11/8/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0801 HI time / 1301 EST)
Previous: 2.90/2.5
Actual: 2.82/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 150’00 (0801)
1st Peak @ 150’27 – 0802 (1 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 151’13 – 0831 (30 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 151’00 – 0903 (62 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield dropped more than expected from the previous auction, signifying much higher demand for the bonds in lieu of the election results. With JOBB you would fill long at 150’03 with no slippage. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs at the origin, the PP / R1 Pivots, and HOD at varying points up the spike. Since it blew through all of these potential areas of resistance and finished the bar 1 tick off of the max, stay on the ride until the end and close out with 20 or more ticks. After the 1st peak, it ratcheted higher for the next 30 min, crossing the R2 Pivot and peaking at 151’13 for 45 ticks total. The reversal reclaimed 13 ticks in about half an hour back to the R2 Pivot. By far the best auction trade yet!

09/13/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0531 HI time / 1131 EDT)
Previous: 2.83/2.4
Actual: 2.90/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’00 (0531)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0533 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 148’01 – 0534 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 0630 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose minimally from the previous auction, continuing the rise off of the low in July. With less demand for the bonds, the yield rose, causing the ZB to spike long from sitting on the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would fill long at 148’03. With the HOD established about 90 min earlier at 148’09, keep an eye on it as it approaches that threshold. As the :02 bar bounced off of 148’08 and the :03 bar garnered 1 more tick to touch the HOD, exit around 148’08 if possible for about 5 ticks. The resistance at 148’09 is strong as it caused the reversal nearly back to the 100 SMA. Then it oscillated between 148’01 and 148’06 for 30 min before trending higher. It hit a 2nd peak at 148’14 at the R2 Pivot right before the FED announced open ended QE3 which caused a nosedive. I did not list the final reversal due to the large move and lack of association to the auction.

07/12/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.4
Actual: 2.58/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’06 (0701)
1st Peak @ 152’12 – 0703 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 152’05 – 0709 (8 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 152’16 – 0730 (29 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 152’10 – 0750 (49 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield of 2.58 is the lowest in years, indicating high demand for the bonds with the dollar and equities unattractive. This caused a relatively tame reaction for the bonds, as the yield rose by only 6 ticks peaking at the start of the :03 bar. With JOBB you would fill long at 152’09, just above the 200/100 SMAs, then have seen arresting upward movement as it stalled 2 ticks above the fill. With the HOD 1 tick higher, the next bar rose to touch it, then fell. Close out with 1-3 ticks as it flirts with the HOD. After the 1st peak was achieved, it retreated to the origin, then traded sideways before the :28 – :30 bars climbed to a 2nd peak of only 10 ticks. The reversal was able to retreat to the 50 SMA for 6 ticks before rising again. All in all a relatively dull auction even with the record low yield.

05/10/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.23/2.8
Actual: 3.09/2.7
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 144’00 (0701)
1st Peak @ 144’17 – 0704 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 144’09 – 0709 (8 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 144’22 – 0811 (70 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 144’31 – 1047 (226 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield of 3.09 is lower than last month causing the bonds to spike long for 17 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs then the S1 Pivot on its upward path. With JOBB you would fill long at 144’03, on top of the 100 SMA, then have seen it shoot upward. As it had no problem crossing the SMAs, watch the interaction with the S1 Pivot. The :03 bar hovered between the S1 and 2 ticks above, so I would close out there at 144’12 for 9 ticks. It did go higher on the :04 bar, but that is not assured, and it left the entire wick naked. After the 1st peak was achieved, it retreated to the S1 Pivot, then slowly ascended to the 2nd Peak. After that it traded sideways in a 5 tick range before climbing another 9 ticks at the end of the trading day.