6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016

 GBP Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016
Apr 152016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_1_2016

4/1/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 51.4
Actual: 51.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4363
1st Peak @ 1.4348 – 0431:45 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.4360 – 0434 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4314 – 0452 (22 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 1.4335 – 0458 (28 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4359 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4349 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4344 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Small and slow moving short spike due to a narrow offset. This would have seen a no slippage fill and easy exit with up to 10 ticks. After a reversal it settled into a short trend for a large 2nd peak of 34 more ticks to the S2 Pivot.

ES 06-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016

 HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on ES 06-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016
Apr 142016
 

ES 06-16 (1 Min) 3_31_2016

3/31/2016 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.3
Actual: 49.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2052.00
1st Peak @ 2054.00 – 2145:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 2050.50 – 2145:48 (1 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 2051.75 – 2147 (2 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 2047.75 – 2211 (26 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 2052.75
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2054.00 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2054.50 (just above the PP Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Small and unsustained spike for the size of the offset. As it was bucking the short trend after the CNY manufacturing report and ran into the PP Pivot, it collapsed on the back end of the :46 bar. If you are still open and you see it start to retreat from the PP Pivot, be careful and exit or move the stop up to the 50 SMA area. After that it reversed for 14 ticks, then 16 ticks after a small pullback.

ES 06-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016

 Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on ES 06-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016
Apr 142016
 

ES 06-16 (1 Min) 3_31_2016

3/31/2016 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2051.25 (moved at 2059:42)
1st Peak @ 2053.50 – 2059:53 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 2052.25 – 2101 (1 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 2056.00 – 2116 (16 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 2052.00 – 2135 (35 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 2052.00
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2053.25 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2053.00 (just above the OOD / 200 SMA) / 2054.25 (just above the LOD / PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike on the ES for a no slippage fill hovered above the OOD to allow an easy 4-5 ticks to be captured. Then a 2nd peak 15 min later allowed another 10 ticks to be taken. After that it reversed 16 ticks to the 100 SMA.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016
Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_30_2016

3/30/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.30M
Actual: 2.30M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.18M
Actual: -2.51M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.03M
Actual: -1.08M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 39.42
Whipsaw between 39.17 and 39.65 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-15/+23 ticks

1st Peak @ 39.77 – 1030:47 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 39.54 – 1032 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 39.85 – 1033 (3 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 39.28 – 1051 (21 min)
57 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 39.30 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 39.45 – stopped out for 15 ticks loss with no slippage
Recommended Profit Target placement: 39.10 (just below the 200 SMA)

Notes: Whipsaw in the first second would have only stopped you stopped you out for a 15 tick loss with no slippage. After that it settled down and climbed for 1st and 2nd peak with a reversal in between. Then it fell into a selloff for over an hour to the LOD.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.23.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.23.2016
Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_23_2016

3/23/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.09M
Actual: 9.36M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.48M
Actual: -4.64M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.06M
Actual: 0.92M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 40.58
1st Peak @ 40.22 – 1030:32 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 40.79 – 1032 (2 min)
57 ticks

2nd Peak @ 40.17 – 1039 (9 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 40.58 – 1050 (20 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: 40.46 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 40.23 – 23 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 40.23 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Big draw on the crude caused a nice short spike of 36 ticks to the S2 Pivot offering up to 23 ticks with an easily placed profit target. Then a strong reversal followed by a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016
Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.41M
Actual: 1.32M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.34M
Actual: -0.75M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -1.14M
DULL FILL
Started @ 39.04
1st Peak @ 39.33 – 1030:00 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 38.99 – 1030:22 (1 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 39.32 – 1030:36 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 38.82 – 1034 (4 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 39.31 – 1045 (15 min)
49 ticks

Expected Fill: 39.19 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 39.19 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 39.36 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Unsustainable long spike reached the HOD then promptly recoiled. It hovered at the fill point for 4 sec before dropping and hovering 9 ticks lower. Either place would have presented an opportunity to exit near the entry or for a smaller loss than a full stop out. Otherwise the stop would have been taken after about 13 sec. After that it oscillated between the HOD and 50 SMA with one excursion to the 100 SMA.

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016
Apr 112016
 

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3_22_2016

3/22/2016 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 6.3
Actual: 4.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 9934.0
1st Peak @ 9917.0 – 0600:33 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 9937.5 – 0601:20 (2 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 9922.5 – 0604 (4 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 9957.5 – 0605 (5 min)
70 ticks

Expected Fill: 9930.0 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9918.0 – 24 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9914.0 (just above the 50 SMA) – move slightly higher

Notes: Nice moderate short spike but be sure to exit after seeing hovering and an early reversal start to materialize. It eventually reversed to the S1 Mid Pivot.

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016
Apr 112016
 

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3_22_2016

3/22/2016 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 106.1
Actual: 106.7
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 9874.5
1st Peak @ 9869.0 – 0500:05 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 9910.0 – 0500:50 (1 min)
82 ticks

Pullback to 9874.0 – 0505 (5 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 9916.0 – 0515 (15 min)
84 ticks

Pullback to 9874.5 – 0524 (24 min)
83 ticks

Expected Fill: 9571.5
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9571.5 (Breakeven after 10 sec) otherwise likely exit stopped for 10 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9850.00 area (just above the 50 SMA)

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016
Apr 102016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3_18_2016

3/18/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.5%
Core CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7711
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7731 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7719 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7727 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7709 – 0834 (4 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7738 – 0849 (19 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7704 – 0920 (50 min)
34 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7690 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7731 (on the R2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7731 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.7720 – 11 ticks (0.7710 if patient)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7714 (just below the R1 Pivot

Notes: Good setup with Rtl sales conflicting with the CPI. The spike was 20 ticks, so if you chose to place the short entry at 0.7732 or 7733, it would not have filled, but there was opportunity to shift it lower during the hovering at the top. Quick reversal for 12 ticks with another 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the 50 SMA. Then a nice 2nd peak followed by a reversal.

 Older Entries  Newer Entries