6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.22.2016

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.22.2016
May 162016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4_22_2016

4/22/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.4%
Core CPI Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 1.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7854
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7887 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))33 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7858 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))-29 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7889 – 0830:24 (1 min)
)))31 ticks
—————-
Continued Pullback to 0.7899 – 0833 (3 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.7887 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7923 – 1015 (105 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 0.7894 – 1051 (141 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7836 (just below the LOD)
Short entry – 0.7875 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7875 (short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.7859 – 16 ticks (likely exit 0.7875 to 0.7881 – breakeven to 6 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7714 (just below the R1 Pivot

Notes: Double booked with Rtl Sales with all news strongly bullish. This caused a large long spike but still had a quick retracement to the origin in 5 sec. If you were quick in adjusting the profit target to that the 100 SMA area, you could have captured up to 16 ticks, otherwise you would have seen it hover just above the PP Pivot to allow an exit with a few ticks loss. After that it slowly ratcheted higher for the next 2 hrs then backed off.

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016
May 162016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_20166C 06-16 (Second) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7816
—————-
Trap Trade:
))) 1st peak @ 0.7836 – 1000:03 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7802 – 1000:35 (1 min)
)))-34 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7818 – 1000:53 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7804 – 1001:23 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7848 – 1009 (9 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.7822 – 1030 (30 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7800 (just above the LOD) / 0.7791 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7833 (on the OOD) / 0.7843 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Expected Fill: 0.7833 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7803 – 30 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7811 (just below the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)

Notes: The BOC maintained the status quo. This caused a nice slow whipsaw to fill the inner short tier then collapse to just above the LOD 32 sec later. This would have allowed at least 20 ticks to be captured with a little patience and a well placed profit target. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD, then reversed 26 ticks heading into the oil inventory report.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.18.2016

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.18.2016
May 062016
 

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_18_2016

4/18/2016 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 0.7756
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7746 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7756 – 2130:16 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7745 – 2131:47 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7765 – 2138 (8 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 0.7749 – 2147 (17 min)
16 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7748 (on the R1 Pivot) / 0.7741 – No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7764 (just below the HOD) / 0.7771 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7748 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 7762 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 07756 (origin) and 0.7760 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Good setup. It fell to eclipse the R1 Pivot then reverse as it filled the inner long tier. It reversed 10 ticks early allowing about 7 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back and reversed more later allowing more profit with patience. It climbed to stall at the HOD then pulled back 16 ticks.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016
May 062016
 

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016 6A 06-16 (Second) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 18.6K
Employment Change Actual: 26.1K
Previous Revision: -1.0K to -0.7K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7619
1st Peak @ 0.7646 – 2130:15 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7616 – 2030:19 (1 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.7634 – 2031:03 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7614 – 2133 (3 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 0.7628 – 2136 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.7600 – 2153 (23 min)
28 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7630 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7645 – 15 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7646 (in between the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Low slippage fill, but a choppy start out of the gate for the first 9 sec before it settled down briefly just below the HOD. Look to exit there and move the stop up to above the PP Pivot. Shortly after that it collapsed back to the origin then pulled back to the OOD area. If you were not primed to exit early, the unmoved stop would have absorbed the reversal then allowed a few ticks to be captured. After that it drifted lower to extend the LOD.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

 Official Bank Rate  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016
May 052016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_14_20166B 06-16 (1 Range) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.4137
————
Trap Trade:
)))Whipsaw between 1.4163 and 1.4116 – 0700:02
)))+26 / -21 ticks

)))1st Peak @ 1.4171 – 0701:11 (1 min)
)))34 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.4145 – 0708 (8 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.4165 – 0709 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.4139 – 0716 (16 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4127 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot) / 1.4118 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.4147 (just below the 100 SMA) / 1.4157 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: All tiers – avg short 1.4152
Best Initial Exit: 1.4122.5 – avg long – 59 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: As long as your anchor point was with 3 ticks of 1.4137, this would have been an instantaneous profit of almost 60 ticks with the huge whipsaw at launch. After that it peaked at the S2 Mid Pivot then reversed. Another cycle followed then volatility died down.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.12.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.12.2016
May 052016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_12_2016

4/12/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.3%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 2.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.4%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.4281
1st Peak @ 1.4323 – 0430:00 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.4288 – 0430:02 (1 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 1.4315 – 0434 (4 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.4286 – 0438 (8 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Trigger to cancel as a 20 tick short spike and reverse happened 10 sec before the report. Then we saw a 42 tick immediate spike that promptly collapsed. If traded the slippage would have probably exceeded 10 ticks and then put you in the red if not stopped. After that it trickled higher in 3 min before reversing to the 20 SMA. Then it continued to cycle.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

 30y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016
May 042016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.3
Actual: 2.60/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’02 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 165’13 – 1301:47 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’08 – 1301:54 (1 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’18 – 1314 (13 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 165’09 – 1319 (18 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’06 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 165’12 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’12 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike, that peaked immediately on the S1 Mid Pivot. With an appropriate profit target, 6 ticks would have been captured. After that it achieved a 2nd peak for 5 more ticks at the PP Pivot, then reversed 9 ticks.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016
May 042016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 165’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’10 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 165’02 – 0830:44 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
Pullback to 165’09 – 0832 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 164’21 – 0848 (18 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’29 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 164’23 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 165’10 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 165’126 (in between the S1 Mid, PP Pivots)

Expected Fill: 165’10 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 165’03 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’05 (in between the 100/50 SMAs)

Notes: Report caused a nice setup with a quick pop for 7 ticks to fill the inner short tier, then reversed 8 ticks to allow up to 7 ticks to be captured after about 45 sec. After that it pulled back then reversed 20 ticks in 16 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

 10y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016
May 042016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.90/2.5
Actual: 1.77/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’13 (1301)
1st Peak @ 165’21 – 1302:14 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’23 – 1305 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 165’19 – 1308 (7 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 165’28 – 1319 (18 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 165’23 – 1340 (39 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’15 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 165’21 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’18 (just above the 50 SMA) and 165’22 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Slow moving initially, but it turned into a nice spike of 8 ticks as it popped just before the :02 bar expired. This would have allowed up to 6 ticks to be captured when it stalled below the R1 Pivot. It achieved 2 more ticks before a 4 tick reversal and then climbed for a final peak as it rode the 13 SMA upward for another 5 ticks.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016
May 042016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’00
1st Peak @ 165’11 – 0830:12 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’04 – 0833 (3 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’17 – 0845 (15 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 164’28 – 0940 (70 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’04 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 165’10 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’10 (just above the PP Pivot) or 165’12 (on the HOD) – move lower

Notes: With all the results bearish and the PPI also in agreement, we saw a nice stable long spike of 11 ticks that climbed and hovered in between the PP Pivot and HOD. Look to exit at 165’09 or 10 with the hovering. After a 7 tick reversal it climbed to a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 14 min to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 21 ticks in about an hour.