EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.23.2015

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 48.4
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 48.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.5
Actual: 50.8
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 52.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0697
1st Peak @ 1.0679 – 0303:40 (4 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.0690 – 0307 (7 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0676 – 0311 (11 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0691 – 0321 (21 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.0 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint the market with a moderate upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.7 pts below the forecast with a moderate downward previous revision. This caused a slow developing short spike of 18 ticks in nearly 4 min to reach the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.0693 with 1 tick of slippage, then it would have trickled a little lower and hovered to allow a quick exit with 2 ticks. With the results consistently disappointing, it would be safe to wait for a longer term reaction as the average yield on this report is 17 ticks. It continued to fall for the next 3 min to allow an exit at 1.0680 for 13 ticks. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 3 min to the 13 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 4 min. After that it reversed 15 ticks in 10 min to the 50 SMA as it headed into the German report.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.23.2015

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/23/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 53.1
Actual: 51.9
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 52.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 55.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0695
1st Peak @ 1.0672 – 0330:30 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0688 – 0335 (5 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 1.0675 – 0340 (10 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0697 – 0351 (21 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast with a mild upward revision on the previous report while the services reading also came in 1.2 points below the forecast with a negligible previous report revision. With nearly all of the news bearish, we saw a decisive large short spike for 23 ticks that crossed the 50 SMA, S3 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0689 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover just below the old LOD position. Look to exit there with about 14 ticks. After that it reversed 16 ticks in 4 min to the 50 SMA before pulling back 13 ticks to the old LOD position in 5 min. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 11 min after crossing the 100 SMA and nearly reaching the S2 Pivot.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.24.2015

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Apr 272015

4/24/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.5
Actual: 108.6
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0883
1st Peak @ 1.0891 – 0400:11 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0880 – 0400:14 (1 min)
-11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0900 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.0883 – 0413 (13 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The reading came nearly matching with only 0.1 pt offset. This resulted in an indecisive reaction that spiked long for 8 ticks in 11 sec then reversed 11 ticks 3 sec later. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.0988 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it show 3 ticks of profit for 3 sec before falling to the stop for an 8 tick loss with no slippage. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks on the next bar to reach the R2 Mid Pivot before reversing 17 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

May 022015

4/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Started @ 1.1215
1st Peak @ 1.1227 – 0501:17 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1189 – 0510 (10 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 1.1218 – 0523 (23 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.1191 – 0530 (16 min)
10 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading matched the forecast with no previous revisions. This caused a slow developing long spike of 12 ticks that reached the 50 SMA after 77 sec. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you should have cancelled the order after 10-15 sec with no fill and the matching results to be safe. In this case leaving the orders on the chart would have worked out, but that is normally not the case. After the peak, it reversed 38 ticks in 8 min after crossing the 100 SMA. This would have been a very safe reversal trade due to the 12 tick initial move, the 50 SMA, and the matching results. After that it pulled back 29 ticks in 13 min to the 100 SMA before reversing 27 ticks in 7 min.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 5.19.2015

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

May 232015

Caption for 5/19:
5/19/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 48.8
Actual: 41.9
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1200
1st Peak @ 1.1185 – 0500:02 (1 min)
-15 ticks

Reversal to 1.1200 – 0503 (3 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 1.1192 – 0505 (5 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1214 – 0511 (11 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 1.1186 – 0530 (30 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly 6 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 15 ticks in 2 sec that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reached the S3 Mid Pivot before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.1193 with 2 ticks of slippage, then hit the bottom and reversed briefly. Then it fell and hovered to allow 3-4 ticks to be captured on the 50 SMA. After that it reversed to the origin in 2 min before pulling back 8 ticks in 2 min. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 6 min before pulling back 28 ticks in 19 min to cross the 100 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 5.21.2015

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 232015

5/21/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 49.3
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 48.0
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.0
Actual: 51.6
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 51.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1105
1st Peak @ 1.1121 – 0300:16 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.1107 – 0303 (3 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1148 – 0326 (26 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.1134 – 0328 (28 min)
14 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast to mildly impress the market with a moderate downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.4 pts below the forecast with a moderate upward previous revision. This caused a long spike of 16 ticks in 16 sec to cross the 100 / 200 SMAs. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 1.1108 with no slippage, then it peaked and hovered at about 1.1117 to allow 9-10 ticks to be captured just below the 200 SMA. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 2 min before stepping higher for a final peak of 27 ticks in 23 min, crossing the S3 Pivot and extending the HOD. After that it reversed 14 ticks in 2 min as it headed into the German report.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 5.21.2015

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 242015

5/21/2015 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual: 51.4
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 52.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 52.9
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 54.0
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1130
1st Peak @ 1.1112 – 0330:59 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.1121 – 0332 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1109 – 0334 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.1163 – 0346 (16 min)
54 ticks

Pullback to 1.1135 – 0358 (28 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.5 points below the forecast with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading also came in 1.0 points below the forecast with a moderate downward previous report revision. With nearly all of the news bearish, we saw a decisive short spike for 18 ticks that crossed the 50 / 200 SMAs and reached the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.1125 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall and hover at about 1.1116 in between the SMAs to allow about 9 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 9 ticks in the next min to the 50 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 2 min. After that it reversed 54 ticks in 12 min before pulling back 28 ticks in 12 min to the 50 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 5.22.2015

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

May 242015

5/22/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.3
Actual: 108.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1161
1st Peak @ 1.1178 – 0400:25 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.1169 – 0402 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1180 – 0403 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.1153 – 0415 (15 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 1.1172 – 0433 (33 min)
19 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly matching with 0.2 pts above the forecast to mildly impress the market. This resulted in a 17 tick long spike in 25 sec that started on the 100 /50 SMAs and climbed to extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.1165 with no slippage, then seen it rise to hover at the HOD for a few sec then climb another 4 ticks and hover again. This would have allowed 8-12 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 9 ticks in 1 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 12 min to cross the 200 SMA before pulling back 19 ticks in 18 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6.16.2015

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jul 022015

6/16/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 37.5
Actual: 31.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1274
1st Peak @ 1.1262 – 0500:05 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1277 – 0503 (3 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 1.1268 – 0507 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1285 – 0510 (10 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1.1269 – 0528 (28 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 6 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 12 ticks in 5 sec that nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.1268 with 1 tick of slippage, then hit the bottom and backed off to hover between breakeven and 3 ticks profit. As this report often reverses quickly, it is advised to exit or reverse the trade at the first sign of hovering. So look to reverse at about 1.1266 with 2 ticks then exit above the PP Pivot at about 1.1276 for 10 more ticks on the reversal. After that it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to the old LOD position before reversing 17 ticks in 3 min to the 50 SMA. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in 18 min as it used the 50 SMA as resistance.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6.23.2015

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 022015

6/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 50.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 49.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.5
Actual: 54.1
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 52.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1276
1st Peak @ 1.1288 – 0300:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1272 – 0303 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1291 – 0316 (16 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.1274 – 0322 (22 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.4 points above the forecast to mildly impress the market with a negligible revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.6 pts above the forecast with a moderate upward previous revision. This caused a long spike of 12 ticks immediately to cross the 100 / 200 SMAs near the origin and breach the upper limit of the trend channel established 30+ min before the report. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 1.1283 with 4 ticks of slippage, then it peaked and hovered at about 1.1286 to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 2 min before stepping higher for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 13 min at the trend channel upper boundary. After that it reversed 17 ticks to the 50 SMA in 6 min, then recovered a bit as it headed into the German report.

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