. This caused a dull reaction of only 4 ticks long in 5 sec followed by a 21 tick reversal to matched the low from 0700. Cancel the Trap Trade due to the small move. Then it chopped sideways in a tight range waiting on the press conference at 0830.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.21.2015

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/21/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 53.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0690
1st Peak @ 1.0699 – 0500:08 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0672 – 0507 (7 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0704 – 0531 (31 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0682 – 0618 (78 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 2.3 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained long spike of 9 ticks in 8 sec that crossed the S2 Pivot / 200 SMA before reversing. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 1.0696 with 1 tick of slippage, then hovered 1-3 ticks in profit. Look to exit on the hovering or reverse the order as we know this report has a tendency to reverse quickly and strongly. Sure enough, it reversed 18 ticks in the next 6 min. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 24 min to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 47 min after crossing the 200 SMA.

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