Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 159K
Actual: 139K
Previous revision: -48K to 127K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’06
1st Peak @ 132’13 – 0817 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 132’05 – 0825 (10 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 20K jobs along with a large 48K downward revision to the previous report. This caused a smaller long reaction that started on the 50 SMA and crossed the 100/200 SMAs, the OOD, and collided with the S1 Mid Pivot for 7 ticks on the : bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 132’10 with 1 tick slippage, then seen it hover between the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. The prudent exit would have been at 132’12 with 2 ticks on the S1 Mid Pivot after seeing the hovering. After the :01 bar, it continued to hover above the 200 SMA for 5 more min before falling back to the origin on the reversal on the next 3 bars.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.3.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/3/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 53.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’16
1st Peak @ 133’11 – 1001 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’23 – 1016 (16 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast, with a reading 0.9 points above the forecast causing a small and shortly sustained bearish reaction. We saw a short spike of 5 ticks on the :01 bar that started just below the R2 Pivot / OOD / 50 SMA then crossed the R2 Mid Pivot and LOD for 5 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’13 with no slippage, then seen it settle to hover in between 133’13 and 133’12 for about 30 sec in the middle of the :01 bar allowing for an exit at breakeven or +1 tick. The quick pullback, lack of 2nd peak attempt and strong reversal were due to breaking news about Russian President Putin’s aggression in the Ukraine which caused a rally on the ZB and overrode the ISM sentiment. Normally we would have seen a stronger push lower for 2-4 more ticks, and/or a solid 2nd peak within 15 min. Instead we saw 12 tick reversal in 15 minutes to the 200 SMA. This is a case where you want to take the proactive step to get out with the hovering even if eating a 1-2 tick loss. Do not watch it slowly march to the 5 tick stop loss.

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 8.1.2013

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

8/1/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 52.8
Actual: 54.6
Previous revision: +0.4 to 52.9
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.5163 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.5206 – 0429 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.5174 – 0440 (12 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 1.5202 – 0449 (20 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.5190 – 0455 (27 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 1.8 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 43 ticks that started on the S1 Pivot and crossed the OOD/HOD and PP Pivot. It hovered between 1.5195 and 1.5206 for the first 11 sec allowing for an easy exit near 1.5200. After the :29 bar, it reversed for 32 ticks back to the 20 SMA on the :40 bar, then rebounded in a failed attempt for a 2nd peak for 28 ticks (4 ticks lower than the 1st peak). This would have been a good opportunity to buy the reversal as it dipped to hit the 13 or 20 SMA, then look to exit with 20 ticks. It continued to oscillate between 1.5190 and the PP Pivot until it finally broke out long about an hour after the report. This is unlikely due to the PMI report, but some other impulse news since it was a 15 tick bar and too much time elapsed since the report.

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 9.2.2013

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

9/2/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 55.2
Actual: 57.2
Previous revision: +0.2 to 54.8
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.5551 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.5592 – 0430 (2 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.5570 – 0452 (24 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 2.0 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 41 ticks that started in the middle of the 3 major SMAs in a tight fist, then broke out to cross the R4 Mid Pivot. It hovered between 1.5584 and 1.5590 for the first 15 sec allowing for an easy exit at about 1.5587. It peaked at 1.5592 on the :30 bar, then reversed for 22 ticks back to the area just above the R3 Pivot and 50 SMA on the :52 bar, then rebounded in a failed attempt for a 2nd peak for 17 ticks (5 ticks lower than the 1st peak) to nearly reach the R4 Mid Pivot. It continued to oscillate around 1.5576 as the movement tightened up as time moved on.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10.1.2013

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

10/1/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 57.5
Actual: 56.7
Previous revision: -0.1 to 57.1
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.6228 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.6200 – 0429 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.6228 – 0431 (3 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 1.6215 – 0432 (4 min)
13 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.6248 – 0522 (54 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 0.8 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 28 ticks that started below the 200/50 SMAs, then broke out to cross the R1 Pivot. Look to exit quickly as the offset is less than 1 pt and the reaction is smaller than normal. An exit within the first 5 sec would have secured an exit no worse than 1.6206, just below the R1 Pivot. After the peak, it reversed later in the :29 bar, leaving 19 ticks on the tail naked. Then it climbed another 9 ticks in the next 2 bars to the 13 SMA and the origin. Then it pulled back for 13 ticks on the next bar and continued to chop sideways around the R2 Mid Pivot, before eventually breaking out long for another 20 ticks on an extended reversal 54 min after the report.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 3.24.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/24/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 51.9
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 49.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 47.9
Actual: 51.4
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 47.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3796
1st Peak @ 1.3839 – 0401 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.3812 – 0404 (4 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report normally breaks 2 min early at 0358, but the protocol was changed on this report to be at 0400. The manufacturing reading came in 2.1 points above the forecast to impress the market with a healthy upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 3.5 points above the forecast with a negligible upward revision. All of this served to cause a large long spike of 43 ticks on the :01 bar that was shortly sustained. It started just underneath the 100/200 SMAs, then crossed the LOD and R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3811 with 12 ticks of slippage then seen it hover between 7 and 10 ticks of profit for most of the rest of the bar. After the opening few seconds, if your profit target was not filled, move the profit target to about 1.3820, just above the R2 Mid Pivot. After the :01 bar, it fell for another 7 ticks to 1.3812 on the :04 bar, then made a small pullback above the R2 Mid Pivot before trading sideways heading into the German report release.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 3.24.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/24/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 54.7
Actual: 53.8
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 54.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.8
Actual: 54.0
Previous Revision: +0.5 to 55.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3815
1st Peak @ 1.3787 – 0431 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.3804 – 0452 (22 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3767 – 0532 (62 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.3776 – 0554 (114 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is now released at :30. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points below the forecast to disappoint with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.8 points below the forecast with a modest upward previous report revision to cause a healthy short spike that was unsustainable due to crossing the PP Pivot, 200/100 SMAs and OOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3801 with 10 ticks of slippage, then a target of up to 13 ticks would filled instantly. After it fell to 1.3787, it retreated to hover in between 1.3804 and 1.3798 for most of the rest of the bar. If not filled with the profit target, look to exit with a handful of ticks. After the :31 bar, it fell to attempt a quick 2nd peak in the next 5 min, but could not conquer the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 17 ticks, crossing the 100/200 SMA on the :52 bar before falling for a slow and late developing 2nd peak of 20 more ticks 1 hour after the report. Then it retreated for 9 ticks back to the 50 SMA.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 6.13.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

6/13/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 96B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.750 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.772 – 1030 (1 min)
22 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.776 – 1031 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 3.733 – 1031 (2 min)
43 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.850 – 1205 (95 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 3.797 – 1406 (216 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report saw a premature long spike of 22 ticks about 8 sec before the news, then after the release, it gained another handful of ticks before reversing for 43 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.764 with about 4 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing of 8 sec early, it is not news based, but leaves little time to capture any profit before the real spike. Close near breakeven (+/- 5 ticks) before the reversal on the matching report hits the stop loss. After the reversal crossed the major SMAs and nearly hit the S1 Pivot, it popped back up for a stepping peaks, using the 20 SMA as support and achieving 100 ticks in about 90 min. Then it corrected back to give up 53 ticks in 2 hrs, crossing the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

6/20/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 89B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.890 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.951 – 1030 (1 min)
61 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.835 – 1031 (2 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 3.927 – 1106 (6 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report saw a premature long spike of 61 ticks about 1-2 sec before the news that hit the PP Pivot, then after the release, it promptly reversed to the 1st peak for 116 ticks, nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.915 with about 15 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing and large sized spike, close out quickly before the reversal on the matching report hits the stop loss. After the reversal completely shot down for 116 ticks, it quickly pulled back up leaving 44 ticks on the tail naked. Then it chopped sideways and eventually gained another 48 ticks for a reversal to the S1 Mid Pivot after about 35 min. A 20-25 tick profit target and a breakeven setting of 20 seems to work well for these reports.

NG 08-13 (1 Min) 6.27.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

6/27/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 89B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.688 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.734 – 1030 (1 min)
46 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.614 – 1031 (2 min)
120 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.563 – 1138 (68 min)
171 ticks

Reversal to 3.597 – 1244 (134 min)
34 ticks

Notes Moderately larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a healthy premature long spike just a few sec before the report that crossed the PP Pivot and hit the OOD, then a consistent news based spike that fell 120 ticks on the next 2 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.698 with no slippage a few min before the premature spike as it was maneuvering. I left it on the chart with a 20 tick profit target that easily filled before the 1st peak sent it south. After the 1st peak, it turned into a downward fan achieving a final peak of 51 more ticks hitting the S3 Pivot in a little over an hour. Then it traded sideways, only able to recover 34 ticks in the next hour. A 20-25 tick profit target and a breakeven setting of 20 seems to work well for these reports.

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