ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016
Feb 282016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_19_2016ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_19_2016

2/19/2016 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 166’11
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’28 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 166’06 – 0831:00 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 165’23 – 0839 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 166’12 – 0855 (25 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 166’05 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entry – 166’18 (on the OOD)

Expected Fill: 166’05 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: stopped at 166’00 for 5 tick loss or if stop disabled – 166’05 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: First reaction we have seen over 9 ticks since the ZB started reacting to this report. The stop may have been disabled do to the speed of the spike. If so, trust the reversal and add a 2nd long position at 165’29 where it hovered before reversing. Then exit at 166’05 where it hovered again. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks before reversing to eclipse the 50 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016

 FOMC Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016
Feb 272016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_17_2016

2/17/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 164’10
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 164’15 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 164’09 – 1401:44 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Pullback to 164’16 – 1404 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 163’31 – 1422 (22 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 164’23 – 1457 (57 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’06 (just below the 200 SMA) / 164’01 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 164’14 or 15 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 164’19 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 164’14 or 164’15 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 164’10 – 4 to 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 164’09 (just above the 50 /100 SMAs) and 164’06 (just under the 200 SMA)

Notes: Nice setup for about 5 ticks on the initial reversal. Then it continued to cycle with the swings increasing in span for the next hour. As it bottomed on the S3 Mid Pivot and changed direction with the LOD below, it would have been safe to enter long.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016
Feb 272016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_12_2016 ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_12_2016

2/12/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 168’03
1st Peak @ 167’18 – 0830:30 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 167’24 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 167’16 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 158’01 – 0908 (38 min)
17 ticks

Expected Fill: 167’28 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks on fill / 1 tick on stop
Best Initial Exit: 168’02 – stopped for 6 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 167’18 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Should have been a great 2nd peak trade, but spoiled with initially instability as it reversed quickly and sharply after the initial fill to hit the stop. As the results were positive, you could have entered the market short again after the stop out at 167’26 where it hovered on the 100 SMA between 0830:06 and 0830:18 then captured about 7 ticks in 10 sec. Then 2nd peak achieved 2 more ticks then reversed 17 ticks in about 30 min.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016

 30y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016
Feb 272016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_11_2016

2/11/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.91/2.3
Actual: 2.50/2.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 169’12 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 168’14 – 1302:44 (2 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 168’24 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 168’04 – 1320 (19 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 169’14 – 1438 (97 min)
42 ticks

Expected Fill: 169’08 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 168’15 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 168’28 (12 ticks)

Notes: Large short spike and 2nd peak due the big drop in the Highest yield. Although 25 ticks were available more than likely a modest profit target would have filled earlier. 42 tick reversal after the 2nd peak in a little over an hour.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016

 10y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016
Feb 272016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_10_2016

2/10/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.09/2.8
Actual: 1.73/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 166’14 (1301)
1st Peak @ 166’20 – 1301:36 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 166’13 – 1305 (4 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 167’03 – 1354 (53 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 166’28 – 1407 (66 min)
7 ticks

Expected Fill: 166’16 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 166’19 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 166’19 and 166’21 (just below / above the 100 / 50 SMAs)

Notes: Spike was quick to shoot 6 ticks reaching the 100 SMA then hovering for 20 sec to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed to the 200 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in the next hour.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016
Feb 232016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_4_2016

2/4/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -170B
Actual: -152B
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.988
1st Peak @ 2.003 – 1030:00 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.983 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.026 – 1042 (12 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 2.005 – 1049 (19 min)
21 ticks

Double Top @ 2.026 – 1054 (24 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.991 – 1113 (43 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.999 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 2.001 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.020 – just above the S1 Mid Pivot

Notes: Dull move to barely get a fill long then hover around the fill point for 17 sec for an exit near breakeven. After a reversal it climbed for a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks as it eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then a double top and reversal.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 1.28.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 03-16 (1 Min) 1.28.2016
Feb 232016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 1_28_2016

1/28/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -215B
Actual: -211B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.110
Whipsaw between 2.088 and 2.149 – 1030:11 (1 min)
61 ticks span

Pullback to 2.117 – 1033 (3 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 2.145 – 1047 (2 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 2.123 – 1055 (25 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 2.170 – 1113 (43 min)
51 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.095 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.021 – 26 tick loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Whipsaw initially that developed into a slight long trend to step higher.

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.21.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.21.2016
Feb 232016
 

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1_21_2016

1/21/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -180B
Actual: -178B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.174
1st Peak @ 2.100 – 1031:44 (2 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 2.127 – 1035 (5 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.080 – 1047 (17 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 2.183 – 1208 (98 min)
103 ticks

Pullback to 2.126 – 1241 (131 min)
57 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.161 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.101 – 60 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.132 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Stable short spike offered a low slippage fill as it stepped lower due to major SMAs spread out. After a 2nd peak eclipsed the S1 Pivot, it reversed slowly for over 100 ticks in about 80 min.

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.14.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.14.2016
Feb 232016
 

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1_14_2016

1/14/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -152B
Actual: -168B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.227
1st Peak @ 2.173 – 1030:11 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 2.201 – 1030:21 (1 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.166 – 1033 (3 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 2.189 – 1038 (8 min)
23 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.202 (short)
Slippage: 15 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.174 – 28 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.180 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Stable short spike eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot and LOD then oscillated sideways mostly below the S3 Mid Pivot.

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.7.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.7.2016
Feb 232016
 

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1_7_2016

1/7/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -95B
Actual: -113B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.316
1st Peak @ 2.378 – 1030:39 (1 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 2.358 – 1036 (6 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.394 – 1103 (33 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 2.368 – 1118 (48 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.429 – 1202 (92 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 2.396 – 1210 (100 min)
33 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.339 (long)
Slippage: 13 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.377 – 38 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.355 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: A late peaking reaction as the R1 Pivot held it lower for a little while. Due to the larger offset it would be safe to be patient. It stepped higher for the next 100 min as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot.

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