6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016

 Quarterly GDP  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3_1_2016

3/1/2016 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7163
1st Peak @ 0.7208 – 1931:05 (2 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.7201 – 1931:07 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7232 – 1942 (12 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 0.7214 – 1952 (22 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7172 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7207 – 35 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7196 (just above the R1 Pivot) and 0.7208 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: A stable setup and low slippage fill on a healthy spike to the R2 Mid Pivot. On these bigger quarterly reports on the 6A, it is okay to be patient for a few more ticks as it will have biased sentiment for a while without wanting to reverse. Here we saw basically continuous upward momentum until the R2 Pivot was reached for the first 4 min. Then it achieved a 2nd peak a few min later and settled into a sideways channel. Not advisable to trade reversals on these trades.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_29_2016

2/29/2016 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor point @ 0.7115
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7123 – 2230:02 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7111 – 2230:15 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7127 – 2231:59 (2 min)
)))16 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7117 – 2234 (4 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7136 – 2304 (34 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.7127 – 2328 (58 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7095 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.7082 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7136 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.7147 (on the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small move but typical whipsaw. Cancel the orders on the small move. It eventually trended long to reach the PP Pivot on a 2nd peak.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016

 Building Approvals  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_29_2016

2/29/2015 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.9%
Actual: -7.5%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to 8.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7132
1st Peak @ 0.7120 – 1931:27 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.7125 – 1933 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7116 – 1940 (10 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7122 – 1945 (15 min)
6 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7128 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.7121 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7122 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: 1st peak would have reached the S1 Pivot, then a small reversal followed by a 2nd peak for a few more ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016
Mar 262016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 53.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008807
1st Peak @ 0.008798 – 1000:19 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008816 – 1006 (6 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 0.008801 – 1009 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.008814 – 1027 (27 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008804 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008799 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008794 (in between the PP Pivot and 100 SMA)

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a 9 tick short spike that was fleeting after 29 sec. Another lesson to watch the forex factory results and be sure to exit quickly when you have profit on a near match, as a quick reversal is likely.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016
Mar 262016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3_1_2016

3/1/2016 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 49.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008838
1st Peak @ 0.008816 – 1002:09 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.008827 – 1008 (8 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008788 – 1039 (39 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 0.008810 – 1059 (59 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008834 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008817 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008824 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot / LOD)

Notes: Nice spike that carried through into the 3rd bar for over 20 ticks. Then a reversal to the falling 13 SMA offering a nice 2nd peak entry to ride the 13 SMA for 30+ ticks in 30 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2015

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2015
Mar 242016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -49B
Actual: -48B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.649
1st Peak @ 1.675 – 1030:02 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.654 – 1033 (3 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.681 – 1038 (8 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.645 – 1043 (13 min)
36 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.695 – 1111 (41 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 1.658 – 1125 (55 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.659 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.674 – 15 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.683 (above the HOD) or 1.691 (just above the PP Pivot) – move to 1.674 (above the OOD)

Notes: No slippage fill due to the small move. Then ample opportunity to exit at the OOD. Then it cycled a few times to step to a 2nd and final peak with nice reversals in between. The 3 candle bottom on the major SMAs at 1043-5 offered a nice buy opportunity.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016
Mar 242016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -125B
Actual: -117B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.790
1st Peak @ 1.751 – 1030:00 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 1.770 – 1031:26 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.747 – 1047 (17 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.761 – 1049 (19 min)
14 ticks

Double Bottom @ 1.747 – 1103 (33 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.777 – 1124 (54 min)
30 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.774 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.753 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.745 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) – move about 10 ticks higher

Notes: Quick move fell 39 ticks, then hovered mostly within 8 ticks of the low to allow 15-20 ticks profit before reversing 19 ticks in the next min. Then it used the falling 13 SMA as resistance to fall for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot. After a double bottom a nice reversal to the S2 Pivot / 100 SMA.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016

 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016
Mar 232016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_24_2016

2/24/2016 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -3.1%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.8% to -8.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7185
Whipsaw between 0.7196 and 0.7175 – 1930:03 (1 min)
21 tick span

1st Peak @ 0.7200 – 1930:07 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7161 – 1933 (3 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 0.7173 – 1939 (9 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.7154 – 2002 (32 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7191 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7179 – 12 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: First indecisive reaction seen on this report in the last 3 yrs due to unforeseen reasons. As it fell, it used the falling 13/20 SMAs as resistance while it stepped lower.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.23.2016

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.23.2016
Mar 232016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2_23_2016

2/23/2016 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 107.0
Actual: 105.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9510.5
1st Peak @ 9516.5 – 0400:08 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 9506.5 – 0400:36 (1 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 9493.5 – 0405 (5 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9526.0 – 0409 (9 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 9513.5
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9515.5 (4 ticks)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9521.00 area (just above the 200 SMA) – move lower

Notes: Report caused a small initial move that lasted about 12 sec before reversing. If left alone, the stop would have been taken after 14 sec. After seeing the hovering and reluctance to launch, move the stop up to Breakeven or just below and look to exit. It reversed to the OOD before pulling back to eclipse the 200 SMA.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016
Mar 222016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)

Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.3918
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3930 – 0430:21 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3901 – 0432:44 (3 min)
)))-29 ticks
————
2nd Peak to 1.3939 – 0450 (20 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.3910 – 0505 (35 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3908 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot/ LOD) / 1.3898 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.3929 (just below the 200 SMA) / 1.3939 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: A fill just before the time to cancel on the inner short tier, then a nice reversal allowing up to 27 ticks to be captured. A target at the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot would have been prudent. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak to the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing again.

 Older Entries  Newer Entries