30y Bond Auction | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.9.2015

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Aug 092015

7/9/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.14/2.5
Actual: 3.08/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’10 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 151’28 – 1302:20 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 152’03 – 1308 (7 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 151’18 – 1326 (25 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 151’26 – 1330 (29 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month as the bid to cover also dropped. This caused the bonds to spike short for 14 ticks in about 70 sec as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 152’05 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to drop and trickle down to hover around 151’29 to allow about 8 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 7 ticks in 5 min to the S3 Mid Pivot / 13 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 18 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.13.2015

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Sep 142015

8/13/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.08/2.2
Actual: 2.88/2.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 157’31 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 157’15 – 1301:45 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 157’31 – 1314 (13 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 157’22 – 1320 (19 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 158’10 – 1353 (52 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield fell substantially from last month as the bid to cover ticked up. This caused the bonds to spike short for 16 ticks at 1301:38 as it started on the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD in 7 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket you would have filled short at 157’26 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to drop to hover around 157’16 to allow about up to 10 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 16 ticks in 12 min back to the origin before pulling back 9 ticks in 6 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 33 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot / OOD.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9.10.2015

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Dec 132015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9_10_2015

9/10/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.88/2.3
Actual: 2.98/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 153’31 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 154’07 – 1302:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 154’01 – 1302:59 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 154’13 – 1307 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 153’18 – 1402 (61 min)
27 ticks

Expected Fill: 154’02 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 154’06 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’10 (below the OOD) – move lower after the initial spike

Notes: Recoil on the initial spike due to crossing the PP Pivot. The 5 tick stop would have absorbed the drop.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.8.2015

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Dec 132015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10_8_2015

10/8/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.98/2.5
Actual: 2.91/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 157’08 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 157’12 – 1301:58 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 157’07 – 1302:43 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 157’15 – 1309 (8 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 156’29 – 1342 (41 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 157’11 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 157’13 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’17 (on the 200 SMA) – move lower after the initial spike

Notes: The PP Pivot and 100/50 SMAs prevented the market from breaking out long.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 11.12.2015

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Dec 132015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 11_12_2015

11/12/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.91/2.5
Actual: 3.07/2.4
INDECISIVE
Started @ 152’27 (1301)
1st Peak @ 152’16 – 1301:33 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 153’06 – 1302:02 (1 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 152’29 – 1303 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 153’05 – 1310 (9 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 152’21 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: Stopped @ 152’26 – 5 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 152’18 (above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Rare whipsaw on a usually reliable safe report. The swings afterward are expected and tradeable after a whipsaw.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12.10.2015

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Dec 132015

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12_10_2015

12/10/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.07/2.4
Actual: 2.98/2.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 155’08 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 155’02 – 1301:58 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 155’19 – 1351 (50 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 155’01 – 1501 (120 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 155’13 – 1526 (145 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’05 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 155’03 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’31 (on the PP Pivot) – move higher after the initial spike

Notes: Muted reaction could not fall below the OOD.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.14.2016

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Jan 152016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_14_2016

Caption for 1/14:
1/14/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.98/2.4
Actual: 2.91/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 157’14 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 157’02 – 1303:40 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 157’11 – 1318 (17 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 156’30 – 1332 (32 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 157’07 – 1346 (45 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 157’10 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 157’03 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’05 or 04 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Nice short spike used the 50 SMA as a springboard to go short and again for the 2nd peak. Nice 2nd peak opportunity to short it between the 20 and 50 SMAs at 157’10 or 09.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.9.2014

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Jan 112014

1/9/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.90/2.4
Actual: 3.90/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 129’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’06 – 1303 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 129’10 – 1310 (9 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 129’04 – 1337 (36 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose stayed the same from last month but the bid to cover ratio was slightly higher signifying greater demand. This caused the bonds to rally for 6 ticks as it started just above the R1 Pivot and crossed the 200 SMA and R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 129’02 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 3-4 ticks if you were patient. With the R2 Pivot at 129’05, a target there or 1 tick higher would have been ideal. It continued to rise for 4 more ticks in the next 7 min, then it reversed for 6 ticks back to the 50 SMA and R2 Pivot in the next 27 min.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 12.12.2013

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Dec 202013

12/12/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.81/2.2
Actual: 3.90/2.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 129’09 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’03 – 1306 (5 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 129’13 – 1317 (16 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month but, continuing the high rise since May as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. This caused the bonds to fall for 6 ticks, in a delayed reaction as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the LOD / S1 Pivot in 5 bars. With JOBB you would have filled short at 129’06 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 1-2 ticks as it hovered below the 200/100 SMAs. After reaching the LOD, it was unable to penetrate, so the reversal took over for 10 ticks in the next 10 min. It climbed to reach the S1 Mid Pivot, then backed off and traded sideways.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.14.2013

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Nov 252013

11/14/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.76/2.6
Actual: 3.81/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 132’20 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’11 – 1302 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’17 – 1320 (19 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’05 – 1354 (53 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 132’12 – 1413 (72 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’22 – 1529 (148 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month continuing the high rise since May as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. This caused the bonds to fall for 9 ticks as it started on the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 132’14 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 2 ticks at most on the initial burst. Given the rarity of 2nd peaks in the past few weeks, it would be safe to get out with a modest gain, and if you waited for the 2nd peak, the interpeak reversal would have taken you 3 ticks in the red as it hit the 50 SMA. After the reversal, it fell for 6 more ticks in about 30 min to reach the OOD. Then it commenced a slow developing reversal that achieved 7 ticks in 20 min, and 10 more ticks in about 80 min.

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