Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.01M
Actual: 0.97M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.54M
Actual: 0.31M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.89M
Actual: -0.34M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 102.74
1st Peak @ 102.82 – 1031 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 102.58 – 1032 (2 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a greater gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected. This news seemed to be mostly balanced to even the scales between the bulls and the bears to cause a dull reaction. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse to fill either side of the bracket until 19 sec into the :31 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. It eventually fell for 16 ticks from the origin as it crossed the 200 SMA. Then it transitioned into large swings: a rally of 37 ticks in 9 min, then a drop of 55 ticks in 5 min, then a rally of 64 ticks in 14 min, before settling down to trade in the range it was before the news.

6C 03-14 (1 Min) 2.21.2014

Core CPI Comments Off

Mar 102014

2/21/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.8948 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8927 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8968 – 0830:41 (1 min)
)))41 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8955 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8979 – 0835:13 (6 min)
)))-42 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8958 – 0849 (19 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8938 (just below the LOD) / 0.8929 (below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8957 (just above the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.8968 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast on the core reading and on the less influential regular CPI reading, but fell well short on the concurrently released retail sales report. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that was large, shooting down 21 ticks to cross the S3 Pivot, then promptly reversing. The short move would have filled both of your short entries and peaked about 2 ticks below the outer bottom tier. Then it would have retreated strongly, reclaiming 41 ticks in 41 sec. If the upper trap bracket was left alone, it would have filled and let you walk away with 29 ticks profit on at least 2 contracts. Results would vary depending upon the exit, but the S2 Pivot would be a good target. The conflicting news aided the conditions as the bearish retail #s drove it short, then the bullish CPI reversed it long and sustained the reaction. It eventually eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot, then chopped between the S2 and S2 Mid Pivots for about 12 min before falling to nearly reach the 3 major SMAs on top of each other on the :19 bar, then it pulled back up and traded sideways.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 2.24.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Mar 102014

2/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 110.7
Actual: 111.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3754
1st Peak @ 1.3773 – 0401 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3758 – 0420 (20 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The reading came in only 0.6 points above the forecast and continues to remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a small decisive and stable spike of 34 ticks that peaked early on the :02 bar as it reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3765 with 7 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture just a few ticks as it hovered between 1 and 8 ticks profit until 25 sec into the :31 bar. With the narrow offset, larger spike, and struggling in vicinity of the R1 Pivot, look to exit with about 5 ticks. After the :01 bar, it chopped sideways underneath the R1 Pivot, then eventually fell to the area of the HOD before the news extended it, claiming 15 ticks in 20 min. Then it settled down and traded sideways near the 50 SMA.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.25.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Mar 112014

2/25/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 80.2
Actual: 78.1
Previous revision: -1.3 to 79.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009794
1st Peak @ 0.009808 – 1001 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009784 – 1026 (26 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of 2.1 points. This caused a 14 tick long spike on the :01 bar that was tame but unsustained, as it started on the R3 Pivot after a 23 tick rally in the last 25 min and crossed the R4 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.009799 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hit 0.009808 before chopping between 0.009797 and 0.009805 up to 53 sec into the :01 bar. Look to exit with 5-6 ticks just above the R4 Mid Pivot. Due to the overbought condition and the strong resistance of the R4 Mid Pivot, it reversed quickly and steadily over the next 25 min, crossing the 50 SMA and the R3 Mid Pivot for 24 ticks. Then it chopped sideways for the better part of an hour.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Mar 112014

2/27/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.19/2.7
Actual: 2.11/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’00 – 1312 (11 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’28 – 1346 (45 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 133’06 – 1504 (123 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.11 continued to fall back after a high of 2.39 in December now that tapering has started. This caused a typical slow but safe move that would have yielded 2-3 ticks after it fell through the 100/200 SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 133’03 with no slippage late on the :04 bar then given you 2-3 ticks of profit on the :07 – :14 bars where it stalled for a few min. After a 2 tick reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks back to the origin in the next 80 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Mar 112014

2/27/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.3% to -1.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.7%
Regular Actual: -1.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -4.2%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009806 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009812 – 0831:59 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.009791 – 0845 (15 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.009799 – 0857 (27 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009806 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009799 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009829 (just below the HOD) / 0.009837 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading exceeding the forecast by 1.2%, while the regular reading fell short of the forecast by 0.3% and weekly unemployment claims came in 15k worse than expected. With the mixed news, the bullish news won the influence battle to cause an 11 ticks short move that peaked not near any barrier. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled long at 0.009806, then seen it only retreat 6 ticks as it hovered tamely between the fill point and 6 ticks of profit. Look to exit with 4-5 ticks after 2 min when it appears to be unable to go higher. It is odd that the claims and regular reading did not cause a larger reversal, but we aware of what the market is giving you. After about 4 min of hovering, it fell for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot in the next 10 min. Then it reversed for 8 ticks, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 2.28.2014

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Mar 122014

2/28/2014 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.6%
Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 132’27
1st Peak@ 132’24 – 0831 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 132’28 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

2nd peak @ 132’23 – 0833 (3 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 0848 (18 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a dull reaction for a short move of only 3 ticks followed by a 4 tick reversal in 4 sec. Contributing to the dull reaction, the 200 SMA ,100 SMA, and S2 Mid Pivot were all within 1 tick of the origin. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 132’25 with no slippage, then you would have seen it hover between Breakeven and 2 ticks in the red for most of the :31 bar. Look to exit at BE or with a 1 tick loss on the dull reaction. After the 1st peak, it was able to fall 1 more tick for a minor 2nd peak on the :33 bar to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot about 15 min later.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 2.26.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 122014

2/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.24M
Actual: 0.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.99M
Actual: -2.81M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.23M
Actual: 0.34M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.37
1st Peak @ 102.70 – 1031 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 102.35 – 1032 (2 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.87 – 1038 (8 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 102.37 – 1058 (28 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Negligible gain in inventories when a greater gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected. The mixed news caused a 33 tick long spike on the :31 bar that was shortly sustained as it crossed the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 102.51 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up about 20 ticks and quickly retreat back to your fill point to hover. This is where a preselected profit target for 10-15 ticks would have been very prudent. Otherwise the best exit would have been with about 3-5 ticks later in the bar. After the :31 bar, the reversal took it down to the origin for 35 ticks as the distillate gain weighed in. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 50 ticks in the next 6 min before falling 50 ticks just before the top of the hour to the 200/100 SMAs. After that it achieved a double top 20 min later then backed off and chopped sideways.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.12.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Mar 122014

3/12/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 15.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 47.3K
Previous Revision: +21.7K to 18.0K
Rate Forecast: 6.0%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE REVERSE (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.9013
1st Peak @ 0.9075 – 2032 (2 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 0.9055 – 2036 (6 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Very positive report that stood in stark contrast to last month. It beat he forecast by 32k jobs and had a previous revision over 20K to strongly impress the traders. If you look at the range chart you see the violent swings after the initial spike lasted 4 sec, before it settled down to trade between 0.9056 and 0.9068 at the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB (limit orders, 10 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would have seen the initial spike blast through long with no fill as it exceeded the 10 ticks of slippage. Then the lowest retracement came down to 0.9031, but the ask only came down to 0.9033. This would have prevented an entry on the retracement by 2 ticks (long entry at 0.9021, 10 tick limit barrier at 0.9031). So with no fill cancel the order. Had we entered at 0.9031 or 0.9033, up to 35 ticks or more could have been captured with ease. The spike eventually hit the top of 0.9075 about halfway through the :32 bar. Then we saw a 20 ticks reversal on the next 4 bars to 0.9055. After that volume dried up and no other significant moves were made as it traded sideways.

6J 06-14 (1 min) 3.14.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 192014

3/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 81.9
Actual: 79.9
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009867 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009874 – 0955:51 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009862 – 0956:49 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009871 – 1001 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009850 – 1010 (15 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009859 (just above the low of 0946 bar) / 0.009852 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009875 (above the R2 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009882 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately lower than the forecast by 2.0 points causing a tame long impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it attempted to cross all 3 major SMAs, but could not scale the 100 SMA. That would have fallen short of the inner short order and exceeded the 20 sec limit, so cancel the order. Interestingly, the price moved 4 ticks lower than our anchor point after the deployment, so a shift of position 2-4 ticks lower on the setup would have possibly seen a fill. It is also a safe report to move the tier in to an area when you see it hovering. In this case it hovered at 0.009870 for about 10 sec, so a shift down to 0.009872 or 0.009873 would have worked out. Then it reversed quickly for 12 ticks about 1 min later. After that it pulled back long for 9 ticks to reach the 50 SMA 4 min later before reversing for 21 ticks in the next 9 min.

Older Entries Newer Entries